Preseason Preview: Rockies

Another day, another night that I am putting off reading my philosophy assignment. Don't get me wrong, I love the class, but when I get back from dinner at 6:21 PM on a damp, cool Thursday evening, my thoughts do not turn immediately to contemplating the extent of reality, the fallibility of human knowledge, etc., etc. So instead, it's time for the last of the three main team previews, although I may write paragraphs about the 27 other teams in MLB that I haven't covered in any detail yet. Some, of course, are glossed over in the course of the Overall Preview, some just aren't worth writing about (the Royals, for example, aside from the ridiculous contract they gave Gil Meche) and I don't care about the others. So, here we have it - the last of the in-depth hashing-through.

Why the Rockies, as I am aware they haven't been a topic of much conversation before? The reason for that is that they weren't in the playoffs, and the Cards and A's were. As to why, well, A) I really started to like the Rockies this summer - after all, they're my hometown team - once my sister and I discovered the miracle of the free-ticket vouchers they give out to all ladies on Wednesday night. We are hitting that up majorly. B) Brad Hawpe has a fiiiiine ass. I'm a straight woman, okay?! My love of the game would go on if Martians were playing it, but as long as there are men out there doing their thing in tight pants and high socks, I am fully allowed to appreciate it. My sister and I began steadily choosing seats in right field just to look at Mr. Hawpe's posterior portions. Disturbing, I know.

Also, C) I may have a job with the Rockies this summer!!! How awesome is that? I put out some feelers with a cover letter and resume addressed to the VP of Human Resources, and got a voice mail message back saying that they may have an opening for me in Ticketing Services this summer. I don't care if it's sitting in a boring office and answering calls from bitchy Denverites, I will be at the park, in my element, and I will love it. Looooove it. Call me back and give me the job, James Valdez, aka Nice Man Who Telephoned Me. :) I will work at Wal-Mart if I absolutely have to, in order to supplant my unfortunately diminishing bank account, but it goes without saying that I would MUCH rather do it for the Rox.

Yes, well. Onwards and upwards. Due to the fact that I haven't watched the Rockies closely until last year, I don't have quite the encyclopedic knowledge of them that I do of the A's and Cards; i.e. I can't name the pitch arsenal for every starter the way I can do for those two. I do, however, have a general working knowledge of the team, and it's enough to propel me through my latest round of bad predictions.

The Colorado Rockies

Starters

Who's Gone? All-time wins leader Jason Jennings (yes, well, it's the Rockies we're talking about here) vacated the humidored premises for the humid premises. In other words, he was traded to Houston for Dan O' Dowd's favorite breed of ballplayer, pitching prospects. Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsh, and a low-OBPing center fielder, Willy Taveras, registered as the final haul. Jennings had a much better year once they started using the humidors (the pitchers loved it, the hitters, not so much...) and was the wins leader, even if that's mildly uninspiring when you consider this is a baseball club started in 1993. Jennings' loss does destabilize the rotation, and despite O'Dowd's almost ludicrous belief in rebuilding, it remains to be seen how the Rockies' young pitchers will be shaped without a veteran(ish) presence at the head.

Who's Here? Jeff Francis, a young Canadian lefty hailed as the future ace after a decent-to-solid season (13-11, 4.16, 117 K, which was nonetheless a marked improvement, ERA-wise, after he posted a 5.68 figure in '05). Aaron Cook, two years removed from potentially life-threatening blood clots in both lungs, figures to back him up in the #2 slot; he pitched well last year but received low run support for a slightly misleading 9-15 final record. Other than those two, things are less settled. Josh Fogg, whose last name can also be spelled B-A-D-D, figures to be sucking up the #4 or #5 job, while Jason Hirsh may attempt to make a name for himself. Skinny soft-tossing sidewinder Byun-Hyung Kim, somewhat removed from his status as 2001 World Series trivia question answer, will probably be in the running as well, despite an 8-12 record and a 5.57 ERA. He has awful peripherals all around, but somehow managed to pitch well on the occasions in which I was personally in attendance. Never fear, though, if I was an ameliorating effect on terrible pitchers, Jose Mesa wouldn't have appeared, which he did far too frequently for anyone's peace of mind.

Brian Lawrence, ex-Padres righty signed for a song after an injury-ruined 2006, may also try to compete. Seeing as he was 7-15 with a 4.83 ERA in his last full Major League season, I'm not thrilled, but alas, this is the type of players that the Rockies go for. Whether they're the only ones they can afford is another question. They shelled out $100 million for Todd Helton, but both Helton and his contract are separate matters which shall be addressed below.

In the meantime, let us take a look at the probable starting five for the purple and black's latest incarnation.

- Jeff Francis (with Jennings out of the picture, the weight of expectation falls on young Francis, optimistically called 'Franchise' by some in the Rockies blogosphere. I think it's much too early to be applying such cornerstone cappers to pitchers who have only ever won 2 more than they've lost - albeit ones with only three full MLB seasons under their belts. Francis did lower his ERA substantially last year, which again could be due to the humidor, and showed flashes of brilliance, such as one-hitting my beloved Cards through eight innings, but it remains to be seen if being hailed as an ace will substantially change his gameplan. This is Colorado, of course, where Cy Young doesn't exactly roam on the range, but if Francis can continue to mature, he could be better than league average).
- Aaron Cook (sidelined in the middle of '05 by dangerous blood clots in both lungs, Cook possesses a sweet success-against-all-odds story and was the recipient of the Tony Conigliaro Award for his efforts to get back in the game. Cook pitches with reasonable competence, which is, sadly, the most you can ever really expect from a Rockies starter, and next to Francis, is the sure-ticket thing for the rotation. He will need to get more run support to boost what was otherwise a decent line, but the lack of it cost him several ticks in the win category).
-Byung-Hyun Kim (Home ERA: 5.79. Road: 6.75. Grass : 5.63. Turf: 13.50. Day: 0.00. Night: 9.53. Doesn't really sound like a guy you'd want pitching in any situation, does it? Kim's sole saving grace being that he held righties to a .192 average, he nonetheless figures to be occupying a slot for at least part of the season. So... let me get this straight... if we pitch him only during the day... against righties.... at home.... then he'll win 20+ games, the Cy Young, and the MVP. The humidor is, evidently, remaining, but I don’t think that that will help Kim all that much. He may get the Ryan Franklin Neck Strain watching hitters blast homers.
- Rodrigo Lopez (the definition of serial suckitude, Lopez's end results were - not pretty. 5.90 ERA, 9-18 record... yikes. Unfortunately, he will probably be shouldering a substantial amount of innings in the rotation, and there have even been murmurings about him stepping it up to be the Number One guy. Yes, we truly have fallen into a sad state of affairs... yet whatever wise leadership dear Rodrigo could provide would strictly be of the veteran variety - aka how to last a long time in the big leagues, with bad stats, without even being left-handed - as Francis is otherwise looked to as the number one in regards to his stuff).
- Jason Hirsh (you're going to be hearing it a lot - he's big. It'll be the "6-foot-8 righty this" and the "6'8" hurler that." Hirsh, in addition to his height, weighs 250 pounds, both of which beg the question a) what was his mother eating when pregnant with him? and b) who can you possibly choose to bring along as a sidekick in event of a bar fight? Richie Sexson, possibly. I must admit that I know very little about Hirsh, except that he was acquired in the Jennings trade, he likes to write (mad props, man! Mad props!... except that reading his journal, I see he has bad grammar and a flagrant disregard for the apostrophe's proper usage - mark against) and he's, well, big. He is, however, or rather was, the Astros' top pitching prospect, racking up a slew of awards to the tune of 2005/2006 Pitcher of the Year (Texas League and Pacific Coast League, respectively) and the Triple-A Starting Pitcher of the Year. He had a 13-8 record but a 2.87 ERA).
- Josh Fogg (unfortunately so. Fogg, or Badd, as he could more accurately be called, just isn't that good. Or is that goodd? Somehow, he managed to end up with a better record than Cook - 11-9 - but he also posted a more accurate 5.49 ERA, which was reflective of his pitching. The only place Fogg was slightly useful was on turf, but unfortunately, every other peripheral is screaming negative VORP. If you're a totally geeky sabermetrician, you'll get it; otherwise, in layman's terms, he's bad. 5/6 innings and 4/5 runs is Fogg's game, which will hardly improve and may get worse).

Also possible, as mentioned, Brian Lawrence could make a run for the rotation if healthy; same with Taylor Buchholz. The five mentioned above appear to be the front-runners. It's never easy rotationally in Colorado, and this could be another slog through inflated ERAs and bloated WHIPs. However, it seems that my information was mistaken and that the humidor is, in fact, staying, so if the pitching can do well and combine with improved hitting, this team could have a shot.

Best-Case Scenario: Francis continues to mature as a pitcher and puts up, if not exactly a Cy-worthy line, then one better than has been seen in Colorado for quite some time, lowering his ERA into the high threes and racking up more Ks with better use of his fastball to compliment his offspeed repertoire, so hitters don't sit on him quite so much. Cook gets some run support and wins more than he loses, while Hirsh proves to be the same pitcher at the MLB level than he is at the minor-league level. Lawrence makes a successful return from injury, and Lopez manages to match his decent peripherals to decent performance. Kim is used sparingly for spot starts. Fogg falls off the face of the earthh.

Worst-Case Scenario: Everyone gets sandblasted more acutely than usual.

Bullpen

It's important to mention that the Rockies carried out a case of addition by subtraction when they mercifully did not re-sign Jose Mesa, serial game blower, to a new contract after his one-year pact expired. Known as the hometown goat in a number of teams, the reason Mesa has been to so many is because he's bad. And not like Josh Fogg-badd either, in which he manages to scrape together enough barely competent outings to fool the casual observer. No, Mesa is just bad, and now he's bad for the Tigers. Hallelujah!

That said... I have very little complimentary to say about the state of the bullpen.

- Brian Fuentes (the only Rockie bullpen man with a stake to being, yes, good, Fuentes was an All-Star last year, and not only because they had to choose one from every team. With a 3-4 record, 3.44 ERA, and 30 saves against 73 K, Fuentes was quite solidly competent last year and did well in his tour of duty as the Rockies' closer. Point of worry: that fugly 8.10 home ERA. The going isn't about to become any easier next year at Coors, either. However, most of those putrid outings came right after the All-Star break, at which Fuentes, having proven his mettle, retreated briefly to the environs of mediocrity-to-awfulness inhabited by his mates).
- Jeremy Affeldt (acquired from the Royals ... yes, the Royals, as if they ever set the bar for baseball excellence, posted a 4-2 record and 6.91 ERA in half a season for the Rockies last year. Sadly, it won't get better, as Affeldt scuffled through the Royals' rotation and bullpen before being considerately removed to Denver for Dan O'Dowd and his amazing developmental machine to work on. Thus far, it seems to be missing a part).
- Manny Corpas (the bullpen's only legitimate claimant to being a firethrower, Corpas can touch the high-90s with his fastball and looked unhittable at times last year. He balanced it with the expected number of debacles from a member of the Rockies bullpen, but still managed to end up with a 1-2, 3.62 final tally, with 27 K in 32 innings).
- Tom Martin (I could go on about possible competence, decent ability if used only in very, very controlled situations, unavoidable necessity, and would have a spot on the roster even if he had a third head since he's left-handed, but decided to be pithy: Will generally suck).
- Ramon Ramirez (another no-name bullpen part, who will be used in assorted situations in which Clint Hurdle is trying to stall for time by making pitching changes, not that said pitcher will help in any capacity generally related to winning a baseball game. For those cold Denver nights, he will be instrumental in keeping the bullpen bench warm).
- LaTroy Hawkins (he was bad for the Twins, Cubs, Giants, and Orioles, and now, by golly, he's bad for the Rockies. Dan O'Dowd is the only one who can answer why he considers a guy with a 4.75 career ERA a "vital piece." Imagine if Mesa was still here - it would be a black hole of suck).
- Ryan Speier (you're waiting for me to bust out another joke here, and I wish I could oblige, but Speier was actually okay last year, if 10 ER in 24 IP for a 3.65 ERA is okay. It's possible he could be less terrible than the others, which is like asking a lake to be a little less wet than the ocean, I understand, but you can't have everything. Another big guy, at 6-foot-7 and 210 pounds. What is it with the Rockies and tall pitchers? Are they amassing a bionic army, and THAT is the true purpose of Dan O'Dowd's developing plan? Scary. It seems the circuits fell out in Helton last year, though, so they may need to get a new robotics engineer. You'd also think that cyborgs could put up better collective ERAs.

