Showing posts with label Trade Rumors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade Rumors. Show all posts

Monday, May 21, 2007

Go Off The Atkins Diet?

There are assorted rumors floating around the baseball blogosphere that Garrett Atkins may be moved. He's high on the Angels' wish list, as they too have a cumulatively punchless offense and are looking to upgrade at the hot corner. Talks haven't been serious and it's been mentioned before that Atkins is unlikely to be traded, as he is looked to as a fixture of the young club's core and, with Matt Holliday, is expected to give the franchise a few more "name-brand" stars once Todd Helton goes. Despite Todd's stated wish not to move anywhere once the season started, it appears that Boston, New York, and Atlanta will all have interest in him this summer. Boston has one or two young minor-league studs that they might be enticed to part with if it meant Helton in return, Atlanta may have to give up one of their young major-leaguers (don't know about the state of their farm system, but something tells me that because they were so good until last year, their consistently low draft picks may not have helped them out). As for the Yankees, their farm system is picked to the bone and the only real stud they've developed is Phil Hughes, who's untouchable especially since his rotation mates are dropping like flies. Robinson Cano is a name mentioned, but only in passing, since it's unlikely the Yanks would deal an All-Star second baseman.

Nah, the greedy bastards will probably just try to get Helton and peddle Kyle Farnsworth back in return. Even worse, Dan O'Dowd might fall for it. My biggest fear is that O'Dowd would decide to get equal monetary value for Helton, and take on a package of bad relievers/low-end prospects just because their total salaries equal out to what Helton's making. Helton himself is enjoying a marvelous resurgence, among the NL batting average leaders, and has jacked his on-base percentage up over .500. It'd be hard to get what he's worth, and I have my doubts that O'Dowd will insist on the right deal. I'd be upset to see Helton go, especially after he's stuck out so many losing seasons in Colorado and never complained, but I'd part with him for the right price. That includes at least one young and good, proven major-leaguer and not just a hopeful prospect.

While I'm not happy about this possible move either, it makes more sense from a purely business standpoint -- clearing Helton's cumbersome salary off the books might provide enough open revenue to re-sign Holliday once he finishes his last year of arbitration eligibility in 2009 and hits free agency. Seeing as the Dev -- apologies, I keep doing that -- Scott Boras is his agent, it's more likely that he'd head for the open market instead and try to get a king's ransom, which Boras will certainly supply. That said, there is an even more nightmarish scenario that the Rockies trade Helton, trade Atkins, and fail to re-sign Holliday anyway. Where does that leave them? Back at square one with a team of young prospects, just like always, and that would leave me frustrated beyond measure. But the current logistics being discussed about Atkins (although not in any depth, and just as names matched up by each club as having interest) would ship Garrett to Anaheim (heeuurgh) for Ervin Santana and possibly Brandon Wood as well, but that may require an extra player, possibly Koshansky. I do not like this deal for a number of reasons. Here's why.

I am not at all sold on Santana (unless you're talking about Johan, which I somehow doubt). His current numbers are 3-5/5.06 and that isn't that different, and is in fact worse, than what we've already been running out there. Not to mention that ghastly home/road split: Ervin's an other-Santana-like 3-1/2.33 within the confines of Angel Stadium, while he morphs into a Mike Hampton-like 0-4/7.86 on the road. He is young (25 in December) but our track record with pitching prospects isn't that great. I'm not sure about Wood, as why would we need another young third baseman if we're going to ship Atkins out with the express intention of having Stewart take over? Wood is hitting .237/5/21 at Triple-A Salt Lake, and I admittedly don't know that much about him, but I wonder if he'd be able to produce at the big-league level. Minor-league stats are a gaudy thing... until you get to the Show.

