Love, Hate, Tolerate: The Lucky and the Luckless

Something which I have been meaning to do for a while, if only for the sheer hell of it. I thought I would rank each team in Major League Baseball according to my personal preferences, as if this means a flying crap. But hey, we all have our vanity, and I'm bored on Saturday night after watching a Rockies win, which equals this staggering work of heartbreaking genius. The Rockies go for the sweep over the Astros, and a 6-3 record on a 9-game, 10-day road trip (well, actually, more like a 10.5 game road trip once you add in all the extra innings vs. the Padres) with Ubaldo Jimenez matching up with old friend Shawn Chacon. And by friend, I really mean, used to kick things and yell while he was haplessly attempting to ''close" games. He went 1-9 as a closer one year, and Hurdle kept trotting him out there. Oy.

Anyway.

The Fortunate Five

1. Colorado Rockies. Anyone who reads this blog needs no explaining as to why my purple-and-black boys top this list. I love them. Too much, I think.
2. Oakland A's. Used to be really into them, am not really so much anymore, but still enjoy watching their games and have a hat autographed by quite a few members of the team (at least circa 2006).
3. St. Louis Cardinals. Was thrilled when they won the 2006 World Series, have also cooled on them a little recently, but they still have Adam Wainwright. I love Adam Wainwright.
4. Milwaukee Brewers. They merit a spot this high on the list for all their help last September, which they squelched the Padres for the last two regular-season games in order to force The Tiebreaker. Tony Gwynn Jr. mentions that the Rockies themselves have thanked him for corking that triple off Hoffman, and I dunno, I've never found anything inherently loathable about the Brew Crew. I mean, it was a total sham that Braun got the ROY, but that was the writers' fault, not his. Also, Milwaukee and Colorado seem to be on good terms, and I like that.
5. New York Mets. I know, I know. It's embarrassing to have to even admit it. I am not a Mets fan, and when going to games at Shea, frequently root for them to screw up if only because the reaction from the actual Mets fans around me is always amusing. (Booing being a recreational sport in New York). But aside from Coors, I've been to the most games at Shea, and out of the two teams in my adopted hometown, they're the one I don't hate, detest, loathe, and wish to vanish into thin air. Not that I'm talking about anyone in particular, of course. But I have a pair of good friends who are Mets fans, we go to games together, and always have a great time. It was freezing the last two times we went (earlier this week) and I steadfastly stuck it out, for a team that I can take or leave (mainly because I just love baseball). So, oddly enough, one of the East Coast darlings actually does earn a relatively high spot on this list. Whether it's for them or not, I don't know, but there you go.

The Tolerable Ten

6. Cleveland Indians. Play hard and always seem to be good, which would be annoying if I was a fan of a team in the AL Central aside from them. Also, my parents swear up and down I used to go to Indians games with my sisters and a family friend (we used to live in Ohio) but I don't remember at all. Also, I have strong feelings about The Jake having its name changed to "Progressive Field" -- what a crock. I still wish we'd played the Indians in the Series last year, mainly because we'd probably have won.
7. Seattle Mariners. Lookout Landing, a top Mariners blog, is absolutely hysterical. I'm serious, it is absolute comic genius, I read it just to laugh, and the Mariners commercials (a tradition) are always funny as well. (You can check them out online). All that adds up to a high spot for the Caffeineheads.
8. Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Even though their insistence on being called the "Rays" now is mildly nettling (I therefore always call them by their proper name, heh) they remind me somewhat of the Rockies, Evan Longoria is good friends with Tulo, and any team that has a chip on its shoulder for the Yankees (aside from the Red Sox....) is good by me.
9. Florida Marlins. Poor Marlins. You can't really hate them. A-Rod makes more than their entire team, and any time anyone good shows up, Loria hauls them off and buys more children under 21 to staff the Baby Fish. Also, I rooted for them in the 1997 Series as a spratling of nine tender years, and it was a lot of fun. (Wow, that was a long time ago).
10. Minnesota Twins. They have a god-awful stadium (although that may soon be remedied, their new park may be built without a roof.... which equals April baseball in Minneapolis outdoors, which equals oof). Still, their players are likable, Justin Morneau should be commended for nabbing the AL MVP in 2006 ahead of That Man In Pinstripes, and if they ever get Francisco Liriano healthy, they could have Santana all over again.
11. Pittsburgh Pirates. I know almost nothing about the Pirates except that Ian Snell once thought the Rockies were stealing signs and therefore threatened to start beaning them. It didn't happen, and it makes me think that it was just Snell being Snell -- i.e. totally crazy. Also, the Pirates beat the Rockies 3 of 4 in August last year. That hurt. But they are the Pirates. Success is short-lived, therefore why bother hating them?
12. Cincinnati Reds. They have the pieces in place to be very good in a few years, but then went and sent that all to pot by hiring Dusty Baker. Cueto, Votto, Bailey, Bruce, etc. should have Cincinnati fans thinking that their days of doormatting it in the Central may be coming to an end. Downside: Say goodbye to the right arms of Arroyo and Harang.
13. Toronto Blue Jays. They swept the Rockies to start that horrible roadtrip that didn't happen (you know, the 1-9 one... OOF... back to repressing). But Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are a strong starter duo, and hey, I always kind of pull for anyone in the East squashed beneath the 800-lb gorillas. You know, Thing 1 and Thing 2.
14. Washington Nationals. They try so hard. And then they fail. But it's kind of cute/pathetic to watch them giving it another brave stab anyway.
15. Texas Rangers. They earn this spot mainly on the strength of C.J. Wilson, their eccentric blue-gloved lefty reliever. In case I have not told you this recently, he is amazing.