Best-Case Scenario: Fuentes continues to thrive as a closer and avoids the riotously terrible patch that he struggled with last year. Everyone else posts ERAs in the low fours and don't blow more than 12 games between them.

Worst-Case Scenario: Nobody, including Fuentes, has an ERA under 5 and once ballgames are past the fifth or sixth inning, they become a holy nightmare for the Rox and the Coors Field faithful. (Believe or not, there are some people who care passionately about the team and come to see them. Although I'm not quite at this stage, I must admit that they're definitely growing on me).

EDIT: It has been brought to my attention that the humidor is being kept after all – the MLB rules require all baseballs to be stored in regulated environments and the Rox, because of it, were already in compliance. Therefore, I am adjusting the pitchers' numbers – and the team’s overall record – accordingly.

The Nonexpert Nostradamus Predicts:

Starters
Jeff Francis, LHP, 15-10, 4.05 ERA, 201 IP, 135 K, 32 starts
Aaron Cook, RHP, 15-12, 4.12 ERA, 215 IP, 95 K, 32 starts
Byung-Hyun Kim, RHP, 7-10, 4.78 ERA, 144 IP, 125 K, 25 starts
Rodrigo Lopez, RHP, 8-14, 5.31 ERA, 170 IP, 101 K, 24 starts
Josh Fogg, RHP, 10-15, 5.24 ERA, 165 IP, 85 K, 30 starts
Jason Hirsh, RHP, 7-4, 4.05 ERA, 93 IP, 56 K, 10 starts
Brian Lawrence, RHP, 3-2, 4.90 ERA, 70 IP, 28 K, 5 starts

Taylor Buchholz, RHP, 3-4, 4.65 ERA, 75 IP, 32 K, 4 starts

Relievers
Brian Fuentes, LHP, 4-2, 3.15 ERA, 31 SV/37 SVO
Jeremy Affeldt, RHP, 1-1, 6.04 ERA, 1 SV/3 SVO
Manny Corpas, RHP, 3-2, 3.34 ERA, 2 SV/3 SVO
Ramon Ramirez, RHP, 2-2, 4.55 ERA, 1 SV/1 SVO
Tom Martin, LHP, 2-3, 5.64 ERA, 0 SV/o SVO
LaTroy Hawkins, 1-1, 4.77 ERA, 2 SV/ 5 SVO

Hoooooly crow, that is not the most beautiful bullpen I’ve ever seen. The starters – read: Francis and Cook) could continue to improve, but I’m leery of that back end. As for the bullpen, it’s, well, the Rockies’ bullpen. Fuentes is the only guy I'd take to have a decent-to-good season, although the other guys might step it up if used correctly by Clint Hurdle, another thing which is not guaranteed. As usual, the thin air of Denver is going to wreak havoc on the poor Rockies' arms - they've tried everything they can in order to secure some midline talent, but haven't gone after the topflight tier - when they do, their acquisitions prove to suck and/or get arrested on Colfax with, um, women of the evening (see: Hampton, Mike and Neagle, Denny). If the Rockies have the pitching to back up what could be a thunderous offense, cogs might finally start turning in Denver.

HITTING

Projected Lineup (by position)

1B Todd Helton (coming off an off-year where he hit only 15 HR despite driving in 81, Helton posted the lowest average for a full season - .302, which is actually bad when you consider that he's tops in terms of career average among all active players, with a .333 mark. Yeah, yeah, there were all the unpleasant whispers about losing chemical enhancement, but Todd is 33 (34 in August) and even the best players must decline. That said, he was also struggling with a nasty stomach bug last year, for which he was briefly hospitalized, and admitted that he came back too early. If he's healthy, look for his numbers to tick back upwards).
2B Jamey Carroll/Kazuo Matsui (Carroll was a beast at Coors Field last year, posting a .371 average in Denver, but suffered when the team went on the road, dropping drastically to .219. It seemed as if he was constantly on base whenever he was playing the A's or the Cards, which was probably why I noticed - we nicknamed him the 'Pest.' Most are tabbing him for a fall, but if taking out the humidor will hurt the pitchers, it may help the hitters. Kaz Matsui is the Japanese superstar that wasn't, playing two highly disappointing years for the Mets before being shuttled off to Colorado, and he and Carroll figure to split playing time at this slot. Neither is a great power hitter, but both, and Carroll in particular, have the ability to get on by stinging singles to the right side. Carroll is also unafraid to steal once on base, although sometimes he gets a bit too eager and is picked off at first).
SS Troy Tulowitzki/Clint Barmes (Barmes started off boiling-hot in '05, hitting close to .400, but got injured in the well-publicized event of falling down the stairs while carrying deer meat, and wasn't the same afterwards. He had far, far too many ABs in 2006, as Clint the Second, better known as Hurdle, refused to believe that the 27-year-old was no longer very good with the bat. As in, most replacement-level players should be easily able to outstrip the woeful .220 mark that Barmes ended up with. Tulowitzki, considered the Rox's shortstop of the future, is a 22-year-old former Cal State-Long Beach standout, but Hurdle, being Hurdle, has announced that he'll give Barmes a shot to get his job back, which means that he'll probably still be clogging up ABs that Tulo could be taking).
3B Garrett Atkins (as a note completely unrelated to his hitting, my mother commented that when they announced Atkins over the PA system, his name sounded like 'Pterodactyl.' Yes, well, the Flying Dinosaur has proven himself to be a very legit major-league hitter, racking up a near-MVP-caliber line of .329/29/120. His slugging percentage was also .556, and he hit almost equally well on the road as at home - .316 vs. .346 - one of the few Rockies who's exempt from whatever screwy combination they're using with the humidor. Atkins is also a beast when it comes to runners in scoring position, registering .341 with ducks on the pond. In short, a very good young hitter who should only improve).
RF Brad Hawpe/Jeff Baker (Hawpe is also a legit power threat, but his long swing can sometimes throw him off-balance and makes his K total higher than it otherwise might have been. .293/22/84 is nothing to sneeze at, and Hawpe has a cannon of a left arm that cuts down countless daring runners that try to stretch a single into a double and a double into a triple. If he could shorten up and compact his swing a bit, and increase his peripheral numbers - .255 with runners on and .232 against lefties - he could be another true heavy-hitter. Baker is another late-season call-up who hit .368 in limited duty and may see more action if Hawpe continues to struggle vs. lefties).
CF Willy Taveras/Cory Sullivan/Ryan Spilborghs/Jeff Salazar (quite frankly, the Rockies' CF situation doesn't have a clear front-runner. Heaven help us if Taveras plays often, as he's terrible at getting on base and would probably hit leadoff - two traits which do not reconcile except in the possibly demented skull of O'Dowd. However, he has speed - he stole 33 bases last year - so if he does get on, he can run. Sullivan may also see a substantial amount of playing time, and Spilborghs and Salazar can switch between center and right).
LF Matt Holliday (the only Rockies outfielder that has his position locked down with clamps is Holliday, who turned into an absolute beast last year at age 26 and should keep it up this year at 27, traditionally the best year for a ballplayer. Holliday posted a .326/34/114 final line in 2006, despite scuffling a bit away from Coors, where he hit .280. That's by no means bad, but it doesn't exactly compare to the rampaging .371 average he amassed in Denver. He also hit .200 with runners in scoring position and two outs, and his defense can be a bit erratic at times, but his bat more than makes up for it. He's not eligible for free agency until 2008 (I think... could be 2009) which means that he's under club control for the next two years, but they have very little chance of re-signing him after that... he's all but announced his intentions to test the open market when he hired the Devil - I mean Scott Boras - as his agent. If Boras can get $55 million for Gil Meche, I cringe to think what he can command for Holliday, and in the meantime, the management will be soaked annually by the single-year pacts that will drag us through Matt's arbitration years. Sadly, it appears as if he'll be another great hitter that we can't keep, but in the meantime, he should continue to mash).
C Yorvit Torrealba/Chris Iannetta/Javy Lopez (he of the odd name, Yorvit will be challenged by yet another youngster, Iannetta, another "Rockie of the future" who will be fighting him for the starting spot. Torrealba, the veteran, figures to see more time, but Iannetta will undoubtedly be in there, sooner rather than later if Torrealba tanks. In Yorvit's favor, he does hit .370 with runners in scoring position and two outs, so he's good for late-inning clutch situations. Javy Lopez, acquired during the winter, hasn't had a decent season in a while, but it's quite possible he'll see a significant amount of games from behind the plate. Another position where there isn't a clear-cut front-runner, as the two veterans may see the majority of time, but expect Iannetta in the mix somewhere).

Best-Case Scenario: Atkins, Holliday, and Hawpe continue to blossom, backed up by a healthy Todd Helton, while youngsters Salazar, Baker, and Iannetta are impressive and manage to establish themselves as incumbents. The Rockies are the Blake Street Bombers v. 2.0, the humidor in place keeps the ERA numbers down, and they can look legit. The Rox improve to the point of actually competing in the NL West, going late into the season with a shot at the title. It's doubtful that they take it, but even a non-last-place finish would please the fans at this point.

Worst-Case Scenario: Helton can't recover and continues to decline, while Atkins and Holliday take steps backwards and Hawpe can't cut down on his spotty clutch numbers. The youngsters get overwhelmed and the veterans are underwhelming. The bats can't make up the holes dug by the arms and Colorado sinks to the bottom of the West again.