There's also the question of what would happen if the Rockies shipped both Helton and Atkins out, then didn't re-sign Holliday -- what kind of message would that send? "Okay, we got a couple good years out of these guys, now it's back to the rebuilding phase yet again?" If, as is widely speculated, Joe Koshansky may not be ready to contribute at the big-league level, who will play first? There are other scenarios tossed around of clearing off the payroll by trading Helton, promoting highly regarded prospect Ian Stewart to play the hot corner, and moving Atkins back to his natural position at first. But if both Helton and Atkins are gone, are we willing to take our chances on Koshansky and Stewart? What would the Rockies be saying if they got rid of guys every time they finally became legit major-league players and no longer "prospects?" Young players are the future of the game, but I for one get a little tired of the constant turnover within the organization. This may be a complete pipe dream, but I wish management would stick with their established players a little longer.

I'm not sure that the slow start for Garrett this year heralds the start of a steep decline, as there are a number of other stars, even the infallible Pujols, who haven't really found their swings. He's still young, still good, under club control until 2011, and only making $400,000, and it's rare to find players with all those traits. So although everyone may be frustrated by his somnolent offensive performance to date (including myself, mind you) I don't think we need to hit the panic button and ship him out just yet.

Is Wood actually a bonafide talent, and not just another highly-achieving minor leaguer that will sputter out once he hits the Show? I'd be leery of trading for him now, since his minor league experience is limited to 11 at-bats and 1 hit. Likewise, if he's projected to be as good as everyone thinks he can be, then why can't the Angels put some time into the Rockies' favorite catchword, and develop him? I'm not arguing against acquiring him, but I am arguing against acquiring him just because he's "supposed" to be good. If we're thinking about making a 3B-for-3B swap and the production is currently about at equal levels, then what would be the point? (For both Anaheim and us, for that matter. It seems they'd be more keen on keeping a 22-year-old than trading for a 27-year-old, but the Angels have placed a premium on single-season production in the past). If they need an upgrade at the hot corner, then if Atkins doesn't provide much more and possibly less than Wood, why would they pull the trigger? I suspect Stoneman may be trying to buy low and hope he can groom Atkins back into the player he was last year. But if Wood is so good, why isn't their solution to their third-base problems to be found within the organization? There is no reason they shouldn't bring him up for a look-see, just to judge if they can get adequate production, and if he's not Major League ready, I oppose dealing an established major league player for him.

Right now, if Atkins slumping is still worth Santana and/or Wood, I think O'Dowd (if he is planning this trade at all, which management has denied) should wait and see. It's only May and it's still likely that at least some of Atkins' unluckiness could correct itself. The spike in the K rate and the drop in the walk rate is alarming, but if a couple more of those liners had gotten past someone or made it over Andruw's head, for example, his average would be higher than it is. Of course, the what-if game can be played to death, and what only matters is the results on the field, but I think that, if perhaps not the MVP-caliber player he was last year, Atkins is still better than what he's shown thus far.

The team should not have marketed itself as a contender, but they always say that each current group of players is a core. Well, we're still looking for that right touch. If it won't be Helton/Atkins/Holliday, will it be Koshanksy/Stewart/Barker? When will the search actually end, or are we just a revolving door to develop good players that we then trade off? I'm not asking a rhetorical question here; I do wonder what the heck can be done to fix this organization. The losing is frustrating and it's all we've really ever known, and I for one want to see it end -- but will a constant revolving door lead us to this end? Are we like the Brewers, hoping that years of high draft picks will finally lead us to our glory days?

As for the Pujols/Atkins comparison, perhaps it's a bit overreaching, but I did want to point out that there are others who haven't performed at their accustomed level this year. What that might be for Atkins, we still don't know, and I just hope that we don't make a deal for a young third baseman that doesn't pan out and Stoneman ends up getting the last laugh. For no other reason than I hate the Angels, and that would be deeply aggravating. If we acquire Wood for Atkins, so be it; I'll be upset. If we win, it will make it better. If it doesn't work out, and we just keep losing, I'll be even more upset. Why is Wood one of the missing pieces? Who knows.