The Dubious Decade

16. Houston Astros. Seriously, who likes the Astros? They have terrible management, they had Roger Clemens a few years, they went to the Series in 2005 and then boffed it all up. Don't hate them, but seriously, the Astros? Whatever.
17. Atlanta Braves. Nobody likes Chipper Jones, including Chipper Jones, but don't tell him that. We can save his existential crisis for when it would be more useful.
18. Detroit Tigers. I have to say, watching the Tigers fall flat on their faces out of the gate, after everyone had pre-emptively anointed them the AL Champs following their acquisition of Willis and Cabrera, was pretty damn satisfying.
19. Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are so bad. And no matter how well they've started off this year, I am sure they'll realize that and go back to their usual climes of TEH FAIL.
20. Chicago White Sox. Have THE most annoying broadcasters in all of baseball, and it was more fun when they were cursed too. Although they do suck again, so cool.
21. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Stupid name. You are not the Dodgers. And you play in Disneyland. Bugger off and get some Mickey Mouse ears.
22. Los Angeles Dodgers. I don't precisely hate them, but there are certainly no fond feelings for them either. Their fans always leave early to "beat the traffic," they spend more than everyone in the West and don't have a whole lot to show for it, and Nomar? Seriously? Whatever. The Helton homer off Saito last September 18th was a defining moment of my life. Sheerly amazing. And then we swept them in four, right in the middle of the streak. Good times.
23. Arizona Diamondbacks. Purple Row and AZ Snakepit's posters have a good relationship with each other, and enjoy bantering and discussing their teams. I am good friends with several Arizona fans from there, and the Dbacks are much like the Rockies -- a team of young, talented, genuinely nice guys. That said, they are our biggest division rival and are getting annoyingly good -- sheez, Slytherin, lose a few. Plus they have Eric Byrnes and danced on our field like it was a big deal when they won the West. We got you back in the NLCS, suckers. (Although it is true I am trying to expunge details of our early-season meetings thus far from my scarred psyche).
24. Kansas City Royals. They played us last June for one of the most aggravating series imaginable, which Rockies Nation as a whole pretends does not exist, and always seem to play like the Worldbeaters instead of the Turfeaters against us. AND we have to play them again this year. Oh brother.
25. San Francisco Giants. They only earn this spot because I couldn't decide if I hated them or the Phillies more, and decided it was the Phillies. Nonetheless, the Giants richly deserve all the fail that comes to them.

The Terrible Tier

26. Philadelphia Phillies. Overhyped, overrated, and Jimmy Rollins. Swept in the NLDS by us, after all the pundits sagely figured this team (East Coast, remember, therefore better!) would sweep US. Revenge is sweet. Go cry in your beer, you bunch of hooligans who constitute "fans" in the "City of Brotherly Love."
27. San Diego Padres. Yep, the hate is pretty epic here. You know what? It doesn't matter if Holliday touched the plate, we still beat you. And then we beat you again in 22 innings. And we went to the playoffs because you blew chunks. Take THAT.
28. New York Yankees. It's actually pretty hard to decide who goes where for the last three spots on this list, since I hate the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cubs equally -- which is to say, with the force of an exploding star? Let's just say I find nothing at all lovable, likable, tolerable, or even mildly dislikable about this band of overexposed prima-donnas. In fact, you might say I hate them. That doesn't even sound strong enough, but you know what I mean.
29. Chicago Cubs. I asked a friend if the Cubs or Red Sox should go in the last slot on this list. His response: "The Red Sox. At least the Cubs have the decency not to win the World Series." Which I think is true, and the only thing keeping the Small Bears out of the cellar (hey, they'll get there on their own, given enough time. Cubsuck is a law of the universe -- it will be a constant). I hate their fans (especially their fans) the fact they're now a big-market and still-shitty team, and the fact that it's still "trendy" to root for them when they're nothing but a bunch of giant losers. Also, their fans. Did I mention their fans? Here's to another century of Cubs futility.
30. Boston Red Sox. I have hated the Red Sox for all of my career as a baseball fan, whether for one reason or another, and it was made about a hundred times worse by last October. The Red Sox are just evil, there is no other way to put it. There is nothing redeeming about this team. They are the incarnation of the Devil. Should I tell you how I really feel? Die, Red Sox, die.