The Nonexpert Nostradamus Predicts:

Todd Helton, L/L, 1B: .318 AVG, 21 HR, 90 RBI, .430 OBP, .490 SLG, .920 OPS
Jamey Carroll, R/R, 2B: .301 AVG, 2 HR, 27 RBI, .363 OBP, .390 SLG, .753 OPS
Kazuo Matsui, S/R, 2B: .262 AVG, 3 HR, 30 RBI, .327 OBP, .436 SLG, .763 OPS
Clint Barmes, R/R, SS: .237 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .270 OBP, .330 SLG, .600 OPS
Troy Tulowitzki, R/R, SS: .282 AVG, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .330 OBP, .340 SLG, .670 OPS
Garrett Atkins, R/R, 3B: .331 AVG, 33 HR, 130 RBI, .400 OBP, .567 SLG, .967 OPS
Brad Hawpe, L/L, RF: .301 AVG, 27 HR, 95 RBI, .399 OBP, .530 SLG, .929 OPS
Jeff Baker, R/R, RF: .312 AVG, 14 HR, 46 RBI, .385 OBP, .477 SLG, .862 OPS
Ryan Spilborghs, R/R, RF/CF: .270 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .330 OBP, .415 SLG, .745 OPS
Cory Sullivan, L/L, CF: .272 AVG, 3 HR, 31 RBI, .317 OBP, .375 SLG, .692 OPS
Willy Taveras, R/R, CF: .260 AVG, 1 HR, 17 RBI, .314 OBP, .323 SLG, .637 OPS
Jeff Salazar, L/L, CF: .293 AVG, 9 HR, 56 RBI, .378 OBP, .433 SLG, .811 OPS
Matt Holliday, R/R, LF: .339 AVG, 38 HR, 125 RBI, .390 OBP, .600 SLG, .960 OPS
Yorvit Torrealba, R/R, C: .250 AVG, 6 HR, 44 RBI, .299 OBP, .405 SLG, .704 OPS
Javy Lopez, R/R, C: .244 AVG, 7 HR, 39 RBI, .301 OBP, .364 SLG, .665 OPS
Chris Iannetta, R/R, C: .270 AVG, 8 HR, 50 RBI, .375 OBP, .387 SLG, .762 OPS

Now this is an offense. I might venture to say that out of the Cards, A's, and Rockies, the Rockies have the best position-by-position offensive production of the three. They clearly outstrip the A's, and while the Cards have Pujols and Rolen, they just don't have the same steady firepower that the Rockies do. This is the fun part about this young team, and that's what got me hooked on them. However, despite this, I still hesitate to say that the Rockies will be contenders. Why? Two simple words: Clint Hurdle. As one of my friends so astutely pointed out, he is the definition of a Little League manager - play everyone so no one's feelings are hurt, no matter how bad/ineffective they are, and in the process of mollifying egos, let's not bother to win ballgames. He utterly lacks the competitive fire of a Tony La Russa, Lou Piniella, even Ozzie Guillen type (although Guillen is a total asshole, no one can deny that he's a motivator). As long as this bland, insipid, kindly, "developer" of a non-entity is at the helm, no matter how much of a nice guy he may be, the Rox are going to struggle even in a division that's been cruelly, and accurately, called the NL Worst. There are no really overwhelmingly good teams in this division. The Dodgers might swing to the favorite because of their pitching, but the D-backs have 2006 NL Cy Young Winner Brandon Webb and the Big Unit, who may benefit from being out of the intense New York spotlight. The Giants are old. The Padres are valiant, but understaffed. The division is basically wide open, and the Rockies could conceivably claim it if they went for the jugular. Will they? No.

The other reason the Rockies won't get anywhere is because they have a bad front office. Dan O'Dowd has a legendary history of making bad trades, usually to score more pitching prospects who then turn out to be busts. He also won't pony up the cash for top-tier players, doesn't keep established players, and generally seems to be playing constantly for the future at the expense of the present. It's frustrating - this team is not a Royals/Pirates-style doormat. They have legit stars and true power hitters, and I'd like to see them finally do something with it.

OVERALL PREDICTION

The Giants stayed old, but signed Barry Zito in the process, leaving their rotation as Zito/Matt Morris/Noah Lowry/Matt Cain/Russ Ortiz, which is possibly decent but could also possibly get shelled. Of course, they have the Bonds three-ring circus still going on, which is the main focus of an old, slow, boring, uninspired team that I don't really like - I watched them play the Rockies last year and was stunned by their lack of fire and hustle. They played, well, like someone had confiscated their walkers, and their warm milk was waiting in the dugout. I don't foresee that Zito can single-handedly lead them to glory, ridiculous contract or not, and they still have Armando Blownitez, as he is not-so-affectionately known, in the bullpen, who wreaks havoc with the ninth inning.

Pitching was the name of the game for the rest of the West, as the Dodgers added Jason Schmidt and Randy Wolf, the D-backs have Cy Young winner Webb and Randy Johnson, and the Padres added Greg Maddux. The latter also added second baseman Marcus from the Braves to fill out the Brothers Giles, as older brother Brian was already on the team. Some people are tabbing the Dodgers as the favorite based on their pitching, but the fact is that nobody has a solid claim to this division. The Dodgers and Padres ended up in a deadlock record-wise last year, with the Padres winning the West by dint of their head-to-head record against the Boys in Blue - 13-5. Everyone else - Giants, D-backs, and Rockies - piled up on each other with successive records of 76-85, 76-86, and 76-86, so it'll be a dogfight for the cellar.

How I envision things shaping up (but in this division, I could very easily be wrong on every single slot). Because of the humidor, I’m going to bump up the Rockies’ win totals a bit and assume that the pitchers improve. I’ll give the Rox a .500 season, which in itself would be a milestone.

NL WEST
1. Dodgers, 86-76
2. Padres, 85-77
3. Giants, 82-80
4. Rockies, 81-81
5. Diamondbacks, 75-87

That concludes the in-depth previews, ladies and gents. More baseball to come soon, along with some Spring Training photos off Yahoo! and no doubt one or two more interesting little nuggets that my baseball-starved psyche can mine.

Preseason Preview: Athletics

So it's Tuesday night and I should be reading the latest dense section of John Locke's An Essay on Human Understanding in preparation for my philosophy class tomorrow, which I like because it falls on the only day of the week, aside from Monday, that I don't have to get up at 8:45, which is anathemically early to a college student such as myself who prizes sleep highly. So what am I doing instead? Two things. Working on my collection of stories for my second-semester writing project, and attempting to tackle the issue of constructing a coherent preview for the A's ala the one the Cards received the last time. I was planning to do this yesterday, but you have to be in a certain mood to crunch all the numbers, and besides, I had a lot of homework. However, seeing as I have a good two hours before I need to read more philosophy, I thought I'd get it done for the green and gold. Off we go.

The Oakland A's

PITCHING

Starters

Who's Gone? Most importantly, Barry Zito, staff leader. The veteran of Oakland's youthful mound men, he led the team with 16 wins and a 3.83 ERA and fled cross-Bay for the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history, a seven-year, $126 million albatross doled out by the increasingly desperate Giants. They apparently believe that two overpaid Barrys are better than one and that Zito's relative youth - 28, 29 in May - can counteract the average age of el Gigantes, which is approximately 80. Other than that, no notable departures.

Who's Here? Any question involving the A's starting rotation, of which many have been floating about this offseason with good reason, come down to one inescapable caveat emptor - will Rich Harden be healthy? Classic case of buyer beware, as A's fans really want to get excited about their young potential ace with the sweet smile and the 100-mph heat, but constant injury woes the past few seasons have besieged him and he's never topped 200 innings pitched - the closest he came was in'04, when he logged 189.2 IP with an 11-7 mark and a 3.99 ERA. Not bad, but there's room for improvement, especially for someone with as meteoric a talent as Harden. With Zito gone, he's looked to as a bona-fide ace, but will the 25-year-old Canadian be able to shake off his recent problems, ranging from a shoulder strain incurred while turning off an alarm clock to a number of back and oblique troubles? It's very important.

Backing up Harden is #2 guy Danny Haren, who I steadfastly refuse to call "Dan" ala other media outlets. Things are less settled after that, with #3 Joe Blanton and #4 Esteban Loaiza generally guaranteed starting spots unless they do some massive pooch-screwing in Spring Training. The fifth slot in the rotation, as with the Cards, is unsettled for the A's. Hefty lefty Joe Kennedy appears to be the front-runner. I'm less than tickled about this (see old post entitled: I Hate Joe Kennedy) but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. Other names being tossed around include Brad Halsey, Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, and Lenny DiNardo. Hmm. Nothing stellar. Zito's shoes won't be easily filled. Also, the rotation is entirely righty, without the benefit of a lefty to put in there to change things up... another thing that departed with Zito.

A slot-by-slot look goes:

- Rich Harden (now regarded as Oakland's #1 guy, Harden, as mentioned, has a lot to prove. When he's on, he's absolutely unhittable, and sports a fastball that can top 100 mph even late in the game, plus a "ghost pitch" that is impossible to hit. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning in 2005, and racks up high K numbers. But again... the health factor is troubling, and the state of the A's rotation could go from "above average" to "pretty shitty" if he goes down again).
- Danny Haren (a legit #2, he also sports a high-90s fastball, a sinking cut fastball, a devastating splitter, and an above-average changeup, all of which he can use effectively, and mixes up well. He's also a workhorse, logging well over 200 IP the past two seasons. The 6'5" righty is regarded as the prime score from the Mulder trade, but still scuffles with unpredictability - he has the raw talent to be as good as any in the game, but can sometimes hit prolonged ruts in which he can't locate to save his life and consistently leaves the ball up in the zone).
- Joe Blanton (another weighty matter, literally, as the Kentuckian tips the scales at 255 pounds. He wins a lot of games, but tends to get lucky by relying on fortutious run support, and a decent - but not stellar - 16-12 record was made a little bit more bitter by the fact that he posted a 4.82 ERA to go with it. Not the stuff you'd want consistently out of your #3 guy - the Cards look better in comparison if you consider that Reyes or Wainwright will be taking this slot. Hopefully Blanton, not a power pitcher who relies on fine control and hitting his spots, will be improved this year. He could also stand to lose some weight).
- Esteban Loaiza (he started off terribly last year, posting an 0-3 mark and an 8+ ERA that caused much, much unhappiness in A's Nation, but was revealed to be injured, and went on the DL a day after allowing five runs in the first inning to the fricking Royals, a game which was fortunately washed out of the standings by rain. Upon his return, Loaiza was serviceable, still prone to the odd turkey, but fortunately with far less regularity. He was brilliant in August, earning Pitcher of the Month honors. He started Game 2 of the ALDS in Minnesota and only permitted 2 runs through six innings, so there is some hope for him, despite a bel0w-average 11-9/4.89 final record).
- Joe Kennedy/Brad Halsey/Jason Windsor/Shane Komine/Lenny DiNardo (as with the Cards, absolutely nobody has a lock on the final spot, although A's management seems to indicate that Kennedy is the frontrunner. A chancy reliever who comes by his numbers a bit dishonestly - he tends to let the inherited runners of other pitchers score, instead of his own - Kennedy is known as "Bazooka Joe" among the A's faithful, and nobody feels quite comfortable with him out there. Let him get one or two runners on, and he turns into a veritable horror show. Perhaps being stretched out as a starter from the get-go will help. As for Halsey, he's worse - an ex-Yankee prospect whose nickname is the Gas Can, for good reason, and not a guy I want to see starting for my team every fifth day. Windsor and Komine are the highly touted arms of the future, who each had one good start and one bad start last year before being sent back to Triple-A Sacramento. DiNardo is a 27-year-old lefty snagged off the waiver wire from the Red Sox, who had a 7.85 ERA as a reliever last year, but this could be due to persistent neck problems. Healthy, he could possibly find a role in the bullpen as a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY)

Best-Case Scenario: Harden stays healthy for the entire year, finally achieves his potential, and crafts the breakout season that the A's have been waiting for. He wins 15+ games, easily racks up 200 K, a 2-something ERA, and 200 IP. Haren matches him, posting another ERA in the high 3's with his loss total cut back by some run support. Blanton harnesses his suspect command and lowers his ERA while still winning a high number of games. Loaiza continues his round of newfound success and is a decent to good back-end starter, while Kennedy proves to be not terrible and stabilizes the fifth spot. The A's prove that their pitching, once again, carries the day for them, and they nab a second straight AL West title.

Worst-Case Scenario: It shouldn't be this easy... there's too many question marks in the rotation. Harden is injured by May and useless afterwards, logging perhaps 50 IP while the burden of making up for his absence falls largely on the incompetent shoulders of patchwork replacements. Haren continues to be steady, but gets tagged with too many losses since the bats can't help him out. Blanton posts an ERA north of 5 while his win total declines due to spotty control, and Loaiza regains April '06 form, resulting in an ignominious departure by the break, at which point the A's are steadily sinking in the AL West. Kennedy, Halsey, and everyone else give up runs like a sieve. The Elephants are unequivocally doomed.