I still have one more logistical question. If we intend on getting Wood, how does that affect Stewart? I doubt we're planning to platoon two highly regarded prospects. At this point, it would make more sense for the deal (should it go down) to be Santana for Atkins, and I don't endorse continuing to take a risk on a pitcher that "could" be good, and yet, this year, still hasn't achieved his potential. I don't care what scouts see if he isn't bringing it to the field and consistently producing. It was rumored earlier in the year the Angels were mulling a demotion for him, and while God knows we need pitching help, I don't like the idea of trading our established third baseman for their mercurial is-he-or-isn't-he possible greatness, possible burnout. The Angels have some quality arms -- if they want Atkins, they should give us one with proven talent in return.

Also, third base isn't a position in which we have need, seeing how highly Stewart is regarded. So why would we need to trade away a third baseman for another third baseman that might cause playing time conflicts with him? As I mentioned, the most logical trade would be Atkins for a pitcher, and while I would always appreciate help in this sector, for some reason, I don't necessarily see it coming from Santana. I'd be more willing to listen if it was another name being tossed around -- I wish that O'Dowd would insist on a proven pitcher instead of taking a flyer on one that may or may not achieve his potential. The Angels are known for their pitching, so let's not just take the first name they throw at us. Santana has been a problem for them in the past and Atkins hasn't been one for us until now, so let's at least try to get somebody who has a better-than-average chance of working out. Joe Saunders or Dustin Moseley, maybe, if Stoneman absolutely can't be enticed to give up one of his established starters.

And besides, I don't want Garrett to go. He's one of my favorite players. There, I said it. You can talk statistics and splits until your face turns blue, but there's a human element to the game too, and I for one would be very, very upset if Atkins was traded, partially because as much as I want my team to win, I really do care about the guys wearing the uniform as well. I can't step back objectively and support every move supposed to help the wins, also because O'Dowd hasn't shown himself to be that great at judging transactions in the past (evidenced by all these losing seasons that are getting Rockies fans so hot under the collar). Hopefully it doesn't happen.

Monday, May 14, 2007

Bleeding (Cardinal) Red

Quite literally, in this case. I think it's time to admit that the Cardinals dynasty that we fans so enjoyed for the past few years has bit the dust. Yes, it's only May, but the Cards are nine games back in a division currently headed by the team with the unlikeliest best record in the NL -- those perennial powerhouse Milwaukee Brewers, clocking in at 25-12 and only one loss behind the Red Sox for the best mark in baseball. I must admit that I didn't pay much attention to all the Brewer hype this winter, since they've been a doormat for so long, but I suppose that every doormat has its day and it looks as if the Brew Crew is cashing in right now. Who's to say if it'll be extrapolated over a season, but this Central division is absolutely not winnable by the Cards with the current product they're putting on the field right now.

The players themselves know it. Reminded that the 1oo-plus win teams of the early oughts made relentlessness their trademark, center fielder Jim Edmonds answered, "This is a different team." (From the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). If you read the article, he sounds more than a little peeved with the team's lifeless play and it sounds as if the post-game press conferences are becoming a balancing act for each night's starting pitcher: he cites his own responsibility to keep the team in the game while trying to avoid pointing fingers at an offense that has scored an average of 2.4 runs since Josh Hancock's April 29 death. Clubhouse chemistry may be a myth (I personally don't think so) but this absolutely brutal onslaught to start the season can't be doing good things for the Cardinals' camaraderie, and since major league players spend more time with their teammates than with their families, this is an important factor that may eventually seep onto the field, if it hasn't already. This is a team desperately scrabbling for answers and can't find any. If a salary dump becomes necessary, Jason Isringhausen and David Eckstein will most likely be the probable candidates to be traded, as they're taking up their fair share of the team's revenue and are difficult, but not impossible, to move for the right price. (The most money is tied up in Pujols, Carpenter, Rolen, and Edmonds. The former two are franchise cornerstones and clearly aren't going anywhere, while Rolen has a full no-trade clause and come July, will have 10-5 status anyway (ten years of major league service, and the past five with the same team, give a player the right to waive any proposed trade). Edmonds signed a two-year contract extension this last offseason, and has expressed a desire to retire in St. Louis, but his skills are on a vast downturn and it's doubtful the Cardinals could get much of value for him -- maybe a few B-level prospects if Walt Jocketty can find anyone willing to take on an aging and offensively decrepit center fielder.