Further Evidence I Suck at Predictions

but in my defense, nobody really saw this magical year coming for Colorado. In fact, as late as September 16, it looked like the same old story and they'd be lucky to finish a few games above .500 (in my preseason predictions, I gave them an 81-81 split and that was about all I was hoping for before the late-season surge kicked into gear). Now it's time to review my individual player predictions, some of which I was close on and some of which I completely missed the boat on (Tulo and Jeff Baker coming to mind). Also note that I only compare predictions with those players who started and finished the year on the team, to spare us the pain of reliving the John Mabry/Steve Finley/Tom Martin experiments.

COLORADO ROCKIES: REVIEW

Jeff Francis, LHP
Projected: 15-10, 4.05 ERA, 201 IP, 135 K, 32 starts
Actual: 17-9, 4.22 ERA, 215.1 IP, 165 K, 34 starts
Result: My Nostradamus skills weren't too bad here. Jeff eked out two extra wins and got bailed out by the offense on the occasion of a few poor starts to keep the loss total south of double-digits, and discovered a strikeout knack to bump him about 30 K's north of the figure I estimated, but in general, this is a close prediction. Kudos to me. Hit.

Aaron Cook, RHP
Projected: 15-12, 4.12 ERA, 215 IP, 95 K, 32 starts
Actual: 8-7, 4.12 ERA, 166 IP, 61 K, 25 starts
Result: Cookie was sidelined by injury again, cutting back on his numbers quite a bit further than I estimated. He definitely didn't come close to the record total I envisioned (but I did hit the ERA nail on the head, go me). He also came 40 innings shy of 200, so I definitely got it wrong on the IP total and gave him too many K's. Miss.

Rodrigo Lopez, RHP
Projected: 8-14, 5.31 ERA, 170 IP, 101 K, 24 starts
Actual: 5-4, 4.42 ERA, 79.1 IP, 43 K, 14 starts
Result: Er, clearly, I miscalculated on this one. Lopez wasn't the 9-18 horror I'd been steeling myself for from the 2006 Orioles, and in the early going he even looked good, but then he made the ill-advised choice of trying to pitch through elbow problems and got blown up. Shut down in August and became a free-agent, may not pitch until August of next year. Miss.

Josh Fogg, RHP
Projected: 10-15, 5.24 ERA, 165 IP, 85 K, 30 starts
Actual: 10-9, 4.94 ERA, 165.2 IP, 94 K, 29 starts
Result: Fogg discovered a way to be good, or at least not bad, in select spots this year, earning the moniker "Dragon Slayer" for his tendency to beat other teams' aces. Still, a world-beater he isn't. I gave him too many losses and an ERA slightly higher than what he ended up with, but nailed win total and IP and came within 9 on the Ks and 1 on the starts. Hit.

Jason Hirsh, RHP
Projected: 7-4, 4.05 ERA, 93 IP, 56 K, 10 starts
Actual: 5-7, 4.81 ERA, 112.1 IP, 75 K, 19 starts
Result: I didn't foresee Hirsh earning a starting spot when I made my predictions (of course, a few weeks later, he got the #4 job). He had moments of brilliance, especially early in the season against the Padres and a six-inning shutout of the Mets in July, but at other times got completely bombed (especially by the Cards) and missed most of the second half of the season due to an assortment of freak injuries. Still projected to be a key contributor next year. Miss.

Taylor Buchholz, RHP
Projected: 3-4, 4.65 ERA, 75 IP, 32 K, 4 starts
Actual: 6-5, 4.23 ERA, 93.2 IP, 61 K, 8 starts
Result: Another one of the pitchers the Rox acquired in the Jennings deal, Bucky was supposed to be a starter, but didn't impress in that role and found a solid and reliable role as the pen's long man. I missed on the win/loss total (although got it right that there was one more than the other) came within the ballpark on the ERA, but muffed IP/K/starts. Miss.