Bullpen

- Kiko Calero (another piece of the Mulder deal, Calero is as close to automatic as a 7th-inning guy can be. He's prone to the odd misstep, of course, but for the most part, he's an exceptional late-game reliever who relies almost exclusively on his hard, biting slider. He's never really done anything to disillusion me, and when I see him coming in after a pitching change, I feel confident that we'll get to the next inning with the lead intact).
- Justin Duchscherer (known fondly as The Duke, Duchscherer(rererererer...) is a vastly underrated gem. He was Oakland's All-Star representative in 2005, possibly by default, possibly because Duke is one of the absolute best relievers in the game today. He has put strangleholds and padlocks on the eighth inning, posted a 2.91 ERA in '06, and is one of the very few guys on either of my teams at which I breathe a sigh of relief to see him coming in. Absolute trust).
- Huston Street (the final piece of the Unholy Troika which compromises Calero, Duchscherer, and himself, Street can nonetheless sometimes look the most fallible of the lot. Chosen in the 2004 draft from UT Austin, he made it to the big leagues in '05 and kept the Rookie of the Year crown in Oakland after Bobby Crosby had won it the previous year. However, he was prone to that troublesome sophomore slump, blowing a total of 11 saves and not always looking entirely comfortable on the mound. However, he has admitted that he was injured, didn't feel quite right, and is completely healthy now, which leads Oakland fans to expect a repeat of his stellar freshman compaign. Hopefully - good closers are a rare breed).
- Santiago Casilla (the masked man, who used to be known as Jairo Garcia, he's decent and killed everyone in Triple-A, but hasn't shown true major-league talent yet. Mainly used as a mopup guy last year, it's possible he could see action in more meaningful games this year. Not sure how I feel about that).
-Ron Flores (the younger brother of Randy Flores of the Cardinals; I suppose every team needs one. A soft-tossing, wily junkballer, who either utterly baffles hitters or gets his butt kicked, Flores is inscrutable, and can either pull off a great save or blow it all to hell. Even if he does do the former, it usually involves wiggling out of some baserunning jams, so, uh, nothing's certain).
- Jay Witasick (is a punchline for A's fans. I have fond memories of him due to conversing briefly with him while the A's were in Denver, and found him a personable and funny guy. None of my fond memories, however, have to do with his pitching).
- Alan Embree (journeyman, with the Red Sox, the Yankees, and the Padres among his recent employers, he nonetheless posted a fair 3.27 ERA last year, but in Oakland, with the late innings locked down between Calero/Duchscherer/Street, I foresee him being used only to get the ball to one of the three).
-Chad Gaudin (terrific K numbers, but equally shocking B/B numbers, as he walks as many people as he strikes out. When he pounds the strike zone, he can display flashes of brilliance, but all those walks keep coming back to bite him).

Best-Case Scenario: Calero, Duchscherer, and Street dominate. Fortunately, this is very likely to happen, as Oakland's bullpen revolves entirely around the three and everyone else is supporting cast in order to give the big men the most innings. This is as it should be. However, the building is as only strong as its infrastructure, and if the fill-in guys can't get the game to the Troika with the lead intact, trouble will ensue.

Worst-Case Scenario: Calero and/or Duchscherer and/or Street go down, leaving the A's to patch the absences with pick-and-choose junk. The game becomes a very dicey proposition after the sixth or seventh inning, or whenever the starter leaves, and because of this absence, the A's can never pull out late-game victories. Their record suffers, leaving them to drop in the standings accordingly.

The Nonexpert Nostradamus Predicts:
(again, starters/relievers listed under overall numbers)

Starters
Rich Harden, RHP, 15-6, 2.87 ERA, 195 IP, 220 K, 25 starts
Danny Haren, RHP, 15-8, 3.76 ERA, 220 IP, 200 K, 34 starts
Joe Blanton, RHP, 16-10, 4.55 ERA, 185 IP, 125 K, 33 starts
Esteban Loaiza, RHP, 14-10, 4.35 ERA, 175 IP, 100 K, 30 starts
Joe Kennedy, RHP, 10-9, 4.45 ERA, 160 IP, 90 K, 25 starts
Brad Halsey, RHP, 2-5, 4.77 ERA, 75 IP, 55 K, 7 starts
Shane Komine, RHP, 2-3, 4.66 ERA, 50 IP, 20 K, 3 starts
Jason Windsor, RHP, 2-3, 4.50 ERA, 27 IP, 15 K, 2 starts
Chad Gaudin, RHP, 3-3, 3.89 ERA, 43 IP, 20 K, 2 starts

Relievers
Huston Street, RHP, 3-2, 3.01 ERA, 34 SV/40 SVO
Justin Duchscherer, RHP, 2-1, 2.83 ERA, 3 SV/3 SVO
Kiko Calero, RHP, 3-1, 3.22 ERA, 2 SV/2 SVO
Ron Flores, LHP, 1-2, 4.86 ERA, 1 SV/2 SVO
Jay Witasick, RHP, 0-3, 5.95 ERA, 0 SV/0 SVO
Santiago Casilla, RHP, 1-3, 4.26 ERA, 1 SV/2 SVO
Lenny DiNardo, LHP, 1-0, 4.22 ERA, 1 SV/1 SVO


HITTING

Projected Lineup (positional, not batting, order)

1B Nick Swisher (a genuine power threat, who slugged 35 HR and knocked in 95, Swish nonetheless posted a surprisingly low average, .254. He's the homer-or-nothing type of guy - he's admitted freely in the past that he swings for the fences in key situations - and while that certainly has its merits, I'd like to see Swish continue to mature as a hitter and develop some more plate discipline and pitch selection).
2B Mark Ellis (the finest defensive second baseman in the AL, Ellis was gypped out of a Gold Glove last year despite posting a league-best .997 fielding percentage. There's nobody smoother with the glove, which discounts his lower offensive contributions. He hit only.249 last year, albeit with 11 HR, following a breakout year in '05 in which he hit .316).
SS Bobby Crosby (the lineup's version of Rich Harden, Crosby has good, raw talent combined with an almost preternatural ability to hurt himself. If it wasn't his finger, it was his back. If it wasn't his back, it was his rib. Ad nauseam. A number of A's fans, myself included, are growing impatient with the constant parade of injuries, and are ready to see him play up to the image of the superstar he was projected to be when Tejada left Oakland. By now, we've realized that he'll never live up to that, but if he was ever healthy, he should be good for 20+ HR. Big for a shortstop at 6'3" and 215 lb, Crosby is a smooth fielder, which is his redeeming value. Speaking of pitch selection... if you throw a slider outside in the dirt, you can bet your life that Crosby will swing at it and strike out flailing. He desperately needs to move closer to home plate and close his stance).
SSa Marco Scutaro (Oakland's magical little man, the small Venezuelan second-stringer shortstop has a knack for delivering key hits whenever the club most needs them, seven of the game-winning persuasion since he joined the club after being dropped by the Mets in 2003. He saw extensive action last year when Crosby was out of commission, but is a natural second baseman and his range can suffer a bit if he's playing deep in the hole at shortstop. Still, he's invaluable for his ability to come through in the clutch).
3B Eric Chavez (Oakland's only player with a claim to stardom, Chavy is another mercurial character who has already proven something. He's won six straight Gold Glove awards at the hot corner and is an orgasmic pleasure to watch play in the field, handling even the toughest hops with stunning ease. He's also good for 30 HR and 100 RBI most seasons, but his '06 campaign was crippled by a string of debilitating injuries that clipped his power numbers and left his average at a miserly .241. If he's in full fettle, however, he should return to his established career norms).
RF Milton Bradley (the man with the board-game name and a volatile temper, who has seemed much mollified since his transition to Oakland's frat-house atmosphere, he's a five-tool player, has decent speed and good power, and is also capable of slugging 20+ HR when healthy... alas, he's another guy with an all-too-recent injury history. Keeping him healthy with the others will be key).
CF Mark Kotsay (another Gold-Glove worthy fielder, another injury risk. Kotz has made his name catching the uncatchable, usually with Torii Hunter-style leaps at the outfield fence and never losing balls, even deep in the gap, but he also had back problems for most of '06 and his offensive numbers are slowly starting to decline).
LF Shannon Stewart (acquired from the Twins, he hits for a good average but low power numbers - the last time he cracked in excess of 20 HR was in 2000, for the Blue Jays, where he hit 21. He has some speed and can possibly re-introduce the running game to Oakland).
C Jason Kendall (an absolute iron man who's famous for refusing to take days off, Kendall hit .299 last year, but it's a running joke as to how long it'll be before he hits another homer. He managed to tally one last year, an occasion which set off mass celebrations in A's Nation. However, he's a decent top-of-the order hitter who can be pesky about getting on by slapping singles and stealing bases - he has speed, unusually for a catcher).
DH Mike Piazza (he has some big shoes to fill, literally, after Frank Thomas, 6'5", 275 lb, with 39 HR and 114 RBI, departed for the Blue Jays after they offered him more money. The A's are hoping he can decently replicate his 2006 production, as he's still a good hitter, posting numbers of the tune of a .283 average, 22 HR, and 68 RBI. While they're nowhere near Thomas's numbers, the A's are hoping that a healthy Chavez and Bradley can provide the extra punch. He won't see much action as a catcher, mainly because his defense has degenerated to the point where he caught only 13 of 97 base thieves for an epically lousy 13% success rate, and also because Kendall just won't get out of there).

Best-Case Scenario: Chavez, Crosby, Bradley, and Swisher are all healthy and productive, hitting 20-30 HR apiece and driving in 90-100 runs to accompany it. With that fearsome foursome in the center of the lineup, the A's could finally generate some buzz for having the one thing they've always notably lacked - offense. The supporting cast provides extra perks, even Piazza, who contributes another good season with the bat. The A's established bats overrule the Angels' prospects, and Oakland clinches the West title with breathing room.

Worst-Case Scenario: Nobody stays healthy, and even the valiant few who tough it out, such as Chavez, can't bring much to the table. The A's notoriously doddering offense gets even weaker, unable to support the rotation, and filling Thomas's place proves just too daunting to Piazza, who can't adjust to the AL. With horrid hitting and patchwork pitching, this is a club destined for the doldrums.

The Nonexpert Nostradamus Predicts:

Nick Swisher, S/L, 1B/OF: .275 AVG, 38 HR, 100 RBI, .385 OBP, .500 SLG, .885 OPS
Dan Johnson, R/R, 1B: .261 AVG, 7 HR, 34 RBI, .315 OBP, .360 SLG, .675 OPS, I predict he gets cut around or before the break as he's becoming something of a fifth wheel.
Mark Ellis, R/R, 2B: .267 AVG, 12 HR, 54 RBI, .325 OBP, .300 SLG, .625 OPS
Bobby Crosby, R/R, SS: .265 AVG, 14 HR, 48 RBI, .300 OBP, .340 SLG, .640 OPS
Marco Scutaro, R/R, SS: .268 AVG, 6 HR, 47 RBI, .340 OBP, .380 SLG, .720 OPS
Eric Chavez, L/L, 3B: .270 AVG, 29 HR, 97 RBI, .366 OBP, .450 SLG, .816 OPS
Antonio Perez, R/R, 3B, .201 AVG, 2 HR, 10 RBI, .200 OBP, .215 SLG, .415 OPS
Milton Bradley, S/R, RF: .280 AVG, 20 HR, 86 RBI, .380 OBP, .455 SLG, .835 OPS
Mark Kotsay, L/L, CF: .277 AVG, 16 HR, 70 RBI, .327 OBP, .375 SLG, .702 OPS
Shannon Stewart, R/R, LF: .275 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, .320 OBP, .350 SLG, .670 OPS
Bobby Kielty, S/R, OF: .266 AVG, 6 HR, 27 RBI, .320 OBP, .404 SLG, .724 OPS
Jason Kendall, R/R, C: .287 AVG, 1 HR, 52 RBI, .350 OBP, .335 SLG, .685 OPS
Adam Melhuse, S/R, C: .220 AVG, 3 HR, 18 RBI, .270 OBP, .351 SLG, .621 OPS
Mike Piazza, R/R, DH: .269 AVG, 20 HR, 65 RBI, .340 OBP, .489 SLG, .829 OPS

This just isn't a team of heavy hitters - you'll notice that despite the high HR totals I predicted for several players, I didn't tab a single one to break .300, and the likeliest candidate to do so is scrappy single-punching Jason Kendall, who I also expect to hit (maybe) one HR all year. The A's are famous for not running and disdaining the sacrifice bunt, all part of the highly mythologized and much-copied "Moneyball" style of play for which they're famous, but new skipper Bob Geren says that he may be more inclined to give the A's the green light to steal more often, so perhaps this could translate into more runners advanced on the base paths and more runs scored because of it. The A's are also (in)famous for leaving the "ducks on the pond," and hopefully the runners being moved up can help put them in.

