Around the Horn: Relievers

As always, I'm behind. But since I'm home in Colorado and on spring break, with a week to burn before my sister gets off on her break and we can then have fun, I figured I might as well turn my attention to finishing the Rockies' previews. Naturally, I would have more time if I kept to a schedule, but since I don't, and write when the mood strikes me, there you go. But it's time to take a look at the Depths of Possible Doom known as the Rockies' 2008 pen. Closer Manny Corpas got re-signed for four years, Human Blowtorch Brian Fuentes is still around due to O'Dowd's puzzling refusal to even consider trading him, and the club brought in Luis Vizcaino from the Yankees to take over LaTroy Hawkins' spot (Hawkins, ironically enough, went to the Yankees, so they basically just switched suspect seventh/eighth-inning guys). The beartrap-in-waiting is Mark Redman, Kip Wells, and Josh Towers, all of whom are bad and all of whom may end up in the bullpen, or worse the rotation, there to firebomb games on a regular basis. This is always a dicey subject. Let's examine.

Projected:
RH/CL Manny Corpas
RH/SO Luis Vizcaino
LH/SO Brian Fuentes
RH/LR Taylor Buchholz
RH Matt Herges
RH Ramon Ramirez (or RH Ryan Speier)
LH Micah Bowie

#60, R/R Manny Corpas: Last year at this time, Corpas was a valuable but untested commodity, a fireballing young Panamanian righty who was expected to compete for a slot, but definitely not assured of anything. Fast-forward a season later, and he's the Rockies' unquestioned, postseason-hardened closer with a new four-year contract under his belt and ready to improve on what was a sensational showing in his first year of big-league duty: a 4-2 record, a 2.08 ERA (lowest ever in a full season for a Rockies reliever) 19 saves in 22 opportunities, and 58 strikeouts. Corpas came out of nowhere to take over the closer job when Fuentes (and my mental health) went to hell in June, and he stuck. His five postseason saves tied countryman Mariano Rivera for the single-season record, and if the Rockies had won just once in the World Series (oy) he would have broken it. Manny throws in the high nineties with a nasty slider, and is working on adding a changeup, but when you can throw that hard, you can stick to what works and still be a very effective and underrated closer. I trust him much more than I ever did Fuentes, and I expect higher things from him this year. With a full year in the closer's role, and a re-energized team that's going to be giving him plenty of opportunities, Manny should thrive.

(Interlude while I get totally distracted by Rockies songs I discover and download. New theme song: "Rocktober" by Thomas Tha Franchise. I'm all over it. Click that link, click "Save Page As" to get the MP3 file, and you will have it on repeat such as I do, augmenting my "Rockies" playlist).

2007 Line: 4-2 W/L, 2.08 ERA, 78 G, 19 SV, 22 SVO, 20 BB, 58 K
2008 Proj.: 4-1 W/L, 2.25 ERA, 82 G, 30 SV, 33 SVO, 24 BB, 69 K
INC/DEC/LEV: INC

#51 R/R Luis Vizcaino: Brought in from the AL, he returns to the NL, where he had his most successful season (2006 with the Diamondbacks). He'll see plenty of Arizona this year from the other side of the ball, and hopefully Hurdle doesn't use him as much as Torre did when he was with the Yankees. Vizcaino ended up with an 8-2 record, a 4.30 ERA, and 62 strikeouts while seeing action in 77 games and 75.1 IP. He hasn't impressed thus far this spring, and injury issues have been complicating the picture, which of course could be a result of all the work he's seen. He and LaTroy Hawkins have traded places and teams, and while Vizcaino is supposed to do his best work with runners on, I just figure he'll be Hawkins Redux -- which is to say, effective if used in the seventh inning or so, definitely no later, and DEAR GOD NOT AS an interim closer. Two years, $7.5 million is a little steep for a guy who's essentially a clone of the guy he was replacing (Hawkins was evidently surprised, with good reason, to hear that they wouldn't up him a couple hundred grand from his $3.25 million club option, but then would shell out twice that for the same part). The problem is, the Rockies are already envisioning using Vizcaino in the high-leverage, late-innings role, and that might be a problem if he shows anything like what he has thus far. Spring stats may be total bollox, but then again, they have to come from the player's own ability. I got to the point of warily trusting Hawkins if he came in for the seventh, figured he'd give up a walk or a hit, but would probably get out of it. If I can get to that same place with The Wiz of Viz, I'll be cool with that. Vizcaino was awful at Yankee Stadium (5.94 ERA) but good on the road (2.77). Of course, humidor or no humidor, Coors remains a hitter-friendly park, so he's definitely going to have to sharpen his jam-escaping skills. He walks too many (43) in comparison to strikeouts (62) which means that he will likely have to Houdini his way out of messes of his own making. Oy.

2007 Line: 8-2 W/L, 4.30 ERA, 77 G, 0 SV/3 SVO , 43 BB, 62 K
2008 Proj.: 3-4 W/L, 4.45 ERA, 70 G, 0 SV/2 SVO, 39 BB, 57 K
INC/DEC/LEV: DEC.

#40, L/L Brian Fuentes: If you read this blog last year, especially last June, you will know what kind of heavenly wrath I was calling down on Fuentes after the Road Trip That Shall Not Be Named, an agonizing 1-9 swing through Toronto, Chicago, and Houston on which the Rockies would have gone a perfectly decent 5-5.... were it not for Fuentes turning into a really awful pitcher at a really awful time for it. The patterns were eerie. In each of the games -- each of the games -- Tulo hit a late go-ahead homer, Fuentes would come in, and look like he was going to nail it down. But whether it was one out and nobody on, two outs and nobody on, he would then proceed to send it all to hell in rapid fashion. His most impressive performance was in Houston, when, with two outs and nobody on... he managed to give up a game-winning GRAND SLAM. I just about sold my soul to the Devil, fell on my knees to give thanks when the eight-game losing streak was broken by Francis, and got the "Baseball isn't everything, you know..." talk from my sister. I was in a terrible funk -- breaking things, being horribly depressed, losing my will to live, etc. (I think this was the third time, and I unwisely assumed it would hurt less the next time... nope, hurt more). In any case, that episode led to them "discovering" Fuentes was injured and summarily relieving him of the closer's role; ironically, he went to the All-Star Game the next week.