Brian Fuentes, RHP
Projected: 4-2, 3.15 ERA, 31 SV/37 SVO
Actual: 3-5, 3.08 ERA, 20 SV/27 SVO
Result: Oh, Fuentes, I may never forgive you. You've etched yourself into the same unfortunate category as Jose Jimenez, Shawn Chacon, and Jose Mesa, first with your choke job in June and then almost single-handedly destroying the Rockies' prospects for a comeback in Games 3 and 4 of the World Series. Off on the win/loss, quite close on ERA, and predicted six blown saves; he blew seven, and each of them were agony. Hit.

Jeremy Affeldt, LHP
Projected: 1-1, 6.04 ERA, 1 SV/3 SVO
Actual: 4-3, 3.51 ERA, 0 SV/4 SVO
Result: So I underestimated Affeldt; for most of the season he was a decent seventh/eighth inning guy out of the pen before hitting a major wall in September. Still, he wasn't as shitaceous as I was grimly expecting him to be (come on, he's an ex-Royal like Mark "All Star" Redman). Miss.

Manny Corpas, RHP
Projected: 3-2, 3.34 ERA, 2 SV/3 SVO
Actual: 4-2, 2.08 ERA, 19 SV/22 SVO
Result: Clearly, I did not foresee Corpas becoming Studly McStudlerson at closer after Fuentes turned into Choky McChokerson, but so it happened. Manny became a legit flamethrower and a true ninth-inning guy with the mental toughness needed to make everyone feel really confident when he got the ball to close it out. I'll happily take a Miss on this one.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP
Projected: 1-1, 4.77 ERA, 2 SV/ 5 SVO
Actual: 2-5, 3.42 ERA, 0 SV/5 SVO
Result: He's LaTroy Hawkins, what can you say? He comes to pieces if you attempt to use him as a closer or in any inning later than the eighth, but as a seventh-inning guy, he's generally useful. We can bring him back, maybe, if he takes a pay cut and is used in his proper role. Miss.

Note that I don't have any numbers to toss around for late-season studs Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Ryan Speier, etc. They opened the season in Triple-A and weren't marked for promotion, and when Speier was first up, he sucked, so he was quickly sent back. Elmer Dessens, Mark Redman, Ramon Ortiz, et all, aside from being names that I hope I never have to hear in conjunction with the words Colorado Rockies again, were late-season additions. Tom Martin was FINALLY given his walking papers after being as bad as everyone, including me, predicted ( 2-3, 5.64 ERA were my choices, 0-0, 4.91 was the actual). But Jimenez and Morales figure to play a big role next year, and Speier will be back if they don't retain Affeldt/Hawkins et all, and may be back on his own merits as well. 2008 will definitely be an interesting season... as long as Dan O'Dowd does not shoot himself in the foot first by re-signing Shawn Chacon and/or signing Brett Tomko (seriously, I heard he was thinking about that). In what universe and under the influence of what drug is that improvement, Dealin' Dan?

Okay. Now for the hitters.

Todd Helton, 1B
Projected: .318 AVG, 21 HR, 90 RBI, .430 OBP, .490 SLG, .920 OPS
Actual: .321 AVG, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .434 OBP, .494 SLG, .928 OPS
Result: Man, did I nail this one. I called the resurge in average, maintained the crazy OBP, gave ol' Todd a few too many homers, but other than that, I came within a few decimals on everything. Hit.

Jamey Carroll, 2B
Projected: .301 AVG, 2 HR, 27 RBI, .363 OBP, .390 SLG, .753 OPS
Actual: .225 AVG, 2 HR, 22 RBI, .317 OBP, .300 SLG, .617 OPS
Result: Okay, so in case I was thinking I was getting good at this from the success of Todd, here's Carroll to bring me back to earth. He hit at a miserly rate, had a terrible OBP/SLG, but oddly enough, I did get the power numbers right. Fell back to earth after a flukey 2006. Do not let him be the starting 2B next year with the likely departure of Kaz (to the Chicago Muthafriggin Cubs, who I hate with a passion unmatched... except for the Yankees). Miss.

Kaz Matsui, 2B
Projected: .262 AVG, 3 HR, 30 RBI, .327 OBP, .436 SLG, .763 OPS
Actual: .288 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, .342 OBP, .405 SLG, .778 OPS
Result: I'll say I came closer to a hit than a miss on this. I underestimated the strong season Kaz would put together on the rebound in terms of batting average, but HR total, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OPS were all fairly close to what I called, his higher OBP and lower SLG equaling out to quite close on the OPS. Hit.