OVERALL PREDICTION

It looks to be another close and tight season in the AL West - whatever else, this race is never boring, and there's never really one team poised to run away with it all. The A's entered the season as the favorites last year, and managed to live up to their billing by capturing their first divisional flag since 2003. I've got them marked for a 90-72 record, three games off the pace from last year, and in a race that's normally so close, I'm not entirely sure if that'll be enough to bump them over the hump. As much as it kills me to make this call, since I hate, hate, HATE the Los Angeles Angels of Whereverville California USA, I may have to slide them in by one game ahead of the A's. The Angels have only two weaknesses. Fortunately for A's fans, these are known as: Offense and Defense. Despite this, however, this A's team is built of china men, and if any injuries wreck an already precarious picture, the green and gold could be in for a long summer. If they're healthy, they'll be in it until the end; if not, this one could be over pretty quickly in Mudville.

The Angels have one of the better starting rotations in baseball, but Bartolo Colon has health problems and patches of atrocity, and it remains to be seen if Jered Weaver can follow up his sterling rookie campaign. They also have as bad of an offense as the A's, although that could change if the LAA prospects begin to hit (and the A's veterans do the same). And while the A's infield is watertight, the Angels have a little trouble with basic things like catching and fielding. Defense could prove to be a late-season key.

The Rangers are primed for a fall - even with new manager, and former A's coach, Ron Washington, their hitters' numbers are artifically inflated by playing at the launching pad known as Ameriquest Field, and their pitching still isn't any better. That lineup, with Blalock, Young, and Teixeira, is still admittedly fairly scary, but as long as the rotation can't hold up their end of the bargain, they're going to be treading water, yet again, in a tight division. They aren't the pushovers that they were a few years ago, but I just don't see them managing to upset both the A's and Angels.

The Mariners had one of the more dismal offseasons in recent memory, and their rotation consists of Felix Hernandez/Jarrod Washburn/Jeff Weaver/Miguel Batista/Horacio Ramirez, none of whom are very awe-inspiring. If Hernandez turns it on and lives up to his promise, he could become a solidifed ace, but his backup corps are a bit... well, perhaps underwhelming would be the word. They have Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, and Raul Ibanez on the offensive half of things, all of whom are capable of providing decent-to-excellent seasons, but have struggled to do so with any consistency during their tenure in Seattle. Aside from the omnipresent, and still very talented, Ichiro Suzuki, the Mariners also have "Princess Willie," (utilityman Willie Bloomquist) a running joke among their fanbase, who is kept around by the management despite displaying baseball skills that could charitably be rated mediocre. He's like the Seattle version of Scutaro, without the clutchness. The Mariners have experienced a meteoric and painful fall from grace since their otherworldly 116-win campaign in 2001, and it just doesn't look as if the pieces are there to turn it around this season. They're still headed by Mike Hargrove and their general manager is still Bill Bavasi.

As you can see, I think that the A's and Angels will be duking it out for first place, and the Rangers and Mariners will be duking it out for the cellar. If the A's manage to unseat the Angels, I will cheerily and happily eat all the crow dished out to me, but I'm too dubious of the team's overall health to make an outright championship call, however much I would like to.

AL WEST
1. Angels, 91-71
2. A's, 90-72
3. Rangers, 75-87
4. Mariners, 74-88

Now that I've wasted a good two hours on writing this preview, I shall head off to read some philosophy. The Rockies preview should come in the next few days.

Preseason Preview: Cardinals

So close, and yet so far... The good news? Pitchers, catchers, and most of the position players have now reported to Spring Training, dispersing out through Arizona and Florida to divide into Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues and to get the ballgame on the road. Or at least... that's the idea. It's still several weeks until ST games start, so I have a while to get back into the habit of worrying about outcomes, as I'm one of those wonky fans who pays attention to every result, including preseason games. I can't help it... I'm so starved for baseball and I so badly want my teams to do well. Since the Cards reached the pinnacle of glory last year, now I want to see the A's do it. If I'm being realistic, I'll admit that there are more qualified (and more likely) teams to take the flag, but hope never dies, eh? I'm not nearly delusioned enough to think that the Rockies will get there, since Clint Hurdle's maxim is to get rid of anyone who is "developed" and by extension good, but hey. If there was a World Series game in Denver, I'd be pissed since I'd be in New York and ergo unable to attend.

This post will preview the Cards. A's next, and then the Rockies. So, in St. Louis, home of your defending WORLD CHAMPIONS, let's take a look at the lay of the land.

The St. Louis Cardinals

PITCHING

Starters

Who's Gone? Jeff Suppan (4 years for the Brewers) Jeff Weaver (1 year for the Mariners) Jason Marquis (3 years for the Cubs). Not that happy about losing Suppan - he was a strong #2 to slot behind Carpenter. Not sure about Weaver, who could have been either the pitcher he was in the '06 postseason or the pitcher he's been for a large part of his career. Thrilled to see Marquis go, especially to the Cubs, where the Cards will have a chance to beat him frequently.

Who's Here? Chris Carpenter, naturally. After that, nothing is certain. Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, and Braden Looper are the leading candidates to fill the other four spots. Yes, you read that right. Braden Looper. See my thoughts on this below.

Things stack up thusly:

- Chris Carpenter (obviously, #1, legit ace, should be in the running for another Cy. Carpenter's signature pitch is his cutter, which breaks low in the zone and is extremely hard to get a fix on, but if he relies on it too much, hitters will start sitting on it, with ugly results. See late September games versus Houston... although in fairness, Fat Elvis Berkman has always hit Carp well. Chris also sports a fastball that can touch 94 mph and he used to have a plus changeup, which he lost after arm surgery and is working to get back this season. He also has a killer big-hook 12-to-6 curve that, when working, is untouchable. As a matter of fact, that's the case with most of his pitches.)
- Kip Wells (most likely, mediocre-to-average Pirates stopgap filler. I don't know much about him, but he's a high-80s velocity type guy who relies more on offspeed stuff and deception rather than overwhelming power).
- Anthony Reyes (likely, has flashes of brilliance and of extreme incompetence, but still could amount to something special. He features a plus two-seam fastball, but hitters tend to feast on it since management is, for some reason, leery about letting him mix it up with his four-seamer).
- Adam Wainwright (my darling baby, etc., etc., is ticketed to make the move from closer to starter. Hurrah. More Adam never goes amiss. Adam's signature pitch is his curve, which he can bury in the zone and locate effectively against both lefties and righties. Carlos Beltran, who he struck out to end the NLCS, is still having nightmares about that dreamy bender that floated right by. Beltran says that even on a good day, with him fully healthy, hitting the ball well, there's no way he'd be able to do anything with that curve... that's how good it is. Adam also uses a splitter and low-nineties fastball to complement the Yellow Hammer).
- Braden Looper (fuck me sideways with a lunchbox, to borrow a colorful saying from one of my friends... Looper is absolutely terrible, hasn't started since 1997 when he was in Single-A, and has maybe three pitches, none of which are good. If a pitcher absolutely has to get an out, there's usually one killer pitch he can turn to - Carp has his cutter, Adam has his curve, and even young bullpen brat Ty Johnson has a wicked slider. Looper, on the other hand, is not good, so it follows that neither are his pitches. I have no idea what Dave Duncan professes to see in Looper, and no idea how a cringe-inducing reliever will make even a suitable fifth starter. I see a decent start, ala Sidney Ponson of last year, followed by such jarring and terrible incompetence that they're forced to remove him with a hook before they sink all the way to the bottom of the NL Central, which admittedly would be hard when you consider that they have the Pirates in their division).

Other possibilities - Mark Mulder, Ryan Franklin, Chris Narveson, Brad Thompson. They really need Marky Mark to come back at full throttle and be the caliber of pitcher that he was for the A's, but who knows if or when that will happen? If Jason Isringhausen isn't ready to go by Opening Day, Adam could also continue in the closer's role until he is. Chris Narveson made one start last year and was serviceable. Ryan Franklin was with the Mariners, is pretty bad, and is best known because not even taking steroids could make him good, which he subsequently got busted for. One Mariners fan friend of mine opines that he probably gets neck strain from turning to watch all the homers he gives up flying out of the park... not a good sign. Brad Thompson is a decent to average reliever and even he is a better choice than Looper. Jeezus Key-rist, I foresee antacid-popping and mass hemorraghes whenever he's on the mound. Maybe the Cards need to bite the bullet and admit that the state of their starting rotation is suspect.

Best-Case Scenario: Carp dominates, wins 20 games and the Cy while posting a sub-3 ERA. Kip Wells is serviceable to decent and wins 12-15 games with a mid-4 ERA. Reyes harnesses his oftentimes-wild stuff and posts 10-15 wins with a high 3-middle-4 ERA. Wainwright makes a smooth transition from closer to starter, wins 15+ games with a high 3 ERA. Looper, after one or two debacles in April, is demoted to mopup guy when a healthy Mulder comes back and wins 15 games for the eventual NL Central Champs.

Worst-Case Scenario: Carp starts off strong, gets injured around the break, and isn't the same pitcher afterwards, registering only 13-16 wins with a mid-4 ERA. Wells proves to be, well, an ex-Pirate and barely manages to win 10, often helped out by a lot of run support, posting an inflated ERA of close to 5. Reyes can't turn off the mercurial switch and vacillates between suck and serviceable, spending too much time at the former and stumbling to 5-7 wins and a mid-season demotion to iron out his mechanics. My sweet Adam can't replicate his postseason heroics and only wins 10 or 12 with a high-4 ERA. The only pitcher who stays in the rotation all season long is Looper, bluffing his way to 10 wins and 16 losses with a 5+ ERA. The Cards are sunk in the NL Central by September and the Cubs win the division, culminating in Jason Marquis beating his old mates in the clinching game. This causes groans, agony, and spontaneous suicide in Redbird nation. This Cards fan hits the Prozac to dull the pain.