Proponents of Fuentes like to point out that he has been to the Midsummer Classic three times, but I do not necessarily think that means a whole lot. I am also afraid it may have shot my trust in Fuentes for good, especially after he single-handedly erased any chance of a Rockies comeback in Games 3 and 4 of the World Series. Like Clint Barmes, this is another player that O'Dowd perplexedly refuses to hear trade offers for; hopefully Fuentes can have a good first half and then be flipped for a high-upside prospect arm. Brian is just incubating the hot seat until 22-year-old Casey Weathers, the Rockies' top draft pick in 2007, is ready for the Show (he's likely to start the year at Double-A Tulsa, since his showing in Spring Training proved he's got a ways to go yet). He's still a sidewinding lefty reliever, which in itself means he has trade value, and the Tigers, Yankees, and Phillies have all inquired about him recently. I'll accept Fuentes, of course, and pray that he does well since I know how agonizing it is when he doesn't, but sooner rather than later, he should be thanked for his good service to the team and given his walking papers. Hopefully Weathers will be pressing him by the end of this season or the start of '09.

2007 Line: 3-5 W/L, 3.08 ERA, 64 G, 20 SV/27 SVO, 23 BB, 56 K
2008 Proj.: 2-3 W/L, 3.34 ERA, 60 G, 2 SV/4 SVO, 25 BB, 49 K
INC/DEC/LEV: DEC.

#35, R/R Taylor Buchholz: Bucky, as he's known, is a shamefully underrated and underused part of the Colorado bullpen. He was acquired with Jason Hirsh and Willy Taveras in the Jason Jennings trade (still highway robbery on our part) and was originally tabbed to be a starter, but struggled in that role and was moved to the bullpen for the first time in his pro career. He found an instant home there; he had gone 1-3/5.98 as a starter, but went 5-2/2.70 as a reliever and declared himself perfectly content with his new role. He has a sub-3 ERA this spring and has always been a reliever that I trust implicitly ... when he got to play, which wasn't a whole lot last season. However, the brain trust seems to have finally seen the light, and will be giving Bucky more innings this season, something which I am perfectly fine with. He uses a fastball and curve, mixing in the occasional changeup and slider, but having only two main pitches probably hurt him as a starter. Quiet, soft-spoken, and intelligent, Bucky always seems to be the forgotten man (a running joke in my house last season involved him and Chris Iannetta being locked in a bathroom due to their lack of playing time) but if he keeps pitching this way, he won't be any longer. With both Hirsh and Willy T suffering injuries (Hirsh has a rotator cuff problem that will keep him out of the opening of the regular season, and Willy T played in only 97 games last year) Bucky has emerged as the most stable of the trio, even though Hirsh was the Astros' top pitching prospect and the key to the deal. Bucky allowed only 8 HR in 93.1 IP, showing that he can control the fly-ball tendencies that will burn any overly generous pitcher in Coors. But Bucky did better at home (4.03) than on the road (4.41) which is something you expect of Rockies hitters, not of their pitchers. He figures to serve as the long man this season, which means he'll probably get a lot of work until Redman/Towers/Wells get the heck off my team.

2007 Line: 6-5 W/L, 4.23 ERA, 41 G, 0 SV/0 SVO, 20 BB, 61 K
2008 Proj.: 5-1 W/L, 3.89 ERA, 57 G, 1 SV/1 SVO, 29 BB, 67 K
INC/DEC/LEV: INC.

#34 L/R Matt Herges: Herges enjoyed something of a Well of Youth resurgence last year, going 5-1/2.96 -- presumably without PED's, as he was busted a big one in the chops with the release of the Mitchell Report, but swore he was clean in '07. Since he is 38 and has a career 3.82 ERA, I wouldn't be expecting him to duplicate that performance this year, especially since he got lucky with a lot of that. Still, he did provide a steadying presence out of the pen, allowing 4 HR in 48.1 IP and turning in some stellar performances in key games down the stretch. However, I'd look for him to be noticeably more wobbly this year, just because it evens out and he's an aging reliever off the juice. He was tough on righties (.184 BAA) and still hard to hit against lefties (.216 BAA) but the Rockies might have to look for a stretch of time without him, as it all depends if the toad in the Commish's office gets off his duff and hands out punishments for those fingered in the George Mitchell Power Hour Mudslinging Cabaret. Herges has apologized, naturally, and regrets setting a bad example, so I doubt he's going to make the mistake of going back to it. I wish I could trust him to do as well again as he did in 2007, but that was a magical year in a lot of ways and it remains to be seen for the team as a whole if they can keep the dance going and the pixie dust flowing. Last year was their proof that they can, in fact, be a winning club; the challenge in 2008 will be to demonstrate that they can do it on a consistent basis, as they were driving the car crazily and sometimes were dogging along and sometimes were laying on the gas. Herges, like everyone else and more so than others, will have to just keep the Rockcar purring on steadily down I-25, dodging the traffic of the rest of the West. If he can put together a season even remotely close to the last one, he'll be their hidden weapon. If not, he'll probably land on the Giants by the end of the year.

2007 Line: 5-1 W/L, 2.96 ERA, 35 G, 0 SV/2 SVO, 15 BB, 30 K
2008 Proj.: 3-2 W/L, 3.57 ERA, 40 G, 1 SV/3 SVO, 17 BB, 35 K
INC/DEC/LEV: DEC.