Clint Barmes, "SS"
Projected: .237 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .270 OBP, .330 SLG, .600 OPS
Actual: .216 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .237 OBP, .297 SLG, .534 OPS
Result: Dear God, Clint Barmes. He makes me shudder. When I gave him these generous totals, I was assuming he might, due to Hurdle's maddening love for him, take away playing time from Tulo. Instead, he was even more nauseating than my underwhelming numbers, which says a lot about that Miss. Do not, in the name of all that is holy, make the Rockies brass think that he will be an even barely acceptable fill-in for Kaz next year.

Troy Tulowitzki, Zeus
Projected: .282 AVG, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .330 OBP, .340 SLG, .670 OPS
Actual: .291 AVG, 24 HR, 99 RBI, .359 OBP, .479 SLG, .838 OPS
Result: Erm... hem... HOO BOY. I was wow-really-sorry-Tulo-let-me-bear-your-children-in-apology off on this one... I have learned my lesson. Purple Baby Jesus is the truth. And no Team Jesus jokes. Thank you. Clint Barmes-esque Miss.

Garrett Atkins, 3B
Projected: .331 AVG, 33 HR, 130 RBI, .400 OBP, .567 SLG, .967 OPS
Actual: .301 AVG, 25 HR, 111 RBI, .367 SLG, .486 SLG, .853 OPS
Result: I overvalued Atkins, but he would have come quite a bit closer to my totals if he hadn't spent the first two months of the season in a horrid slump -- he got untracked after that and hit something like .340+ after the All-Star Break. Although not the MVP-caliber I thought, still a solid season. Miss, but only due to May.

Brad Hawpe, RF
Projected: .301 AVG, 27 HR, 95 RBI, .399 OBP, .530 SLG, .929 OPS
Actual: .291 AVG, 29 HR, 116 RBI, .387 OBP, .539 SLG, .926 OPS
Result: I actually came fairly close on dear ol' Brad. I clearly should have called that average for Atkins, and Hawpe didn't ever make it north of .300, but I was within 2 on the homers and extremely close on OBP/SLG/OPS, only undervaluing him on RBI. Hit.

Jeff Baker, RF
Projected: .312 AVG, 14 HR, 46 RBI, .385 OBP, .477 SLG, .862 OPS
Actual: .222 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .296 OBP, .347 SLG, .643 OPS
Result: Holy flying Batman underpants. I guess the fact that Baker hit .368 after his 2006 call-up blinded me to the fact that he is not, in fact, Dante Bichette reincarnated. Seeing as I was expecting him to play much more than he did, and to be a whole lot better than he is, it makes sense as to why I Missed fairly badly here.

Ryan Spilborghs, RF/CF
Projected: .270 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .330 OBP, .415 SLG, .745 OPS
Actual: .299 AVG, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .363 OBP, .485 SLG, .848 OPS
Result: Yet another case in which I'm perfectly happy to be wrong. Spilborghs arrived and provided an immediate spark, although he faded badly down the stretch when he had to play every day. Still, he's a very valued part to have-- good fourth outfielders are underrated, and I'll again be fine with taking a Miss here.

Cory Sullivan, CF
Projected: .272 AVG, 3 HR, 31 RBI, .317 OBP, .375 SLG, .692 OPS
Actual: .286 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .336 OBP, .386 SLG, .722 OPS
Result: Sullivan did slightly better than I gave him credit for in all categories, and provided singles-hitting skills off the bench if very minimal power. I really missed in RBI/OBP, but otherwise the projection is close enough that I'm going to call this a Hit, dammit.

Willy Taveras, CF
Projected: .260 AVG, 1 HR, 17 RBI, .314 OBP, .323 SLG, .637 OPS
Actual: .320 AVG, 2 HR, 24 RBI, .367 OBP, .382 SLG, .749 OPS
Result: I undervalued Willy T, but it didn't look like I had at first; he had an awful start to the season and couldn't get on base to save his life. Then came a 5-for-6 April 25 game against the Mets (which I happen to have attended) and he was off and running, literally, as his biggest impact came on the basepaths (33 stolen bases). Still, he needs to find a way to a) get on aside from beating out bunts, and b) stay healthy. His speed does us no good if he keeps getting something wrong with his legs. Miss.

Matt Holliday, LF
Projected: .339 AVG, 38 HR, 125 RBI, .390 OBP, .600 SLG, .990 OPS
Actual: .340 AVG, 36 HR, 137 RBI, .405 OBP, .607 SLG, 1.012 OPS
Result: Called it. Holliday's transformation from middling minor-league maybe-shoulda-played-quarterback prospect to legit MVP candidate (who won't get it, judging by the way the Rockies have been robbed blind this offseason) is complete. He was almost completely in line with what I called for him in February, and dear God, can Scott Boras just go away so we can re-sign him? (Yes, I also enjoy beating my head on brick walls). Hit.