Bullpen:

- Jason Isringhausen (aging, with his effectiveness in decline, Izzy enters the spring tagged with a hundred question marks. Can he regain the job that Adam took from him last September? Can he become healthy again, and most importantly, regain the trust of the Busch III fans that booed him while he was in the process of blowing one of his 11 total flubbed saves? Whether or not Adam opens the season in the rotation rests squarely on the shoulders of the good ol' Izzster).
- Tyler Johnson (a talented 25-year-old with a lively fastball and killer slider, he proved to be dominant against lefties last year, but righties beat him like a pinata. Can he find some consistent rhythm so he can be used for multiple batters, instead of only lefties?)
- Brad Thompson (a serviceable reliever who was used once as a starter when Carp was unavailable, all he needs to do is provide a reliable fallback plan in case one of the main bullpen guys goes down).
- Josh Hancock (known as the "fat pitcher" who was cut from Reds camp last year for being 17 pounds overweight, he was picked up by the Cards and subsequently won a ring. Also serviceable, if unproven).
- Josh Kinney (nabbed from the independent leagues, he was quite good in limited action last year, and engendered, surprisingly, a decent amount of trust from me. I would like to see him perform further, but only if good... obviously. ;))
- Russ Springer (returning from the Astros for his second tour of duty with the Cardinals, best known for failing to hit Barry Bonds three times in retaliation for an earlier beaning. Another dime-a-dozen stopgap bullpen guy, lumped in with his fellows as needed only to get the ball to the closer with the lead intact, whoever the closer may be).
- Ricardo Rincon (was excellent at producing ulcers, head-banging, and deep moans when he was on the A's. Unfortunately, I see no change here, especially as he's returning after missing an entire year with injuries).

Best-Case Scenario: Izzy comes back healthy and begins closing games with his old machine-like regularity. Ty Johnson and Josh Kinney flourish as the bullpen brats and become legit set-up guys. Looper is nowhere to be seen.

Worst-Case Scenario: Izzy sucks. A number of experiments to replace him commence, none of which work. The Cards' starters learn that to have any hope of winning a game, they need to take it all the way, and in doing so, blow out their arms, one by one. Looper is the only one exempt from this malady and keeps on pitching.

The Nonexpert Nostradumus Predicts:
(note - pitchers who could both start and relieve are listed for total numbers, not separately)

Starters
Chris Carpenter, RHP, 18-7, 2.95 ERA, 230 IP, 200 K, 33 starts
Kip Wells, RHP, 13-10, 4.30 ERA, 190 IP, 132 K, 31 starts
Anthony Reyes, RHP, 14-9, 3.97 ERA, 190 IP, 170 K, 29 starts
Adam Wainwright, RHP, 16-9, 3.85 ERA, 175 IP, 160 K, 32 starts
Braden Looper, P? (AHAHHAHA) 6-9, 5.56 ERA, 90 IP, 75 K, 13 starts
Mark Mulder, LHP, 7-5, 4.20 ERA, 50 K, 12 starts
Ryan Franklin, RHP, 2-4, 5.75 ERA, 30 K, 7 starts
Chris Narveson, LHP, 1-3, 4.15 ERA, 55 K, 3 starts
Brad Thompson, RHP, 2-2, 4.00 ERA, 20 K, 2 starts

Relievers
Jason Isringhausen, RHP, 3-2, 4.00 ERA, 25 SV/32 SVO
Randy Flores, RHP, 1-2, 5.00 ERA, 1 SV/2 SVO
Tyler Johnson, LHP, 1-3, 4.25 ERA, 2 SV/2 SVO
Russ Springer, RHP, 1-1, 4.35 ERA, 2 SV/2 SVO
Josh Kinney, RHP, 1-1, 3.55 ERA, 1 SV/1 SVO
Josh Hancock, RHP, 1-3, 4.10 ERA, 1 SV/ 3 SVO
Ricardo Rincon, RHP, 0-3, 4.95 ERA, 1 SV/4 SVO


HITTING

Projected Lineup (in positional, not batting, order)

1B Albert Pujols (no worries. Man is a machine)
2B Adam Kennedy (hopefully will benefit from transition to NL and reunition with former/current DP partner Eckstein)
SS David Eckstein (totally overrated, but should provide decent average with a scattering of extra-base hits)
3B Scott Rolen (needs to come back strong from injury and off-year)
RF So Taguchi/John Rodriguez/Juan Encarnacion (none of which are great, but combined can provide a little power to a lower-order spot)
CF Jim Edmonds/Preston Wilson (Edmonds is aging and had a lot of injury problems last year... can he rebound or is he on the way down?)
LF Chris Duncan/So Taguchi/Scott Spiezio (Duncan is atrocious with the glove, but has legit power and could conceivably crack 20+ homers if his defense doesn't undercut his playing time).
C Yadier Molina/Gary Bennett (Molina is a very light hitter, but is kept on the team for his knack for working with pitchers and his cannon of an arm - he threw out a ridiculous percentage of base-stealers last year).

Best-Case Scenario: Pujols resumes his usual monster-mashing ways and hits an insane number of clutch homers to bail out the Cards' bullpen in moments of weakness. Rolen comes on like a machine in his blossoming year, providing almost an equal amount of power from across the diamond. Jimmy Ballgame shows that the injuries were a fluke while providing 20 HR, 80 RBI, and Gold Glove/highlight reel defense. Juan Encarnacion remains where he does most good, on the bench. Chris Duncan learns how to field, gets more playing time, and blasts in excess of 20 HR. Even Molina discovers his bat and contributes 10 HR. Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein provide decent production from traditionally light-hitting positions, with a .275/.285 average, respectively. The Cards' offensive firepower combines with some standout pitching and they win the NL Central handily.

Worst-Case Scenario: Pujols does his thing and a) gets seriously injured (please God no) or b) runs a one-man show since no one can help him out. Rolen continues to underwhelm offensively despite generally solid defense. Poor old Jim just can't recover from being knocked silly last year and provides only a .250 average with 10-15 HR and waning play in the field. Juan Encarnacion gets too much playing time. Yadier Molina hits exactly 1 HR all year, and that in a game where Looper has already allowed 10 runs. All the sneering prognosticators are right about the miserable state of the Cardinals' offense, and they're sunk in the Central by August. The Cubs win the division, culminating with a complete-game shutout by Jason Marquis. Cardinals Nation commits hara-kiri.

The Nonexpert Nostradamus Predicts:

Albert Pujols, R/R, 1B: .335 AVG, 45 HR, 144 RBI, .440 OBP, .680 SLG, 1.120 OPS
Adam Kennedy, L/R, 2B: .270 AVG, 4 HR, 40 RBI, .320 OBP, .380 SLG, .700 OPS
David Eckstein, R/R, SS: .285 AVG, 2 HR, 20 RBI, .340 OBP, .330 SLG, .670 OPS
Scott Rolen, R/R, 3B: .277 AVG, 30 HR, 96 RBI, .370 OBP, .525 SLG, .895 OPS
So Taguchi, R/R, RF/LF: .255 AVG, 4 HR, 30 RBI, .330 OBP, .340 SLG, .670 OPS
John Rodriguez, L/L, RF/LF: .299 AVG, 5 HR, 40 RBI, .380 OBP, .390 SLG, .770 OPS
Juan Encarnacion, R/R, RF: .260 AVG, 17 HR, 67 RBI, .315 OBP, .420 SLG, .735 OPS
Jim Edmonds, L/L, CF: .266 AVG, 21 HR, 85 RBI, .360 OBP, .485 SLG, .845 OPS
Chris Duncan, L/R, RF/LF: .288 AVG, 25 HR, 65 RBI, .375 OBP, .580 SLG, .955 OPS
Yadier Molina, R/R, C: .240 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI, .290 OBP, .325 SLG, .615 OPS
Gary Bennett, R/R, C: .220 AVG, 3 HR, 19 RBI, .270 OBP, .320 SLG, .590 OPS
Preston Wilson, R/R, CF/RF: .260 AVG, 17 HR, 60 RBI, .305 OBP, .477 SLG, .782 OPS
Scott Spiezio, S/R, LF/RF: .270 AVG, 12 HR, 50 RBI, .350 OBP, .470 SLG, .820 OPS

OVERALL PREDICTION
The NL Central will be close all season long, with the Cubs and Astros each overtaking the Cards at one point, but never staying in the catbird seat for long. Even the Brewers will briefly compete, and the Reds will look legit before being proven to be smoke and mirrors with late-season injury woes. The Pirates? The Pirates are run by Dave Littlefield. Pity them. The Cards will win another division title, without an epic late-season collapse this time. This may be a highly biased prediction, but I've done my best to assess the Cards fairly, and I think that they have more than enough talent to do it. It's the question of making it click. I don't get the hoopla about the Cubs. They added a talented but K-prone "outfielder" with extremely suspect defense (Alfonso Soriano) and if they plan on playing him on the outfield in Wrigley, good luck to them. They have Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, who will stay healthy when hell freezes over. And they have Jason Marquis. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! For the Cubs to improve 10 games in '07 (in other words, by quite a lot) they would still only win 76 games, and I do think the Cards are capable of outstripping that. I suppose the question remains as to who is more of a sparkplug: Tony La Russa or Lou Piniella? I also think that the Cards will have a better year than most people give them credit for, and will take the Central crown.

Notice that I'm being nice to the Cubs. I gave them a whole 12 games' worth of improvement. Where they're gonna get that from, I haven't a clue. If it's from Marquis, I'll eat several items of clothing, including but not limited to my hat.

NL CENTRAL
1. Cardinals, 89-73
2. Astros, 86-76
3. Reds, 85-77
4. Cubs, 78-84
5. Brewers, 77-85
6. Pirates, 63-99

The next post will preview the A's, and by extension the AL West. God, I need baseball....

Aliveness Is Good, No Baseball Is Not

Seeing as it has been a month since I brought my terrifying baseball-mad thoughts to the page - er, screen, I thought that now that I'm back at school and spring training starts in a month, I finally had enough material to scare you all again. What to say? Well, after my last frazzled post, the week DID end, I flew home on December 15th, survived a number of minor scares, and enjoyed a full month of time off, reading, watching Lord of the Rings for the first time in two years, and shoveling snow. Whoo BOY, did I shovel a lot of snow. Colorado kindly noticed that New York hadn't gotten any snow and proceeded to oblige me with three blizzards in three weeks, one of which included an accident in front of our driveway (fortunately not involving us) a constant parade of shoveling, and having to rescue a visiting English family who were rather unused to our wacky weather. Not to mention trucking down our steep dirt road with my sister, attempting to tie it off with a rope due to the accident halfway up, with a neon pool toy to catch attention. At dusk. In a blizzard. Yeah.

Aside from that, I thoroughly enjoyed my Christmas break, but I flew back to New York yesterday - another ordeal, starting with my fucking suitcase being eleven pounds over the weight limit and charging me $50, which, as you may imagine, is bad. I'm still stiff as hell today from wrestling my suitcases up the hill to SLC - I flew into LaGuardia, took a bus to Grand Central, and caught the train to Bronxville from there. All public transit, just like a good New Yorker, but I took a car out to the airport directly when leaving and probably will again, just so I don't have to worry about transit time when I'm trying to catch a flight. Also, my three bags combined must weigh a hundred pounds, no exaggeration, and dragging them up the hill to SLC was sort of a pain. Actually, a literal pain, but what hey.

Still, I'm happy to be back. Bronxville really feels familiar and comfortable, and the first thing I said, upon stepping off the train into a cool and misty night, was, "OH, it's so nice to be home." After a long and frustrating day of traveling - my flight was delayed because of MORE snow in Denver and sat on the runway for over an hour getting de-iced - it was marvelous to get back to a place where I'm so happy. I fell into my new/old bed just past midnight (very early for me; I was exhausted) and slept like a rock.

Today, I bought my books for spring term and ran errands in Bronxville, buying toothpaste and shampoo and boring stuff like that. On the way back to campus, slugging a Frappuccino (I have a terrible coffee habit) I realized I was incredibly, deeply happy, and this is a good thing for me. I settled back into my old haunts like I'd never been gone, and I'm ready to think and work again - I'm eagerly anticipating my classes and have already figured out my conference projects for both Philosophy and Writing. I am... a nerd. A full-fledged one.