#61 R/R Ramon Ramirez: Ramirez is a bit of a wild card at this point. He was solid in 2006 (if my internet would stop being slower than Bengie Molina, I'd tell you the exact numbers, but it's having a problem at the moment.... five minutes later, no exaggeration, I discover that they were 4-3/3.46, but that's all I'm going to get, as I accidentally closed the wrong window and will now have to wait another five minutes before it tells me anything more). Last year, Ramirez was almost as dysfunctional as my aging and well-loved laptop, going 2-2 with an 8.31 ERA after suffering injury problems, but the team is hoping he can rebound this year and again be a solid contributor to the pen. He had an unsightly 1.56 WHIP and .313 BAA in '07, allowing 2 HR, 6 BB, and 15 K in 17.1 innings, often getting helped out by his defense (in just one example, I watched him pitch against... the Diamondbacks, I think it was, in which Willy T made a great catch to keep an RBI single to a sac fly, and Holliday charged down a sinking liner in the corner to end the inning and stop a double). To be honest, I'm not entirely thrilled about this prospect, but with Hawkins and Affeldt off to greener pastures, the team does need warm bodies in the pen. If Ramirez doesn't suck, he's welcome to pitch a few innings. If he does, the Cubs can have him, they always can use bad pitchers.

2007 Line: 2-2 W/L, 8.31 ERA, 22 G, o SV/0 SVO, 6 BB, 15 K
2008 Proj.: 0-1 W/L, 5.20 ERA, 20 G, 0 SV/0 SVO, 11 BB, 23 K
INC/DEC/LEV: LEV

#23 R/R Ryan Speier: Speier may be a casualty of the process, as he impressed down the stretch but still has minor-league options left, so he may be the odd man out and therefore relegated to start the season at Colorado Springs again. I have not forgotten, however, that I did promise to have his children after he closed out Game 2 of the NLCS against the Diamondbacks after it had gone into extra innings and Willy T had worked the game-winning walk against a wild Jose Valverde. So if the second Ryan S on the roster makes it back to Denver, he can take me up on this offer if he so wishes and Tulo hasn't gotten there first, as might have happened. If so, he will be out of luck, as he will be in regards to his prospects of making the big-league club, which he would certainly like better. He weebled and wobbled all over the damn place early on, but like everyone else, took it to the next level when it counted and Purple Row (where I post under the name Silverblood) decided that he was the "Ace in the Pen." If Ramirez blows chunks, Speier could find himself ticketed for Denver in the relatively early going. A sidewinding 6'7" righty, he spent a good deal of last year as the Sky Sox closer, had a few bumps on his first stint with the Rox, but made adjustments and was an integral part of the (and I cannot believe I am typing these words) lights-out iron curtain that was the Rockies bullpen in the playoffs. I wouldn't mind seeing him back, and if I do end up having his children, I hope they don't inherit his facial hair.

2007 Line: 3-1 W/L, 4.00 ERA, 20 G, 0 SV/1 SVO, 8 BB, 13 K
2008 Proj.: 2-1 W/L, 4.12 ERA, 24 G, 0 SV/0 SV0, 10 BB, 17 K
INC/DEC/LEV: LEV.

#44 L/L Micah Bowie: If Vizcaino is Hawkins, than Bowie is Affeldt. His most recent employer was the Washington Nationals, but the Rockies extended him a chance to attend camp as a NRI (non-roster invitee) and he's made the most of it. Thus far, in six Cactus League appearances, he's yet to allow a run in 7.1 IP, with three walks and four K's. Since his career ERA is a rather untidy 6.01, however, it may be a little much to hope that he's finally figured something out; I should take this opportunity to note that Kip Wells had a 1.16 ERA in camp last year and we all know how that turned out. Your basic journeyman type, Bowie has counted the Braves, Cubs, Athletics, and most recently Nationals among his employers, and the most games he's ever pitched in is 30, set last year in Washington. He pitched a career-high 57 innings, and it should also be noted that his second-highest total, 47 IP, came appended to a 2-6/9.96 (OY!) season with the Cubs in '99. In Colorado, he'll be counted to fill the void of LOOGY left in Affeldt's wake, and if he can be trusted to come in for one or two outs and retire dangerous lefties, that's all he needs to do; he doesn't even need to finish the inning if you just insert him judiciously here and there. He did have a 1.37 ERA in 2006 (19.2 IP) with the Nats, so limited exposure is evidently the key here. Overuse is a ticket to a blowup, probably when we least need it, seeing as that is a general rule of thumb. He did start 8 games in 2007, and if our fifth starter situation gets any worse... well, no. Let's hope it doesn't.

2007 Line: 4-3 W/L, 4.55 ERA, 30 G, 0 SV/0 SVO, 27 BB, 42 K
2008 Proj.: 2-3 W/L, 4.47 ERA, 24 G, 0 SV/0 SVO, 20 BB, 46 K
INC/DEC/LEV: LEV.

Other names you might see in the picture: Jose Capellan (talented but erratic, acquired from the Brewers, injury problems in the early going and hasn't seen much work, may be installed at some point) Zach McClellan (had a brief stint, interested in returning when healthy, which he currently is not, nothing particularly special) Juan Morillo (fireballer, not the greatest at control, needs more time in the minors, but power pitchers are always attractive) Josh Towers (bad) Mark Redman (still bad) Kip Wells (three-letter word starting with "b") the Grim Reaper (hey, can't be worse, and would have the benefit of making opposing batters quake in fear instead of anticipation).

Kip Wells' Cactus League ERA: 5.14
Josh Towers' Cactus League ERA: 7.20
Mark Redman's Cactus League ERA: 9.24

Holy hell, that is a lot of pitching incompetence. Can somebody tell me how we had "improving the team" in mind when we signed that junk?

Anyone? Anyone?

Thought so.

Ahem. I will do my best to get another preview done in sequence tomorrow, much as it may stun those of you well accustomed to my suspect scheduling. In which case it'll be the infield, and hopefully I won't have to write six different blurbs for the second base spot. The competition looks to be down to Nix and Baker, with Nix having the inside track if he gets over the stiff back that will sideline him for the next few days.

Around the Horn: Starters

At last, I'm back in the baseball blogging saddle. It took me a while, but spring training games started a few days ago and despite how excited I was to start the (fake) season again, it was a little difficult to get back in the habit. I've finally kicked some rust off, kept blogging football over at Gang Gridiron while reading baseball blogs madly, and although it's still a dadgum 29 days until Opening Day, am already more than ready for the season to start. MLB.com Gameday, which I have to use until I get home in May, is good in the regular season, but slow as hell in spring, so basically I get a quick summation of each inning if I'm lucky and it doesn't freeze completely. Which at the moment it is doing.