Yorvit Torrealba, C
Projected: .250 AVG, 6 HR, 44 RBI, .299 OBP, .405 SLG, .704 OPS
Actual: .255 AVG, 8 HR, 47 RBI, .323 OBP, .376 SLG, .699 OPS
Result: Yeah, my prediction looks pretty similar to the actual production, and until the deal fell through at the eleventh hour, the Mets were actually prepared to pay 3 years/14.4 million for this. Also, he let 61 of 76 runners steal... good lord. Redeeming factor: Great with the pitchers, especially all the Latino youngsters. Still, time to move on. Hit.

Chris Iannetta, C
Projected: .270 AVG, 8 HR, 50 RBI, .375 OBP, .387 SLG, .762 OPS
Actual: .218 AVG, 4 HR, 27 RBI, .330 OBP, .350 SLG, .680 OPS
Result: Yeah, I missed it, but Iannetta was given only a minimum of playing time and seemed unready in the early going. However, he matured during the season and after a brief demotion in August, hit .348 the rest of the way down the stretch, proving that he is capable of learning at and playing at this level. Still only 24 and looked to as the Rockies' catcher of the future. Which means they'll sign some crappy veteran Kendall/Barrett/et al to take his place again. Poor Ian. Pretty face. Miss.

Overall: I came quite close on some, missed badly on others, and, like everyone else, didn't foresee the 21-of-22 surge or the fact that they actually won the NL Pennant before getting creamed by the Red Sox. Still, it was quite a thrilling and magical season that I'm extremely glad to have been a part of, and I eagerly await 2008. *

* Now if Chacon/Tomko/et all get signed, or Carroll/Barmes/Quintanilla is dubbed the starting second baseman, I reserve the right to change my opinion...

** Oh what the hell. If I wanted to jump off, I could have done so before now...

*** Although as everyone knows, being a Rockies fan is hard.

**** Shut up, Charlie/Dick Monfort.

Midseason Reviews, Part I

I meant to do this at the All-Star break, but naturally, I had only one day off and that was during the Home Run Derby. I came home around 9 PM and the last thing I had energy for was writing about baseball. By this time I'd usually had quite enough of reality and all the attendant irritants that go with it. I'm so disgustingly perky at Starbucks that no one knows I am in reality a cynical introvert who lives largely in her head and is prey to a flotilla of disturbing obsessions. (Some of my friends know some of them, I refuse to divulge the rest). So I decided that writing fiction about baseball was better than writing about real baseball, as I have detailed in preceding posts. Explanations over, here are my one-paragraph summations of the 30 MLB teams' season to date, and a look at how badly I suck at predicting things. They are outlined in standings order, AL East to NL West, and will probably be split by league.

I also have three days coming up this weekend, even if the great majority of the time will be occupied with sleeping. Hey, people, I had to get up at 4:45 this morning. Don't judge. Also, I'm having a royally, royally rotten day, am consumed in bitterness and misery, and will try to tone down the venom.

AL EAST

Boston: I predicted their usual second-fiddle finish to the Yankees in a top-heavy division, but instead they're burning up the league, leading everybody at a ridiculous 61-40 clip, just edging out the Tigers for the best record in baseball and enjoying a margin that's been as wide as 14 games, even if it's been whittled to 6.5 at the moment and making the Beantown fans sweat it out again. Second Half: Although their fans have been conditioned to expect collapse, it would be fairly surprising indeed if the Sox turned into the 1978 versions of themselves and let the Yankees come all the way back... but you never know.

New York: I bowed to the mojo, even if I hate them violently, and figured they'd be setting the tone atop the East again, but they've looked extremely mortal for large portions of the season. They briefly put together a hot streak, winning 11 of 12, then came to Colorado and got swept by Todd and the Toddlers (proudest moment of my life) , skidding aimlessly into the break and looking like a done deal. Of course, then they began winning games against weak opponents and trying to find their own Bucky Dent, attempting to build on a 54-46 record and chip away at the Sox lead. Second Half: I hate the Yankees (I may have mentioned this) but I can't deny that they bear an unnerving resemblance to a cockroach or an earthworm (in more ways than one). If anybody has learned anything, it's that you can't count George Steinbrenner's Traveling All-Stars out completely.