On the subject of writing, I wrote a very weird, but passably good, short story upon reading Paul Auster's Travels in the Scriptorium. My family, who can sometimes be critics - they don't necessarily think EVERYTHING I write is genius, and are usually right - thought it was extremely good, instead of passably, and talked me into submitting it to the New Yorker. I honestly don't think anything will come of it, and I'll probably add another rejection letter to my growing catalogue, but man, it would be a real feather in the cap, wouldn't it? It would be the most painless moneymaker in my life, and to finance my amazing spring break 2009 trip in Scotland, I'm going to need as much of the green stuff as possible.

Yeah, about that... While I was home, my parents dug out their slides from their 1985 trip to Scotland, and it. Is. So. Beautiful. I'm doing my junior year abroad in Oxford (another thing for which I can't wait) and during the six-week March break in between the Hilary and Trinity terms (Hilary term?! It's a sign, I tell you, a SIGN!) I'm going to Scotland. My family is Scots/English, my great-great grandfather was the steward of Traquair House (the longest inhabited house in Scotland) and I've always loved the country. I'm going to Iona (subject of my history conference project) Mull, the Orkneys, the Hebrides, Glasgow, Edinburgh, and the Isle of Lewis. The last one is important because there's a B&B on it called Ceol-na-Mara, where my parents stayed in 1985, and they loved the proprietors. Due to the miracle of the Internet, we discovered that the place is still operating, and it would be an absolute kick to stay with the same people that the 'rents did - the owners, Les and Sally McDonald, are apparently some of the nicest people in the world. It would be sweet to show up with their old business card and a photo that my dad took of them, and go, "Remember these people? Well, I'm their kid."

But that's a little far in the future, and for the summer, I'm looking at something which will undoubtedly not surprise anyone - I want to get a job at Coors Field. I will honestly do whatever they want, whether it's mopping floors or (wo)manning booths, and that would also be a dream moneymaker. I mean, spending the entire summer at the baseball stadium, being there whenever the Rockies are, and watching games in person - and getting paid to do so, rather than paying? SWEET! The only problem I may encounter is not cheering, being professional, whatnot. Even if I don't get a job there, my sister and I are going to the 4-game Cardinals series in late May. We love the Redbirds, as you well know, and shall be there to cheer for them. In all else, we shall support the Rockies.

Also, speaking of which, when I was home, my dad dug out all the imaginary letters that my sisters and I wrote to baseball players when we were kids. He pretended to be the players that we wrote to, and answered our letters, which we always thought was cool even if we knew it was the man behind the curtain instead of the real thing. I was reading them - surprised to discover that I'd spelled everything correctly even if writing in large letters with purple marker - and just had to laugh, because if nothing else, it shows that baseball fanaticism is a long-threaded obsession in this family. I come by it honestly.

Well, nothing else to say for now. As baseball season gets nearer, naturally, the blog shall see more updating.

I Do Not Know What Day It Is

This week needs to end. The sooner the better, for my mental health. The most depressing part? It's early Monday afternoon and I am already frazzled. For example, my first class on Monday is at 3:30, but my first class on Tuesday and Wednesday is at 11 AM. So my neurons got scrambled, I woke up at 10:58, and panicked. "Oh shit oh SHIT I didn't set my alarm I didn't read the stories oh shit oh shit..." and got halfway dressed before realizing that it was, in fact, Monday, and I had no need to get up if I didn't want to. Feeling quite foolish, I sallied back to bed and had weird dreams for an hour or two before getting up again.

Sold my books, which cost me close to $200, for a piddling $15. Whoo, what overwhelming money. Did buy some new headphones, though, as my regular ones broke and my backups have tinny sound. Then I forgot to send a graphics file to my employer (College Events, so you can bet that I'm supposed to) and when I DID try, my computer refused to attach the file. So I may have to run down there with a flash drive before giving my end-of-term report in history class about my conference work. At this rate, I'm going to get up there and stare vacantly at my classmates while gesticulating wildly and mumbling to unheard voices, before somebody kindly takes over the blackboard as an act of charity. I think it's a good thing that I have no more reading left for that class, although I actually must attempt to read two stories tonight and write one...bloody... more assignment...

Naturally, I have cuts on my legs and unexplained bruises on my arms, but I swear to God I'm not hurting myself on purpose. Maybe my body is just...reacting...

I've finished my history and writing projects, and I think my editing is done on the philosophy project. I wrote my history worksheet and need to edit my writing one, but I am almost frickin' done with my work. God, I want to go home and just sleep for about a week, and definitely not think about anything. I love my college, but damn, I am drained as hell right now.

Four...more...days....

Andy Pettitte Appreciation Post

(a.k.a. APAP)

Let's clarify a few things here.

a) I used to love the Yankees, and I really do mean love them.

b) I stopped doing so. I can pinpoint this on two things:

c) the acquisition of Me-Rod

d) the 2004 ALCS collapse

Also, I broke down and sobbed like a frickin' baby when my sister, looking very grim, said, "Hilary." [long pause] "Andy signed with the Astros."

And while I am not a Yankees fan any more - in fact, I believe they personify a lot of baseball's current problems - I have a soft spot for a few of them. Jorge Posada, since I watched him play from dugout seats in the minor leagues, where my love affair with baseball began. Mike Mussina, because, well, he's never been a douche in my estimation. Mo Rivera, because he's Mo, and how can you argue with that?

But I have to give a shout-out to the man who has been my favorite (or close to it) for eleven years. That's right, eleven frickin' years. That's the longest I have ever been in love with a human being, folks, so let's give it up for Andrew Eugene Pettitte.

This is one Yankee that I will never hate.



And yes, those have been saved on my computer since Andy was last a Yankee.

Hey hey, Andy, you're awesome. I won't hear anything else. Cheers, man!

EDIT: Almost forgot what may be the most beautiful picture of a baseball player. Ever. I tried to draw this picture once, and it turned out... all right.

[SWOON]

Evidence of My Non-Deadness

Evidently, I am not the world's most fastidious blogger when the baseball season is not in session and therefore I see no need to bore my extremely limited audience with the mundane details of my life. But in case anybody... at all... was wondering, as a matter of fact, I am still alive and kicking. But I have been swamped with end-of-term work, including a 27-page philosophy paper, a 30-page history paper, a 140-page writing project, and compilation worksheets for two of those classes, all of which we do in lieu of ordinary final exams at SLC. I prefer it this way, being a wordophile, but it does leave quite a bit less time for doing things like sleeping, free time, and staring blankly into space. If anyone is interested, I'll post the final .pdfs of the projects later.

Let's see... I went to the Cloisters branch of the Metropolitan Museum of Art with my history class today, which was very interesting, and most importantly: I go home in a week. I have found myself absolutely salivating, counting the hours, totally ready to go home and do nothing, although my passion for this does not equal my passion to get out in the first place. At this time next week (4:30 MT, 6:30 ET) I'll be on board a Boeing about an hour outside of Denver, and I am so ready to just let my frazzled brain unwind without constantly mentally charting my assignments, due dates, and needed edits...

My family is waiting to put up the tree until I get home, which is nice, but if they really wanted to, I don't care if they do it without me. I'm done with my Christmas shopping, mostly, and I think that I got some fairly nice gifts. What I seem to be spending the most money on is iTunes... suffice it to say that my music library has greatly expanded since I first arrived. But since I haven't been home since August, I am ready to go. One more week. Meergh... I won't survive. And then I'll have to get someone to post "Evidence of my Deadness."

On the baseball front, the Cardinals (thank God!) shot down any rumors of their interest in Bighead Bonds, who then re-signed with the Giants, to nobody's surprise. That's one worrisome rumor out of the way - I've heard scary (but probably unsubstantiated) rumors of my favorites, like Brad Hawpe and Danny Haren, possibly changing teams. This would most likely not kill me, but it would make me very upset.

The Cardinals need some rotational upgrades - they signed Carp to a five-year extension that will keep him sporting the Birds on the Bat through 2011 at an extra $50 million (or thereabouts; they already had some money invested in him for next season) which is a bargain for a pitcher of Carp's caliber. However, the rest of the starters are not similarly arranged. After Carp comes Anthony Reyes, talented but unpredictable, followed by Kip Wells, a suspect Pirates reclamation project, followed by.... ? There are two gaping holes in the rotation, and the Cards missed out on Jason Schmidt to the Dodgers.

Two theories have been put about - one is that the Cards try to fill the spaces with people within the organization - which would likely portend a move to the rotation for postseason hero and my dearly beloved Adam Wainwright. (Dear God, do not let LaRussa have been serious when he mentioned Braden Looper, the definition of mediocrity edging into frightening badness, making a move to the starting five. The man has one pitch, possibly two, hasn't started since making 10 appearances in A ball in 1997, and has an unfortunate tendency to turn into a pinata if he lets runners on, which he does frequently.).

The other is that the Cards try to sign Miguel Batista, who isn't that great, but he's about the only option left on the market that is not named Barry Zito. None of these scenarios have me that enthused. Then again, the Cards' rotation won the World Series last year with Carpenter, Suppan, a lot of smoke and mirrors, and occasional guest appearances by Jeff Weaver in the postseason, so what do I know? Still, the fact remains that my darling Redbirds won exactly 83 games in the regular season last year, an underwhelming total, and, let's face it, put together a magical run at exactly the right moment to carry them to the trophy. Now just imagine if they'd played like that all season... but their two previous years, 'o4 and '05, in which they hit the centennial-win mark both times, didn't deliver the hardware. I'll take the trophy any day, and I'm wearing my World Champs shirt right now. I wear it a lot. I discovered the other day that the majority of my shirts happen to be Cardinal-themed.

As for the other piece of news, my first and long-term favorite, Andy Pettitte, went back to the Yankees after playing out a three-year contract with the Astros. I'll admit it, I used to be a Yankees fan, but I have a good reason - I lived for four years in Columbus, Ohio, when I was young and watched their minor league team, the Columbus Clippers, including current catcher Jorge Posada. And I also discovered that the Clippers are no longer the AAA affiliate for the Yanks - they're for the Nationals. I feel betrayed.

But anyway, I have loved Andy for as long as I've known about baseball, no joke. If I was seven when I first discovered baseball - that would be 1995, we missed seeing Andy and Derek Jeter in the minors by one year - then I discovered him as soon as I looked into the MLB club that the Clippers, my first baseball loves, were affiliated with. (I can still sing your their rally jingle. Heavily paraphrased, it ran something like, "Guess which team is number one? They're the Columbus Clippers and they'll keep on playing till they've won -we’ll stand up and we’ll tell, Columbus Clippers, ring your bell.”) At which point everybody would clang the Clipper-themed cowbells which they gave away. This happened a lot. I have a lot of fond memories of my minor league baseball days. Ask me sometimes.

But, well, yeah. Andy. Since I have loved the man for 11 years, cried like a baby when he left the Yankees for the Astros, have a picture and a street sign (“46 Andy Pettitte Avenue") above my bed, and an Andy bobblehead… let’s just say I can’t root against him. For Christ's sake, when I was still playing Barbies with my sister, Andy was one of the recurring characters in our invented town. It would be amazing to get tickets for his first start back at the Stadium – the Bronx faithful still love him, and then I could happily boo A-Rod for the rest of the game.

As a final note, does anybody think the amount of money being thrown at mediocrity is out of control? Gil Freakin' Meche, who has a career record of 55-44, got $55 million over five years from the Kansas City Freakin' Royals. Match made in heaven, and you can definitely tell that that was a deal made all about the money, as the Royals have less chance of competing for a pennant than I do of turning their signature blue color. Ted Lilly got $40 million over 4 years from the Cubs, and of course, the new albatross contract was also doled out by the North Siders - $136 m. over 8 years for Alfonso Soriano. Just because the market is thin doesn't mean that GMs need to go absolutely berserk over the uninspiring talent. Must be nice to be rich (said the college student bitterly).