Isringhausen is rebounding after injury and has proved quite serviceable while regaining his closer's role, posting a sparkling 1.88 ERA, a 1-0 won/loss and 9 saves, but since the team can never hand him a lead in the ninth inning, he's only seen 14.1 innings pitched. If he continues to do well, he could bring back a nice return. He will be 35 in September and still prone to the occasional meltdown, so the Cardinals could try dangling him on the open market and see what kind of interest they could attract. Closers are always a hot commodity and hopefully Jocketty can cozen a decent payback for Izzy. He also has mentioned loving St. Louis, but the boo birds were rough on him during his injury-marred catastrophes last year and his affection may have waned a bit. Izzy is very close to his young proteges in the pen, so it's also possible that his departure may affect them, but with close to $8 million tied up in one reliever, he becomes a possible target for a midseason fire sale. Young Tyler Johnson has looked untouchable thus far, allowing only one earned run in 13 innings for a 0.69 ERA and a .152 BAA. Interestingly, he's primarily used to get lefties out, but they're hitting "higher" against him -- .160 vs. .143 for righties -- so it seems he's mastered his wicked slider, which, when it's working, is unhittable. Johnson has never closed before, but if Izzy does go, he could find himself promoted to the spot previously held by Isringhausen/Wainwright.

Eckstein is the other candidate that should go, but it remains to be seen if he will. The Cards don't have an heir apparent at the shortstop position and it's doubtful they'd pull off a splashy deal to fill the vacancy. Jocketty doesn't dish out big money until his players have proven themselves (i.e. Pujols and Carpenter) and while some Cards fans, myself definitely not included, have expressed interest in landing Alex Rodriguez to man the hole in Busch, it's not likely that that will happen. Eckstein is a fan favorite and won the World Series MVP last year for his so-called "scrappy" play, but the reason he gets so much attention is because he's short -- 5'7" and 165 lb, if by some miracle you hadn't heard. If he put up his pedestrian numbers at 6'1" and 180, you'd never hear much about him. He's a "gritty" little guy, which is why he is the subject of so many "inspiring" articles, but a .207 average, 0 HR, 4 RBI, and 11 runs scored isn't acceptable production by my yardstick and no amount of runtlike albino grit will save Eckstein if he doesn't get it going. It may seem unfair to pick and choose players when the Cardinals have almost universally succumbed to a team-wide offensive malaise, but Eckstein's hype doesn't match his contributions by a long shot and he's due to be paid $4.5 million this year for it. (His double-play partner, Adam Kennedy, hasn't been terrific either, but the Cards obviously aren't going to cut out the center of their infield, no matter how anemic they are).

Of course, the issue of finding a successor remains problematic. Brendan Ryan is batting .238 in AAA Memphis with no HR and 6 RBI, while Rico Washington has slightly better numbers at .306/4/8 but has never (to the best of my recollection) been taken out for a test drive in the Majors, so you'd have no way of judging what you'd get from him if he was given everyday playing time. Tagg Bozied was an early-season darling of Cards Nation, and he's continued to do well at Memphis, posting .298/7/30, but he fell off a cliff at the end of spring training and plays first base, not shortstop. Travis Hanson is another mentioned prospect, but he plays third -- a position the Cards have under control -- and it's a bit late to ask him to switch positions this high in the minor leagues. Besides, he's batting .197. If the Cards did trade Eckstein, they'd have to find his replacement from somewhere outside the organization, and the only shortstops that would be available wouldn't provide a significantly higher level of production.