Toronto: I thought they'd at least be competitive, and predicted that they'd make at least a few fans in New York and Boston sweat, but instead, the Blue Jays haven't done that much (not that they ever had a realistic shot of cracking the Sox/Yanks stronghold, and at least I tabbed them to end up in third, the slot they're currently inhabiting). Despite the Rocky Mountain News' readers bewilderingly naming Toronto as the majors' best team, they have a strong offense (Wells, Glaus, Thomas, and an emergent Rios? Yikes) and yet can't mount enough of a push. They currently stand at 51-50, one game clear of the break-even mark -- and ergo, not bad, not good. Second Half: Barring an intercessory act of God, there's little chance Toronto clears their accustomed spot. They should pick out curtains and a wallpaper pattern for third place.

Baltimore: Peter Angelos, recently (and deservedly) named in Jon Heyman's SI.com article as one of the worst owners in baseball, still has his talons embedded in this floundering franchise, so until then, there's not a realistic chance that somebody will perform the overhaul needed to transform the Orioles from pretender to contender. MLB K leader Erik Bedard is a pleasant surprise, establishing himself as an ace on anybody's staff, and youngster Jeremy Guthrie has also stepped it up. Sam Perlozzo, to nobody's surprise, was fired and was replaced with interim manager Davey Trembley, who has skippered the O's to nine wins in 13 games coming out of the break. Still, they're 47-53, and they have more of a chance to win the East than I do of marrying Jason Hirsh. (And don't ask me about that, I'm still upset). Second Half: Not much of interest. Have hot streaks, have cold streaks. Finish in fourth again.

Tampa Bay: Unpopular opinion time: The Devil Rays are given far, far too much credit. Everyone talks about how they're a tough young team, how Maddon will pick up Piniella's slack and lead them from doormat to sudden contender, but let's face facts: Rocco Baldelli stays healthy for five minutes at a time. James Shields has turned back into a pumpkin. Scott Kazmir and Carl Crawford can't do it alone. And as long as the Tropicana Juice Box attracts 5000 fans a night (8000 on promo days) the Devil Rays are going to continue to play exactly the way their 38-63 record suggests. Second Half: More of the same.

AL CENTRAL

Detroit: I expressed skepticism that they'd be able to follow up their Cinderella run with another successful season, but they're doing just that, ripping along at a 60-41 mark and just behind the Red Sox for the best record in baseball. They're actually better on the road than they are at home (34-20 vs. 26-21) and despite Joe Morgan's bewildering insistence that Gary "Loudmouth" Sheffield is the sole reason for their offensive prowess (Joe, A) they were a good-hitting club last year, and b) have you, uh, heard of Magglio Ordonez) their strength still lies in their pitching. Rogers went down and they didn't miss a beat, as Justin Verlander is turning in a sterling sophomore effort and already has a no-hitter to his credit. Second Half: If the Tigers can fight off the marauding Indians, they should make a return playoff visit. They'll have their work cut out for them to get back to the Fall Classic, though, let alone win it.

Cleveland: I underestimated them, figuring they'd resemble their 2006 selves more than their 2005 selves, but I was wrong yet again, and they're fighting the Tigers tooth and nail, currently only one game arrears of the Motor City Kitties and sporting a shiny 59-42 record. Cleveland is usually a solid club, and is making a very real push for the AL Central title. Detroit lost it (thanks to the Royals) in the final few days of the season last year, so nothing's impossible. Second Half: My previous pick to click in the Central, the Twins, uh... didn't live up to it, so I'll jinx the Indians by picking them. Apologies to Tribe fans.

Minnesota: The Twins made a sweep of the major awards last season -- Cy Young for Santana, AL batting title for Mauer, and MVP for Morneau (who has 28 HR this season and is trailing only Alex Rodriguez -- I think -- in the AL). So why are they so bad, or at least, not that good? (51-50 as of this writing). Answer: No one after Santana in the rotation, His Johanness looking mortal, not enough hitting, and just plain bad luck. I thought they'd be the team to beat in this division, but overestimated them while similarly undervaluing the Tigers and Indians. Second Half: Unless they can snatch out the Central title with hours on the clock like they did last year, the Twins really don't have a realistic shot at unseating the leaders.

Chicago: Man, what a meteoric plummet. I guess the White Sox realized that although they've gotten off the World Series schneid, they're still supposed to be a bad team. They've fulfilled that billing admirably, waffling along ten games under .500 and only two ahead of the Royals for possession of the cellar. The offense I talked up in the beginning of the year has taken a season-long catnap and GM Kenny Williams has gone into rumored fire sale mode with his starters, who I correctly tabbed as mediocre. (At least I got SOMETHING right). Jon Garland, Javier Vasquez, and Jose Contreras are all on the block for the right price, as Williams tries to wring a king's ransom for average-to-bad pitchers. But since the market for starters is so thin, he may be able to command a decent return anyway. The same can't be said of his team, who will tread water at best. Second Half: Nothing worthy of note. The Sox already got their highlight with Mark Buehrle's no-hitter (conversely, the only pitcher that's definitely staying after he got an extension).