I think I need to a) take out the trash, b) use the bathroom, and c) edit my writing project now, so it’s time to wrap this up. Naturally, it ended up being longer than I expected, but at least no, I am not dead. Check back at the end of this week, as it may be a different story then.

(After fourth or fifth attempt to publish this: Blogger, what the fuck characters aren't allowed?)

Am I Pissed? Yeah, I'm Pissed

.... Nice going, Billy Beane. After letting fan favorite and unanimous choice-for-manager, third base coach Ron Washington, slip to a division rival, he either puts up the world's most lackluster pursuit of Frank Thomas or had already decided to let him walk. Either that or the Big Hurt, despite all his words about loving Oakland and wanting to come back however possible, is just like the rest of the greedy money-sniffers that constitute the participants in professional sports. Either way, the result is the same. He signed a two-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays and booked out of Oakland after only one season. Adios, cleanup hitter, 39 HR/114 RBI. Adios, ace (Zito; 16 wins, 3.83 ERA).

Beane does this every offseason before pulling some crazy scheme out of his ass to save the ship, so as an A's fan I should be used to this, but it never ceases to feel like a gut punch. I was devastated when Hudson and Mulder went, and that worked out, but at the time, man, was I upset. The A's lost a popular coach, an ace, a cleanup hitter, a home, and a manager, and what have they gained? Bench coach Bob Geren, to nobody's surprise, is the latest dull white guy to be named skipper. Also, they get to have a name as ridiculous as that belonging to their SoCal rival, the LAAAAA, which I will continue to call them until I'd be a hypocrite if I did. If we're the Oakland A's of Fremont (''of Fremont" has to be included, but I'll kill myself if it's the Silicon Valley A's of Fremont) the acronym is the OAFs. Wheeeee. What exemplary civic planning.

The idea behind the stadium is that the A's will finally make enough money to retain their high-profile players, instead of letting the rest of MLB pick and choose as they like. It had better work out... oh yeah, and to put the bitter cherry on a really, really frustrating offseason sundae, they're seriously considering signing Barry "Steroid Head" Bonds to fill the vacancy left by Thomas.

I'll take all this moving/renaming/losing crap, but I can't root for Bonds in the green and gold. I just can't. He's a liar and a cheater and a despicable human being, unlike A-Rod, whose only crimes are excessive egomanism and lack of good sense and/or "clutch" hitting. Bonds really is a grade-A asshole. And it's one of the cases when the name on the front of the uniform would not take precedence over the one on the back.

We've already made ourselves laughingstocks for the LAAAA fans, who you can bet will be giving back every drop of grief they received from A's Nation over their name; why not make ourselves universally unpopular and sign the most hated player in MLB? Go for the full monty. Get booed relentlessly on the road and be sniggered at as the team dumb enough to take on Bonds' traveling circus and chemically enhanced skills. You go right ahead and do that, A's management, but remember, you exist in a different stratosphere from the fans, who pay for merchandise and ticketing and keep fattening your pockets, which are still apparently too small to shell out enough to keep Frank Thomas in Oakland.

As a totally unrelated note, Danny Haren is getting married today. Congrats, boy. Let's see if it'll work out for you. Long-distance relationships can be hard.

One very bitter A's fan signing out.

Sometimes I Dislike Baseball

... I know, hard to believe. But bear with me. I have a bitching session to execute.

As much as I adore the sport itself, and will always do so come hell and high water, the business/managerial/capitalist aspects sometimes leave me cold. (Wow, don't I sound like your typical SLC liberal raver here. I suppose I am, to some extent, but only because I voted for the first time in my life yesterday and punched a straight Democratic ticket, with lovely results. Adios, GOP. I think it's awesome that a woman is Speaker of the House. But yes, we're getting distracted).

I know that baseball is a business, but all this wheeling and dealing and glossy commercialism is like a pill coated in sugar - tastes and looks sweet, but leaves a bad taste in your mouth afterwards. The A's are the latest team to give into the lure of a new stadium (although the Coliseum is admittedly a granite bowl in a lousy section of Oakland that the Raiders chop to pieces every fall, it does have its history) and have reached a deal with managing partners to move the team 20 miles down the road to Fremont.

The move probably won't take effect for 3 or 4 years while they build a new ballpark (reportedly "Cisco Field," heeurgh) and they haven't decided whether or not to change the team's name. "Fremont A's of Oakland" or any such permutation is craziness; there's no way they should give them the same cumbrous moniker as is bestowed upon the LAAAAAA. "Fremont A's" is okay, if they absolutely must, but I want them to keep "Oakland" and "Silicon Valley A's" makes me want to blow chunks. :( I swear, I am not buying a single scrap of A's merchandise if it has either of those two names on it. I'm an Oakland girl, thank you very much.

I'm a little depressed with the A's management this offseason - letting popular third-base coach Ron Washington sign with the Rangers as their new manager, when I thought (and certainly hoped) that he was ticketed for the same vacancy in the A's organization. Now this... must see how this will play out, and not even a token effort to keep Barry Zito... his agent is Scott Boras, so there's no way they could actually have re-signed him, but maybe something besides a meek "Bye, Barry, go get a nice paycheck?"

Just, dear God, don't let them hire another boring, insipid white guy. I really wish that they'd hired Wash, who was after all within their own organization, before letting him slide. I don't know what Wolff has on the table, but I must hope that it is good for the OAKLAND A's and their signature green and gold colors, along with Stomper, their mascot. There's no way I can ever stop loving them, honestly, but I have to admit that I'm a little disillusioned with the uppity-ups now. Probably happens to every baseball fan, and at least I haven't been screwed over as badly as fans of some other organizations have been.

Hopefully Beane, Wolff, et al do something really good to make up for all this. :) Go A's! (wherever they may play) and Cards (your World Champions, baby!)

As The Dust Settles

... my life returns to daily, normal, college-kid routine; i.e. not waking up before noon if not strictly necessary for a class. But I'm not bitching too much, because I just had a truly awesome weekend with my family, who flew all the way out from Colorado to take advantage of SLC Family Weekend, coincidentally enough. We met up on Friday afternoon, moved my little sister into the dorms, hung out, ate dinner, explored Bronxville, got coffee, went to the library and all my other haunts, and on Sunday, took the train into the BIG APPLE. It was the second time I'd been to the city, and the first time I was there while it was actually a) light out, and b) not raining.

We had a fantastic time. From Grand Central Station we walked to the NYC Public Library, went up between the lions, then walked down Fifth Avenue with the eventual destination of the Museum of Modern Art halfway in mind. We stopped and looked at all the extremely pricey shops, and my frugal Scottish sensibilities were bombarded and overloaded in Saks Fifth Avenue. People pay $1500 for a handbag? As in, half of my bank account? As in, it wasn't even that great a handbag? Welcome to the lifestyles of the rich and famous. For a girl who's grown up on thrift-store clothes - not because she has to, but because her mom is also cheap - it was quite a shock. I think it speaks volumes about me that I was short-circuiting, and not in a good way, in Saks, and then I saw a guy with an MLB Official Clubhouse Shop bag and went, "OOOH, where did he get that?!"

We also saw St. Patrick's Cathedral, more Fifth Avenue, made a brief stop at MoMA, fortified ourselves with a Starbucks, and then went to Central Park, which was very pretty, just as the last remnants of the NY Marathon were hauling ass through. We walked down by the Zoo, then back up onto Fifth Avenue, made a stop at American Girl Place on the way back, and then eventually got back to Grand Central and were surprised to learn that there was a train leaving for Bronxville in three minutes, so we eschewed the planned bathroom stop and rode back home (well, at least home for me). We ate at a Mexican place called Blue Moon Cafe, and then my sister and I got to spend one last night talking.

We told three straight nights of great stories without having to write them, and now that's my task. We've gotten so used to writing our stories down, and archiving them in a file on my computer, that we can't have a gap in the chronology now. And they're so good that I definitely want them preserved so I can re-read them. I'm doing my best to recreate them, but we tell a lot - I'm only 3/4 of the way through the first day, and have two more long editions to go. I should do some homework, but I don't have that much and can take care of the pertinent business this evening before class tomorrow.

I saw them off this morning, got a little teary, but I'm okay now. I'll next see them at Christmas, which will be nice for a number of reasons, namingly that I won't have to sweat over homework. I've started my writing conference project, but need to get cracking on the actual papers for philosophy and history. I have a detailed outline for phil. and a sketchy one for hist., so I need to flesh those out and get my rear in gear.

That's all for now.

The Content Must Change

So I was thinking about starting a second blog, so I could keep the baseball and ordinary stuff separate, but then I realized that I am a loser and do not have much of a life aside from my constant obsessions over baseball. So, I guess it has to stay the same, or otherwise I'd fall into that typical diary trap: "This morning I woke up before my alarm and did not want to get up, as usual," lose interest, and eventually drift out of the blogosphere, which may not be a great loss seeing as it has no idea that I exist. To some part and purpose, this is all right with me, because I'm one of those sensitive types that worry about what people are thinking of them and if they're secretly thinking, "Good grief that person is so DULL!" So, yeah. If you've found your way here, feel free to stick around. If you haven't, then I want your powers, so I can also read random content out on the 'Net without actually having it on my screen. Rapid informational osmosis and overload.

Well. Now that baseball season is over (SOB! SOB!) the only thing I can post about in regards to it is periodic updates on hot stove wheeling and dealing and which free agents end up with which new teams. There's a good class this year, including some of my favorites, and it'll be interesting to see which ones end up with a change of address.

Otherwise I may (horrors!) have to start writing about my ordinary life, which is far from fascinating. Or I could use the time that I spend online (which is an ungodly amount) to actually do some conference work. I have three big-time papers due at the end of semester, and although that isn't here yet, I definitely need to up the ante. I started working on my fiction project, because that's something that I can do for fun and doesn't feel like homework. Speaking of homework, I should be reading a chapter now before class at 3:30, but I've got time. I'm such a lazy ass.

When I get all my conference projects finished, glory be the day, I'll post .PDFs of them here, if you're really interested in learning about what I was studying all semester. They'll be a history paper about the island of Iona, a philosophy paper about the ontological proof and its dissenters, and a fiction work consisting of four novellas. Read if thou desirest.

My sister and parents are going to be here on Friday through Sunday for SLC's Family Weekend. We're going to rendezvous and go out to dinner on Friday, I'll take them to my new hometown Bronxville on Saturday, and we're going to take the train into the city and go to the Museum of Modern Art and the NYC Public Library on Sunday. To say that I am excited would be to understate it massively.

My sister is going to be sleeping in my dorm and I haven't seen her for 10 weeks, which is 8 weeks longer than we've ever been apart before. I know that she's chomping at the bit to see me and my parents just want to know where I am and how I've situated myself in my new life away from home. Wow. Feels weird to think that, but after all, I am at college and no longer living with them except for a month at winter break and three months over the summer.

Speaking of which, next summer is going to rock so much. Harry Potter book #7, movie #5, Pirates of the Caribbean #3, and baseball, baseball, baseball. Gaah. Must keep focus. Surprisingly enough, I am actually eager to get home and work, if only because money is a highly desired commodity for a college student with a coffee addiction and susceptible to purchasing assorted celebratory T-shirts for her beloved Cardinals online, not to mention a new iPod for the one that broke, and an iPod for her sister's that broke, and assorted other things... yeah. I didn't exactly think that my boss at the coffee shop where I used to and probably will work again was wonderful - he kinda pissed me off on certain occasions - but I will gladly put up with him over break for $8 an hour.

Nothing else to say for the moment. <3 days until I see my sister/mom/dad. EEEEE...!