It's also possible that they could ditch Juan Encarnacion, who sat out the first month and a half of the season with a wrist injury and hasn't exactly been an offensive sparkplug upon his return -- not that he really ever was, but the state of things in the Birdhouse are so bad that Encarnacion, yes, Encarnacion, was looked to as a savior. The consensus among fans seems to be that the organization should cut him and promote Rick Ankiel, the pitcher-turned-outfielder who's humming along at Memphis to the tune of .281/9/31. At this point, it may honestly be time to see what the replacements can do, as the major leaguers have been entirely underwhelming and it's my personal belief that loyalty to scrappy underdogs who netted them a trophy prevented the front office from seriously revamping a team that did, after all, only win 83 games last year and had three losing streaks of seven games or more. I don't expect to see Carpenter back this year -- they say three months, but why bring him back in August/September to pitch meaningless games when the team is already out of the race? Their best bet is to let him rehab in peace and bring him back in '08 when the team might have a realistic shot.

The Cards should also ship out the miscellaneous spare parts, such as So Taguchi, Aaron Miles, Preston Wilson, etc., that can't play and don't contribute, and just rebuild. Clearly, this isn't going to be a repeat year for them, so it's time to cut their losses and start grooming successors for what is (hopefully) a better season. Isn't that the endless refrain among baseball fans? "Wait for next year." In the Cardinals' case, it may be all they can do.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Evidence of My Non-Deadness

Evidently, I am not the world's most fastidious blogger when the baseball season is not in session and therefore I see no need to bore my extremely limited audience with the mundane details of my life. But in case anybody... at all... was wondering, as a matter of fact, I am still alive and kicking. But I have been swamped with end-of-term work, including a 27-page philosophy paper, a 30-page history paper, a 140-page writing project, and compilation worksheets for two of those classes, all of which we do in lieu of ordinary final exams at SLC. I prefer it this way, being a wordophile, but it does leave quite a bit less time for doing things like sleeping, free time, and staring blankly into space. If anyone is interested, I'll post the final .pdfs of the projects later.

Let's see... I went to the Cloisters branch of the Metropolitan Museum of Art with my history class today, which was very interesting, and most importantly: I go home in a week. I have found myself absolutely salivating, counting the hours, totally ready to go home and do nothing, although my passion for this does not equal my passion to get out in the first place. At this time next week (4:30 MT, 6:30 ET) I'll be on board a Boeing about an hour outside of Denver, and I am so ready to just let my frazzled brain unwind without constantly mentally charting my assignments, due dates, and needed edits...

My family is waiting to put up the tree until I get home, which is nice, but if they really wanted to, I don't care if they do it without me. I'm done with my Christmas shopping, mostly, and I think that I got some fairly nice gifts. What I seem to be spending the most money on is iTunes... suffice it to say that my music library has greatly expanded since I first arrived. But since I haven't been home since August, I am ready to go. One more week. Meergh... I won't survive. And then I'll have to get someone to post "Evidence of my Deadness."

On the baseball front, the Cardinals (thank God!) shot down any rumors of their interest in Bighead Bonds, who then re-signed with the Giants, to nobody's surprise. That's one worrisome rumor out of the way - I've heard scary (but probably unsubstantiated) rumors of my favorites, like Brad Hawpe and Danny Haren, possibly changing teams. This would most likely not kill me, but it would make me very upset.

The Cardinals need some rotational upgrades - they signed Carp to a five-year extension that will keep him sporting the Birds on the Bat through 2011 at an extra $50 million (or thereabouts; they already had some money invested in him for next season) which is a bargain for a pitcher of Carp's caliber. However, the rest of the starters are not similarly arranged. After Carp comes Anthony Reyes, talented but unpredictable, followed by Kip Wells, a suspect Pirates reclamation project, followed by.... ? There are two gaping holes in the rotation, and the Cards missed out on Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers.

