Preseason Preview: Twins

(Frickin' dammit. Netscape had to go and freeze just as I was putting the finishing touches on a pinnacle of incisive, brilliant baseball analysis, aka my Twins preview. If this is not witty, insightful, or even coherent, it's not my fault. It was undoubtedly all in the other post).

So it's Thursday night and you know what I'm not doing. Instead, I've moved on to the Central, and it's time to check out who I personally believe will be the division champs - the Twins. They swiped every major award this year - they sport a Cy Young winner (Santana) an MVP (Morneau) and a batting champion (Mauer). Not to mention perennial Gold Glover Torii Hunter, even if he only got it this year in recognition of his amazing leaps at the wall to steal homers away from a number of disgruntled sluggers. There is a lot of talent on this team and I think it will pay off. Despite the Tigers' fairy-tale transformation from 43-119 pathetic punchline in 2003 to AL Champs in 2006, I can't help but feel that they overachieved just a bit and not even tobacco-chewing crusty curmudgeon Jim Leyland can steer them to two crowns in a row. The White Sox still have a potent offense, but their pitching has declined since their "If the Red Sox can do it, we can too!" world championship in 2005. Even without Francisco Liriano, lost for the entirety of the 2007 season due to that pernicious Tommy John surgery, this Twins team is very good and very scary. Although I am an amateur baseblogger with emphasis on the amateur, and could very easily be mistaken, I still feel as if this is the team to beat. With that said, let's take a look.

The Minnesota Twins

Rotation
1. Johan Santana, LHP
2. Boof Bonser, RHP
3. Carlos Silva, RHP
4. Ramon Ortiz, RHP
5. Matt Garza, RHP

Bullpen
1. Joe Nathan, RHP
2. Jesse Crain, RHP
3. Dennys Reyes, RHP
4. Juan Rincon, RHP
5. Matt Guerrier, RHP
6. Glen Perkins, LHP
7. Pat Neshek, RHP

Lineup
1B Justin Morneau
2B Luis Castillo
SS Jason Bartlett
3B Nick Punto
RF Michael Cuddyer
CF Torii Hunter
LF Lew Ford
C Joe Mauer
DH Jason Kubel

The 500 Word Rundown
As I've stated above, I do believe that the Twins are the team to beat in the Central. That rotation isn't as good as it could be with Liriano so conspicuously absent, but there aren't a whole lot of teams that wouldn't be better with a 23-year-old left-handed Santana clone in there, who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA. Yeah. Good. You can still see why Giants fans are still kicking themselves in agony over the trade that sent Liriano, closer extraordinaire Joe Nathan, and young starter Boof Bonser (yes, Boof, born John, apparently) to the Twins in exchange for serial troublemaker A.J. Pierzynski. Despite that, the Twins still have the best pitcher in baseball, one Johan Santana, and the AL MVP, emerging masher Justin Morneau.

All this in addition to a Gold Glove-winning center fielder (Hunter) who clubbed 31 HR and 98 RBI last year, a 23-year-old catcher (Mauer) who won the batting title with a full-season mark of .347, and a right fielder (Cuddyer) who hit .284 with 24 HR and 109 RBI. This is not a team to underestimate and take lightly. They started off slowly last year, but roared to a second-half rocket finish with a 96-66 record after the Tigers couldn't clinch the Central - they lost three straight games to the Kansas City Royals, and this is one of the reasons, albeit a very minor one, that I'm picking against the Motor City Kitties. They subsequently recovered and dispatched of the Yankees and A's en route to their first AL pennant since 1984, but put on a horror show to tumble in five to the Cardinals in the Fall Classic. (Not that I'm not happy about this, mind you, but I just have a feeling, which of course could be entirely mistaken, that the Tigers aren't going to get quite so high for a second consecutive year).

The Tigers also mainly feasted on their own division, posting a 45-30 mark against Central foes, but weren't quite so fearsome against the rest of the league, going 16-17 against the East and 19-17 against the West. By contrast, the Twins went 41-35 against the Central, but 22-13 against the East and 17-16 against the West. They still do have all those award-winners, and even if they don't have Liriano this year, they have his return to anticipate in '08, in which they should be the clear-cut favorites. And of course, they still have Johan Santana. A man who may be a machine, or an escaped military-level cyborg, Santana went 19-6 with a 2.77 ERA and 245 K to (justly) claim his second Cy in three seasons after a brief lapse to lose it to Bartolo Colon in 2005. (Oh, the heresy. Talk to me about Fatolo later).