Onwards and upwards. We explore the starting rotation today, and the preview is followed by my deeply unscientific projections for their 2008 season. I don't run zillions of simulations or number-crunching; I just pick reasonably and mark whether I expect an increase, decline, or level from their 2007 performances (INC/DEC/LEV).

Projected:
1. Jeff Francis
2. Aaron Cook
3. Ubaldo Jimenez
4. Jason Hirsh
5. Franklin Morales (failing that, Mark Redman/Kip Wells/Josh Towers, but I prefer not to think about that possibility)

#26, L/L Jeff Francis: The 27-year-old Canadian lefty is now being hailed as the ace of the staff after a 17-9/4.22 record last year and starting three games in the playoffs. At this time last year, Aaron Cook had taken the Opening Day starter label, but it'll be Francis facing off against Adam Wainwright in St. Louis come March 31. Francis doesn't have typical ace stuff -- which to say, him hitting 90 on the radar gun is a rarity. He switches sides of the plate, has a crafty changeup, and relies on offspeed and deception. He's not going to blow anyone away, but when he's mixing up his stuff, he can be as good as anyone in the game. He's always prone to having to work through traffic, and still can give up big innings, but he's mastered the knack of Coors (home ERA is lower than his road ERA) and will be looked to as #1. For a time, though, as the kids develop, they could easily be threatening to steal his position. Francis, the ultimate humble team player, won't be kicking up much of a fuss. He has said it doesn't matter to him if he wins zero games, as long as the team wins 90-95. That's part of the mindset that makes the Rockies so fun to root for. Francis comes into 2008 looking to fulfill heightened expectations and not take a disappointing step backwards after maturing as a pitcher last year.

2007 Line: 17-9 W/L, 4.22 ERA, 34 GS, 215.1 IP, 63 BB, 165 K, 1.38 WHIP, .278 BAA
2008 Proj.: 17-10 W/L, 4.15 ERA, 33 GS, 220.2 IP, 59 BB, 157 K, 1.34 WHIP, .272 BAA
INC/DEC/LEV: Slight INC.

#28, R/R Aaron Cook: His campaign was shut down prematurely by an assortment of injuries in August, and although he was heralded as the ace by default coming into 2007, he was instead unseated by Francis and in fact didn't complete the season. Coming back in the fourth game of the World Series, he pitched well, 6 innings and 3 runs (but the Rockies lost, of course, and that is the last I hope to talk about what was a rather traumatic experience for me) leading to hopes that he'll be effective again once healthy. The front office certainly thought so, rewarding him with a four-year, $34-million contract extension that Cook will certainly set out to justify, since Rockies giving pitchers fat contracts in the past has worked out badly. (No, not thinking of anyone in particular, why?) His best pitch is his heavy sinker, which when located consistently low in the zone, produces groundballs galore. (However, you'd never know that from watching Torrealba call pitches, as Yorvit loves the fastball, fastball, fastball). Cook also has a curveball and slider, but will generally stick to the sinker if it's working and Yorvit remembers to call it. His biggest issues coming into 2008 will be proving he deserves the new contract and rehabilitating from the injuries that have plagued him in the past. He also could use work on improving his BB/K rate.

2007 Line: 8-7 W/L, 4.12 ERA, 25 GS, 166 IP, 44 BB, 61 K, 1.34 WHIP, .279 BAA
2008 Proj.: 13-8 W/L, 4.17 ERA, 30 GS, 189 IP, 56 BB, 95 K, 1.29 WHIP, .274 BAA
INC/DEC/LEV: LEV

#38, R/R Ubaldo Jimenez: This time last year, Jimenez was a highly regarded prospect making inroads at AAA Colorado Springs, but struggling with control and just hoping for a look-see at the big-league level. My, how things have changed. He still struggles with control, but is entering this spring penciled in as the Rockies' #3 starter and possessed of the most typically ace-like stuff of the bunch. Able to throw as high as 100 mph and regularly registering in the very high nineties, Jimenez fits the typical power-pitcher mold and is their bona-fide flamethrower. He uses his other pitches mainly to complement his fastball (the curve, in particular, still gives him trouble, and it's hit or miss as to whether he has his breaking stuff on any given day) but unlike the Francis type that can get into trouble if he doesn't have his offspeed, Jimenez can make up for it by rearing back and unleashing smoke. The problem is that he still walks too many (averaged 1 BB per 2 innings at one point last year) and is only 23. He was battle-tested down the stretch last year and in the playoffs, and managed to contain the thunderous Red Sox offense, as he was the starter in the game the Rockies lost 2-1. If he can get his wildness under control and continue to zip the flames in there, we could be looking at the start of a special career. I'll have to play it totally by ear when estimating his 2008 line, since he hasn't had a full year in the big leagues yet. But he has the talent to make it as far as the team, and he, can go.

2007 Line: 4-4 W/L, 4.28 ERA, 15 GS, 82 IP, 37 BB, 68 K, 1.30 WHIP, .228 BAA
2008 Proj.: 10-5 W/L, 3.87 ERA, 25 GS, 175 IP, 69 BB, 199 K, 1.20 WHIP, .224 BAA
INC/DEC/LEV: Strong INC.