Two theories have been put about - one is that the Cards try to fill the spaces with people within the organization - which would likely portend a move to the rotation for postseason hero and my dearly beloved Adam Wainwright. (Dear God, do not let LaRussa have been serious when he mentioned Braden Looper, the definition of mediocrity edging into frightening badness, making a move to the starting five. The man has one pitch, possibly two, hasn't started since making 10 appearances in A ball in 1997, and has an unfortunate tendency to turn into a pinata if he lets runners on, which he does frequently.).

The other is that the Cards try to sign Miguel Batista, who isn't that great, but he's about the only option left on the market that is not named Barry Zito. None of these scenarios have me that enthused. Then again, the Cards' rotation won the World Series last year with Carpenter, Suppan, a lot of smoke and mirrors, and occasional guest appearances by Jeff Weaver in the postseason, so what do I know? Still, the fact remains that my darling Redbirds won exactly 83 games in the regular season last year, an underwhelming total, and, let's face it, put together a magical run at exactly the right moment to carry them to the trophy. Now just imagine if they'd played like that all season... but their two previous years, 'o4 and '05, in which they hit the centennial-win mark both times, didn't deliver the hardware. I'll take the trophy any day, and I'm wearing my World Champs shirt right now. I wear it a lot. I discovered the other day that the majority of my shirts happen to be Cardinal-themed.

As for the other piece of news, my first and long-term favorite, Andy Pettitte, went back to the Yankees after playing out a three-year contract with the Astros. I'll admit it, I used to be a Yankees fan, but I have a good reason - I lived for four years in Columbus, Ohio, when I was young and watched their minor league team, the Columbus Clippers, including current catcher Jorge Posada. And I also discovered that the Clippers are no longer the AAA affiliate for the Yanks - they're for the Nationals. I feel betrayed.

But anyway, I have loved Andy for as long as I've known about baseball, no joke. If I was seven when I first discovered baseball - that would be 1995, we missed seeing Andy and Derek Jeter in the minors by one year - then I discovered him as soon as I looked into the MLB club that the Clippers, my first baseball loves, were affiliated with. (I can still sing your their rally jingle. Heavily paraphrased, it ran something like, "Guess which team is number one? They're the Columbus Clippers and they'll keep on playing till they've won -we’ll stand up and we’ll tell, Columbus Clippers, ring your bell.”) At which point everybody would clang the Clipper-themed cowbells which they gave away. This happened a lot. I have a lot of fond memories of my minor league baseball days. Ask me sometimes.

But, well, yeah. Andy. Since I have loved the man for 11 years, cried like a baby when he left the Yankees for the Astros, have a picture and a street sign (“46 Andy Pettitte Avenue") above my bed, and an Andy bobblehead… let’s just say I can’t root against him. For Christ's sake, when I was still playing Barbies with my sister, Andy was one of the recurring characters in our invented town. It would be amazing to get tickets for his first start back at the Stadium – the Bronx faithful still love him, and then I could happily boo A-Rod for the rest of the game.

As a final note, does anybody think the amount of money being thrown at mediocrity is out of control? Gil Freakin' Meche, who has a career record of 55-44, got $55 million over five years from the Kansas City Freakin' Royals. Match made in heaven, and you can definitely tell that that was a deal made all about the money, as the Royals have less chance of competing for a pennant than I do of turning their signature blue color. Ted Lilly got $40 million over 4 years from the Cubs, and of course, the new albatross contract was also doled out by the North Siders - $136 m. over 8 years for Alfonso Soriano. Just because the market is thin doesn't mean that GMs need to go absolutely berserk over the uninspiring talent. Must be nice to be rich (said the college student bitterly).

I think I need to a) take out the trash, b) use the bathroom, and c) edit my writing project now, so it’s time to wrap this up. Naturally, it ended up being longer than I expected, but at least no, I am not dead. Check back at the end of this week, as it may be a different story then.

(After fourth or fifth attempt to publish this: Blogger, what the fuck characters aren't allowed?)