Kansas City: Like anybody's surprised. 43-57 and still solidly in last in one of baseball's toughest divisions, in this case by a 16.5-game gap. Gil Meche, the much-maligned, has been all right (7-7, 3.76) and, just as I predicted, got named an All-Star. While it wasn't quite the Mark Redman silliness, it still shows that the All-Star Game is a joke.... What? The Royals? They're still not worth mentioning and are a few years at least, possibly a decade, away from contending. Plus, they're still owned by David Glass. Second Half: Does anybody still follow the Royals? Well, if they do, they are brave souls, are to be commended, and will probably be treated to more bad baseball.

AL WEST

Anaheim: I refuse to call them by their full (and ridiculous) name. And they are fulfilling my prediction that they'd take the West, except they're doing it quite a bit more handily than I thought they would. They're leading by three and a half games, but their chief challenger is not the Athletics -- it's the surprising Mariners. The Angels have a stable of prospects to shop, strong pitching, and have a few holes they need to patch, but they still have Vlad Guerrero, who one of these days will probably swing at an intentional walk pitch and hit it over the fence. Second Half: I was right, there's no unseating the Ridiculous Names atop the West, who will probably win yet another playoff berth. As long as they take out the Yankees in the first round, it's all good.

Seattle: Everyone, myself included, didn't really expect the Mariners to make a push this year -- and then they went and did it anyway, kicking into a higher gear after a typically disappointing start to the season. They currently sit at 54-45, but are currently embroiled in a bit of a skid, just breaking a five-game losing streak. Mike Hargrove's puzzling resignation as the Mariners were their hottest didn't appear to matter much at first, and interim manager John McLaren has done a fine job. The Mariners locked up franchise cornerstone Ichiro Suzuki at five years and $90 million, which I expect will be another mistake contract by the time it's run its duration -- what big-money pact isn't? -- but I guess they weren't going to let him walk. The rotation is still suspect, but it remains to be seen how long Seattle can make it work. Second Half: May make Los Angeles Angels of Huntington Beach Lakewood hot under the collar, but doubtful that they'll unseat them.

Oakland: Well, I blew it. Perhaps I have a tendency (well, yes, I do) to bias my predictions in favor of teams I like, and I guess I failed to properly take into account that Oakland has a team made of china men who fall over at the slightest breeze. Well, I did, but one has to wonder what the hell Larry Davis is doing to make the A's use the DL whenever and wherever somebody breathes too hard. That and Joe Kennedy really is as bad as his numbers suggest, Chad Gaudin is becoming human again after a Cy-like start, and Dan Haren, despite starting the All-Star Game, has scuffled in July to tarnish his previously sub-2 ERA. The A's have been forced to use so many call-ups they might as well rename themselves the Rivercats, and I think I'm officially done with Rich Harden. Makes a few starts, does brilliantly, hurts himself and disappears. The best theory now is try to keep him in bubble wrap for a couple weeks and peddle him off on a GM who still thinks he's not the next Kerry Wood/Mark Prior/Mike Hampton. Second Half: The A's entered the break in need of a patented second-half surge to get them out of the doldrums and back into contention, but it's not going to happen. They're 48-53, under .500 and pretty much done for the season, and it'll be interesting to see who stays and who goes come July 31.

Texas: If the Rangers thought that hiring fiery Ron Washington was going to help light a fire under their underachieving rears, they were mistaken. They're a sad 46-56, solidly in the cellar (although Oakland has only three games to work with) and rumors have bubbled up of Washington's hard-nose style not playing well in the clubhouse and creating a schism between manager and players. The Rangers still have no pitching (hard to believe Kevin Millwood was the AL ERA leader a few years ago) and Mark Teixeira is seemingly a lock to be traded before the deadline. On the bright side, they have C.J. Wilson. Read his blog. Second Half: Nothing really worth remarking on. C.J. may write some more and make me laugh.

Okay, that's done. Gah... that took too long, spanned the entire time it took for me to watch the Rockies lose 5-4 to the Dodgers, and didn't make me feel better about this royally rotten day. Seriously, everything that could go wrong did, and I'm hoping that tomorrow will be better. It pretty much has to be.

I'm out.