#48, R/R Jason Hirsh: He was a dominating pitcher in the Minors, but the edition the Rockies got didn't quite fit the mold. After a few excellent early-season showings, he got absolutely hammered in the summer, up and down. He suffered an ankle injury against the Mets on the basepaths, came back, and then took a liner off the leg on August 7 (I was at that game) breaking the right fibula. The silly man stayed in and pitched six innings on it anyway, picking up the win, but that was it for him for the season. He consequently missed being able to participate in the Rockies' pennant-winning drive, although he got to cheer them on from the dugout. Returning this year, he's determined to get a chance to experience it on-field as well, and to get back to the success he displayed as an Astros prospect. Last season, he was pitching more in the Francis mold -- trying to use his curve and changeup before going to his fastball -- and since that's not the sort of pitcher he is, it didn't work. The pitching brain trust has convinced him to use his fastball as a primary pitch and then introduce the offspeed stuff from there, which is also the difference between going directly after hitters and trying to guile them into biting. At 6'8"/250 lb, he has plenty of size and can use that to go after the David Ecksteins and Ryan Theriots of the NL, and a few of the larger specimens as well. His injuries last year were mainly the flukish type -- line drives right back at the box are a total wildcard -- so he hopefully shouldn't have any major issues with staying healthy this year. This will be only his second year as a full-time starter, so he'll have to continue to learn the ropes. Mark against him: He worked for the San Diego Chargers this offseason and loves the team. BOOOOO. Jason, you're a Colorado resident now, at least for half the year, so consider switching your football alliances.

2007 Line: 5-7 W/L, 4.81 ERA, 19 GS, 112.1 IP, 48 BB, 75 K, 1.34 WHIP, .244 BAA
2008 Proj.: 11-8 W/L, 4.25 ERA, 24 GS, 157.2 IP, 55 BB, 120 K, 1.28 WHIP, .239 BAA
INC/DEC/LEV: INC.

#56 L/L Franklin Morales: Morales is a stud prospect -- a 22-year-old lefty with dazzling stuff and just as much heat as Jimenez. He commands a full repertoire of pitches and has the ability to become something else as well, but he is young, prone to wildness, and can get flustered easily on the mound. Once he can control his nerves, along with his pitches, look out. The team wants him to fill the #5 slot, but also wants him to earn it, with terrifying evildoers replacement plans Kip Wells, Josh Towers, and Mark Redman waiting in the wings. Wells went 7-17 with an ERA well north of 5 for the Cardinals, Towers went 5-10 with an ERA well north of 5 for the Blue Jays, and Mark Redman is, well Mark Redman. None of those options inspire particular confidence, and putting even one of them in the bullpen could be a bomb in disguise, but the Rox are hoping that their track record of rehabilitating wash-ups can continue. Oy vey. Anyway, about Morales. Since this is his first full year in the bigs, he'll be eased in, but they're counting on him to play a larger role, as he did have experience down the stretch last year and made his debut in the heat of a pennant race, on the road in Los Angeles, in a game the Rockies eventually won 7-4 in extra innings. Morales pitched 5 innings, allowed 1 run, and added one himself with the bat, as he's a converted outfielder, it's possible he still might remember how to hit. Cook is probably the best hitter among the Rockies starters, Francis occasionally stumbles into a double, and Jimenez is terrible, but his arm is far more important than his bat. Hirsh got a pair of hits in the Mets game he injured himself in, but otherwise isn't much to speak of, so maybe Frankie can chip in a few well-timed singles here and there. He had a strong 2-inning outing today in relief of Hirsh, allowing one hit and striking out two with little trouble, so if he can claim the #5 spot from the get-go, the team can avoid the win-hemorrhaging they might develop with Wells/Towers/Redman sucking up starts.

2007 Line: 3-2 W/L, 3.43 ERA, 8 GS, 39.1 IP, 14 BB, 26 K, 1.22 WHIP, .241 BAA
2008 Proj.: 8-4 W/L, 3.75 ERA, 20 GS, 144.2 IP, 42 BB, 115 K, 1.25 WHIP, .235 BAA
INC/DEC/LEV: INC.

Next come the relievers. Tomorrow, hopefully, but you never know.

GLORY BE

Baseball baseball BASEBALL base-ball baseBALL BASEball Baseball Baseball BASEBALL BASEBALL almost almost almost smellin' springtime pitchers and catchers reporting today workouts Saturday spring is coming BASEBALL the great slump is over soon it will be better but now it's good, we're gettin' there, we will survive, almost almost almost!

Yes, that is all I have to say.

Dammit, It's Almost Spring

Warm, gray, and rainy here in New York as the Giants get their parade, and with that, the football season officially comes to a close (the Pro Bowl, while fun in the same way as the All-Star Game, doesn't count). With that, we can now turn our attention back to baseball, and when one of my friends pointed out to me yesterday that the Rockies' pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in 10 days, it was like water to a man (woman) coming out of the desert. 10 days?! That's all?! Position players in two weeks?! AMEN. Thank ye Jeebus, the offseason is long, football is great, but baseball is still supreme, and it feels like damn-well forever since we had a little action on the diamond instead of the gridiron. Very soon, the trucks will be rolling into Arizona (and Florida), there will be workouts under a spring sun, bats and balls, green grass and palm trees, and the world will be right again.

Still not much news on the Rockies front, as the team has taken the tact of "do nothing except sign some filler pieces" as the beginnings of their NL Champs defense (I will never get tired of writing that). For the first time in a very long while, they will take the field with expectations, and even if due only to Tulo, losing will not be acceptable. Should be fun.

The team is in negotiations with Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, and Brian Fuentes (good geebus) on arbitration-year contracts (for the former two) and a possible extension (for the third). Why we are so dead-set on keeping Fuentes I don't know, as we'll have plenty of bombs in the bullpen if (gulp) any one of the terrible triumvirate of Wells, Redman, and Towers end up in there, let alone two or more. (Please be ready for the fifth-starter job, Franklin Morales). All-Star lefty.... um, All-Star selections are completely meaningless, as Fuentes went (or didn't, since he was injured) to the Midsummer Classic exactly a week after shitting all over four straight save opportunities. He doesn't have the greatest mental makeup either, as far as I can tell, but maybe the less-intense role of setup man will take some of the pressure off him. Thankfully, Hurdle has seen the light and has announced that it will not be a competition for the closer's role -- that job is Manny Corpas' to keep. Good.

Once Spring Training starts, I'll be writing previews -- maybe I'll give the NL a crack, since I got all the AL and none of the NL done last year -- and doing Around the Horn position featurettes for the Rockies. And guess what? It's still not here. The few weeks in between the Super Bowl and spring training are a sadistic wasteland.

AAAAAH.....