In short, I'm not picking against the Twins. They have the pieces to put it together again in Minneapolis, and if they do so, they're going to be quite a force in the AL, in the regular season and beyond. It's like with the Yankees. Aside from Santana, their rotation isn't fearsome, but with those hitters, and with Nathan closing things out, they're going to win a damn lot of games anyway.

Projected Finish: 94-68, AL Central Champions

Oh Shit

The Detroit Tigers are lucky they got that playoff spot sewn up before they played the terrifying Kansas City Royals (62-100 final record). Today, the Tigers, despite holding a 10-game lead on average throughout the entire season, coughed up the AL Central division title to the ferocious upstarts, the Twins.

This is bad. This means that the A's will now face the Twins in the first round of the playoffs. This also means that if the series goes 5 games, they draw Johan Santana twice, both times in the Metrodome, where he is absolutely unbeatable (hasn't lost a start there since August 2005). Plus, the Twins are storming into the postseason aboard a wave of serious momentum and already have perpetual A's-killers Michael Cuddyer and Justin Morneau, plus AL Batting Champion Joe Mauer. Basically, the Twins are very, very scary in a 5-game series. Ulp.

I'd be lying if I said that my hopes just took a dip. There is, of course, a silver lining: the Twins hit .204 off Game 1 (and 5, if necessary) starter, Barry Zito. (Of course, the A's hit .186 off Santana, with the exception of Frank Thomas, who carries a .375 clip). And the Twins scored 4 runs in 4 games in Oakland, so if we can somehow steal one in the Metrodome and then seal the deal on our home turf...

I'm scared.

Screw the Tigers. I hope the Yankees take them out.... no wait, I don't. I hate the Yankees even more, and if Alex Rodriguez gets a World Series ring, I'm committing hara-kiri.

The Cards will face either the Padres or the Dodgers in the NLDS. They handled the Padres pretty easily last year, and they swept the Dodgers in the season series, 7-0, which could be good or bad. Good: They can handle them. Bad: The Dodgers would likely have a chip on their shoulder because of this.

I just am not good with pressure. But bring on Tuesday, nonetheless...

I Hate Joe Kennedy

(Or, you learn where my loyalties lie. This is a preview of what is to come: long posts re: the Oakland A's and St. Louis Cardinals, with the Colorado Rockies thrown in for variety. I told you that a lot of this blog would deal with baseball).

Situation: Oakland A's 5, Minnesota 3, bottom of the eighth at the House of Horrors in Minneapolis better known as the Twinkie Dome, better known as the Metrodome. A's doing their best to hang on to a 5.5 game lead in the AL West and slice their magic number down in a desperate attempt to fend off their usual September slide and another humiliating choke to the Los Angeles Angels of Orange County California USA. I think they may do it this year, but sure as hell not if what just happened happens again.

Joe Kennedy is somebody who I've never understood Athletics' management's fixation with. Great ERA, because he lets everyone else's runners score instead of his own, sort of like the Jose Mesa of the AL. Terrible WHIP of 1.71, last time I checked. (In case you don't speak Baseballese, this number is an estimation of the number of walks and hits a pitcher permits per inning. In this example, it means Kennedy allows nearly two baserunners per inning). And it just bit him in the ass... I knew we weren't going to get through the meat of the Twins' lineup unscathed, and sure enough, JFK coughs up 3 runs to give the Twins a 6-5 edge.

(Note: I exaggerated. According to Yahoo! Sports, JFK's WHIP is 1.25. Still not stellar).

Now, it's not over yet, and Twinks closer Joe Nathan threw 30+ pitches last night, so there's still hope, but the A's absolutely must end this jackassery of bullpen management. Justin Duchscherer and Kiko Calero are the go-to guys in late, tight, close games that you really need to win late in the season, and Calero was kept in long enough to get a double play in the seventh, then pulled. Duchscherer was brought in to close the barn door after Kennedy had kindly let all the cows out.

Agh... I just can't stand this. September is going to turn my hair gray. Memo to Ken Macha: Use Kennedy if you must. Certainly not in situations like this. I just don't trust him, and I never have.

Update: 7-5 Twins win. Ugh..... wow, there hasn't been a loss that felt so much like a punch to the gut in a long time. I guess I know that I am unhealthily invested in the outcome of baseball games, and I've been trying to lessen my addiction, but apparently it hasn't worked. I feel like crying. The LAAAA can't keep losing on every night that we do.

I guess painting my fingernails green and gold didn't help much. Excuse me, I'm going to go crawl off into my corner now.