Holliday Signed, Tulo in Talks

Finally, some Rockies news, and naturally I'm a few days off on it, but that's better than I've been recently. Matt Holliday signed a 2-year, $23-million contract that buys out his last two years of arbitration eligibility -- I'm sure Scott Boras wouldn't let him sign anything that covers any of his free-agent years. Said Dan O'Dowd, "We hope the deal is a bridge to a longer-term agreement." Perhaps there's hope yet, since Holliday will be just 30 when this contract expires after the 2009 season, but if he continues to perform at this level, the Rockies will be hard-pressed to cough up the kind of mongo-bucks that Holliday will want (and deserve). Still, I'm satisfied with this deal if only so we don't have to go through the whole process next winter with him, and I'm trying not to imagine how much it'll hurt if we don't re-sign him. The contract is for $9.5 million this year, upgrading to $13.5 mil next year. Hopefully Holliday's mammoth offensive performance will duplicate itself; if it does, $23 million for the close runner-up (and in my mind, the actual) NL MVP isn't much to pay.

There is one other long-term contract in the works right now, and that's the pact being discussed with rookie sensation Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo, who has proven himself so well that the front office is bandying the idea of a six-year contract with an option about a player entering his second season, was the chief reason for the Rockies' newfound winning mentality and is a natural talent; I love watching him play. Whether turning slick double plays or ripping the timely hit, Tulo's natural skills are prodigious enough that the proposed contract would lock him up for the six years of club control, plus an option to cover his first year of free agency. Basically, the Rockies would be insane to ever let him go at all, since he can only go further up from here, but that's the way the management goes.

Tulo doesn't yet know who his double-play partner will be, however. The Rockies have a whole flock of candidates in the mix -- Jayson Nix, Marcus Giles, Clint Barmes (oy) Omar Quintanilla, Jeff Baker, and Ian Stewart, with Nix appearing to be the front-runner. Giles hit only .229 for the Padres last year, but a mammoth .526 at Coors Field. A solid performance for Team USA helped raise his stock after an average minor-league career, and Barmes and Q are solid glove-men but their hitting can charitably be rated as very bad to nonexistent. Ian Stewart is a third-base prospect who could be converted. Baker is a corner infielder and utility outfielder who hit .368 in September 2006, leading everyone to hope that he could duplicate this performance in '07; he did not. My personal preferences would be Stewart or Nix, maybe Giles if he can keep hitting the way he did earlier, and don't really think Baker, Barmes, or Quintanilla can cut it full-time. They may be AAAA players (too good for the minors, not good enough for the majors). Nix has been inconsistent aside from one good performance, so his hitting skills are also in question. If Stewart can make the transition, we'd have a power-hitting second baseman, which would be nice.

Still not spring, but I've been writing a lot of football at Gang Gridiron. If that's your bag, check it out; otherwise, the Around the Horn position-by-position previews will come just as soon as the Super Bowl is over and spring training starts. In other words, not just yet, sadly.

How I Spend The Time Until Spring

... aka, this is my latest bloggery project. Yes, after spending an entire offseason watching football fanatically, I now feel (naturally) as if I want to start writing about it, and I don't want to mix my audience (haha.... like I have an audience) up too much. The last post dipped only briefly into football waters (and yes, I realize it has been a month since then, but with an extremely slow offseason for the Rockies coupled with my fervent desire to avoid reading about the Mitchell Report, there is little to say about the great old game). So, if you feel the desire to extend my special brand of sports-related insanity to your football passions as well, please check out:

Gang Gridiron

(tanta ta ta tan-ta-tah!)

If you are still out there, bless you. Baseball will start soon, and then I'll be back to work. I think I'm going to start writing "Around the Horn" featurettes such as they do on the main Rockies site, one for each player, but with that particular brand of wit and inaccurate predictions that make me so endearing. Ho ho.

The Mitchell Witch Hunt, Offseasons Suck And So Does My Computer, Haren to D-backs

As you can see, clearly I should blog more often so I don't have to cram all these subjects into one post, but I expect I'll be forgiven if I say it's only one more week to go in semester and I'm more than ready to go home and have it be Christmas already. Also, my computer has been possessed by demons at a particularly inopportune time, and now the r key is completely broken -- I have to copy/paste it in -- and if I so much as touch the empty socket where it used to be, it goes crazy, inserting very long lines of the letter while I vainly attempt to stem the flow and edit it out. Fortunately, my computer has relented to let me at least use it, which it wasn't doing last night and making me very nervous about finishing/editing term papers, etc. Therefore, I might as well blog because I currently have nothing better to do.

Of course, as I'm sure everyone's aware, the Mitchell Witch Hunt came out yesterday and named 60-80 players that the feds have busted for illicit steroid use -- or at least the ones who used the same supplier (an ex-Mets clubhouse attendant named Kirk Radomski, who apparently was the nucleus for steroid supply during the juiced eras of the '90s) and were stupid enough to write checks from their personal accounts, which of course got traced back to them by the valiant efforts of sir Mitchell. One current Rockie did get fingered -- reliever Matt Herges, who apparently used PEDs in 2005, went 5-1/2.96 last year, and who we just re-signed for the 2008 campaign. It'll be interesting to see what sort of punishments get handed down... Selig, the ball-less wonder, has said that he'll punish players according to what sort of rules against PEDs were in place at the time of their infraction, which makes sense -- no use punishing them now for something that wasn't illegal then.

But all this shows was how badly Selig and his cronies dragged their feet on getting an effective testing policy implemented in the game and how long he turned a blind eye as the 'roid-fueled monsters blasted 70+ home runs in the juicy summer of 1998 and interest in the game was peaking -- all for profit. He let Jeffrey Loria kill the Expos and now he's letting him kill the Marlins... no, I am no fan of the man at all, but at the same time, this isn't all on his shoulders. Those (dis)honors also go to Radomski (thinking that this toad was happily complicit in the shaming of my favorite sport ever, just to make money, makes me want to kill something) and of course all the players who decided that their natural talent wasn't enough and had to get an unfair advantage over those who played fair. There has to be a few -- while rampant 'roiding was the name of the game in the late '90s, I refuse to adopt the position of the pessimists who insist it was everybody. Also, I've read a good deal of the 409 pages of the Mitchell report, and while it turns up a few hard-to-refute juicers (Roger Clemens is going to have to do some extremely fast talking to reserve his previously cast-in-iron spot in Cooperstown, so naturally his technique is deny, deny, deny) it also seems to rely too extensively on hearsay. The entry on Jack Cust, I kid you not, has to do with the fact that he had a locker next to Larry Bigbie (a self-admitted juicer) and they once had a conversation about steroids...

However, the report does kick the last feet out from under the Barry Bonds apologists who point to the fact that the so-called home run king has never failed a drug test -- he had extensive advance warning for them, and besides, Bigbie was on HGH during 2004 and MLB's medieval pee-in-a-cup policy naturally failed to turn anything up. Bonds and Clemens, to no one's very great surprise, are given the biggest black eyes, but the report also turns up a bunch of thoroughly mediocre players (Adam Piatt, anyone?) which proves that steroids, while enhancing your natural gifts, can't turn you from zero to hero overnight. Sad that Bonds and Clemens were some of the most gifted players of their era and then, seeing it as somehow "not enough," had to turn to shady pharmaceutical shenanigans just for a few more shiny stats. It will also definitely be interesting to see what happens in 2012, which, assuming neither of them plays again, is the first year that they'll be eligible for the Hall of Fame. Ask Mark McGwire how that's working for him...

I'm personally relieved that none of the Blake Street Bombers past or present got named, but that doesn't mean they're clean. I hate this culture of suspicion in which everybody is guilty until proven innocent, and you can't go around pre-emptively attaching the juicer tag to absolutely everyone; you'll just drive yourself nuts and hurt the innocent players who have kept their noses clean in a difficult era. The Mitchell Report, however, is just the beginning, and everyone has promised that more names will surface as investigations continue. After all, that despicable weasel Radomski can't have been the only supplier.

I want to emphasize that this does not change my feelings for baseball one bit, and I think those that swear off the sport forever are just indulging in Chicken-Little-style histrionics. Did MLB handle the drug problem badly? Yes. Is Bud Selig an industrial-grade tool? Yes. Are the players and suppliers complete jerks for doing this? Hard to say. Suppliers, yes, there's no excuse. Get a real job instead of dealing drugs. As for the players, it's more complicated. It's never all right to cheat, and while some of them do it to flash their "skillz," some of them certainly were faced with the tough choice of either staying clean and fading away in the minor leagues or getting on the "stuff" and realizing their lifelong dream of making it to the Show. Or they were injured and genuinely wanted to rehabilitate faster and come back to help their team. It's their own fault that they exercised poor judgment in how to go about this, but to paint every steroid user with the "Total cheater, should be banned from baseball for life" label is an ugly and unfair oversimplification. They're certainly there, of course, and it's easy to sort out the self-righteous douchenozzles from the rest of the bunch. Peer pressure, wanting to keep your job, thinking that you needed to take them to keep up with the rest of the league, the difference between financial uncertainty and being set for life -- there are a lot of factors in play. But this too shall pass. The great old game is still the great old game. Watch it anyway. There are good apples and bad apples in the barrel, and when spring comes around again, there are blue skies, palm trees, workouts, and the ever-minted new hope of another season, this will hopefully cease to matter.

Which reminds me.... boy, is this damn offseason long. My newest pursuit is football, and I've been watching a lot of it, in an attempt to while away the long winter months. I know you're astonished, but this post will briefly dabble in football instead, and if I get really bored, I'll turn it into a Broncos blog for the last few weeks before spring. Watching the Broncos is eerily like watching the early-season Rockies, actually. They have the young, talented core, a head coach who may or may not be a total idiot, and a frustrating inability to get it going all at once. I know I missed the boat on the Broncos being good by about ten years, but what the hell. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil, Tony Scheffler, Brandon Stokely, et all (with the exception of Todd Sauerbrun... do not kick to Devin Hester, you asshat) form a talented nucleus with occasional glimpses of greatness interspersed with moments of total brain-fartery.

Still, they're naturally my team, I enjoy watching them, and, being spoiled by the game-a-day schedule of baseball, impatiently await Sundays every week so I at least have a sport to follow. They're usually quite fun. (Thursday's game notwithstanding.... 31-13 loss to the Texans puts the nail in the coffin for all intents and purposes, but I think it was unfair to talk about the playoffs with this unit anyway. They clearly need another year to mature and mesh, and then we'll see. Cutler ranks fourth in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt (7.92) just behind such luminaries as Brady (8.60) Romo (8.58) and Favre (7.96), coming in ahead of Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning (7.90) He's got a cannon of an arm, quick feet, a good head for the game, but is still 24 and as such tends to make rookie mistakes. Also, can he please break a tackle when trying to scramble out of the pocket.... (four sacks last night) Still, he's completing over 64% of his passes, his QB rating is 90.8, and he has 18 TD passes to 12 picks -- while #6 may not yet be #7, he's working on it. Brandon Marshall is also showcasing great potential, and while Cutler/Marshall may not yet be Brady/Moss, it's definitely going to be something to watch. Now that The Carcass Which Was Jake Plummer has vacated Mile High (I don't care if they call it Invesco, nobody in Colorado does) and if Shanny ever got a clue and Sauerbrun stopped doing stupid things like running off his mouth, kicking to Devin Hester, and getting arrested, we could be seeing the start of something again.

Okay! Back to baseball. That was my first foray into football blogging ever, and now back to my familiar ground. Today, the D-backs made the biggest move of the NL West by landing Dan Haren from the A's. Haren, 27 years old, under an extremely reasonable contract for the next three years, and the 2007 AL All-Star starter, is now going to team with Brandon Webb to form an extremely scary 1-2 punch at the top of the 'Zona rotation. His price was six prospects -- Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, Aaron Cunningham, and Chris Carter (to which you probably said, "Who?" to every name) and at first blush, it looks as if Billy Beane was going for quantity over quality. Every prospect has potential, clearly, and that's two A-level (Gonzalez/Anderson) and four B-level (everyone else). Still, this will be either the Mark Mulder trade (total thievery) or the Tim Hudson trade (total debacle) for the A's, and I am somewhat baffled as to why Beane made this trade for these parts. What with the big-market teams furiously competing to get Santana and viewing Haren as a safety net, Beane the famous extortionist should have been able to play on that and get at least one ML-ready player (Justin Upton, Chris Young, Stephen Drew, etc) from the stacked Snakes system. Not entirely sure what he sees here to entice him to give up the most valuable commodity in the game -- a young, cheap, durable ace -- for a package of possibility.

I am also admittedly not pleased that we didn't make a comparable offer -- our farm system is also comparatively rich in talent -- and get Haren out of the AL West and onto the right NL West team. Haren/Webb, with Doug Davis, Randy Johnson (if he's healthy) and double-edged threat Micah Owing (he pitches and hits; won the Silver Slugger for a pitcher) is not a fun thought to entertain as we scope out the competition in the West next year. What have the Rockies done? Signed Kip Wells (7-17.5.20/total suck in '07) Mark Redman, and missed out on Tad Iguchi (no Barmes as second base starter. Just say no. Just say no.... Why can't we ever get a proven star-quality pitcher instead of a possibly-decent, possibly-catastrophic retread....? It's not going to get any easier in the West next year and it makes no sense to stock up with gasoline cans if every other team is going to bring the matches.

This has already been a long post and my psychotic r key is starting to go insane again, randomly inserting endless and random r's, which I'm getting tired of curtailing. More later....

Further Evidence I Suck at Predictions

but in my defense, nobody really saw this magical year coming for Colorado. In fact, as late as September 16, it looked like the same old story and they'd be lucky to finish a few games above .500 (in my preseason predictions, I gave them an 81-81 split and that was about all I was hoping for before the late-season surge kicked into gear). Now it's time to review my individual player predictions, some of which I was close on and some of which I completely missed the boat on (Tulo and Jeff Baker coming to mind). Also note that I only compare predictions with those players who started and finished the year on the team, to spare us the pain of reliving the John Mabry/Steve Finley/Tom Martin experiments.

COLORADO ROCKIES: REVIEW

Jeff Francis, LHP
Projected: 15-10, 4.05 ERA, 201 IP, 135 K, 32 starts
Actual: 17-9, 4.22 ERA, 215.1 IP, 165 K, 34 starts
Result: My Nostradamus skills weren't too bad here. Jeff eked out two extra wins and got bailed out by the offense on the occasion of a few poor starts to keep the loss total south of double-digits, and discovered a strikeout knack to bump him about 30 K's north of the figure I estimated, but in general, this is a close prediction. Kudos to me. Hit.

Aaron Cook, RHP
Projected: 15-12, 4.12 ERA, 215 IP, 95 K, 32 starts
Actual: 8-7, 4.12 ERA, 166 IP, 61 K, 25 starts
Result: Cookie was sidelined by injury again, cutting back on his numbers quite a bit further than I estimated. He definitely didn't come close to the record total I envisioned (but I did hit the ERA nail on the head, go me). He also came 40 innings shy of 200, so I definitely got it wrong on the IP total and gave him too many K's. Miss.

Rodrigo Lopez, RHP
Projected: 8-14, 5.31 ERA, 170 IP, 101 K, 24 starts
Actual: 5-4, 4.42 ERA, 79.1 IP, 43 K, 14 starts
Result: Er, clearly, I miscalculated on this one. Lopez wasn't the 9-18 horror I'd been steeling myself for from the 2006 Orioles, and in the early going he even looked good, but then he made the ill-advised choice of trying to pitch through elbow problems and got blown up. Shut down in August and became a free-agent, may not pitch until August of next year. Miss.

Josh Fogg, RHP
Projected: 10-15, 5.24 ERA, 165 IP, 85 K, 30 starts
Actual: 10-9, 4.94 ERA, 165.2 IP, 94 K, 29 starts
Result: Fogg discovered a way to be good, or at least not bad, in select spots this year, earning the moniker "Dragon Slayer" for his tendency to beat other teams' aces. Still, a world-beater he isn't. I gave him too many losses and an ERA slightly higher than what he ended up with, but nailed win total and IP and came within 9 on the Ks and 1 on the starts. Hit.

Jason Hirsh, RHP
Projected: 7-4, 4.05 ERA, 93 IP, 56 K, 10 starts
Actual: 5-7, 4.81 ERA, 112.1 IP, 75 K, 19 starts
Result: I didn't foresee Hirsh earning a starting spot when I made my predictions (of course, a few weeks later, he got the #4 job). He had moments of brilliance, especially early in the season against the Padres and a six-inning shutout of the Mets in July, but at other times got completely bombed (especially by the Cards) and missed most of the second half of the season due to an assortment of freak injuries. Still projected to be a key contributor next year. Miss.

Taylor Buchholz, RHP
Projected: 3-4, 4.65 ERA, 75 IP, 32 K, 4 starts
Actual: 6-5, 4.23 ERA, 93.2 IP, 61 K, 8 starts
Result: Another one of the pitchers the Rox acquired in the Jennings deal, Bucky was supposed to be a starter, but didn't impress in that role and found a solid and reliable role as the pen's long man. I missed on the win/loss total (although got it right that there was one more than the other) came within the ballpark on the ERA, but muffed IP/K/starts. Miss.

Brian Fuentes, RHP
Projected: 4-2, 3.15 ERA, 31 SV/37 SVO
Actual: 3-5, 3.08 ERA, 20 SV/27 SVO
Result: Oh, Fuentes, I may never forgive you. You've etched yourself into the same unfortunate category as Jose Jimenez, Shawn Chacon, and Jose Mesa, first with your choke job in June and then almost single-handedly destroying the Rockies' prospects for a comeback in Games 3 and 4 of the World Series. Off on the win/loss, quite close on ERA, and predicted six blown saves; he blew seven, and each of them were agony. Hit.

Jeremy Affeldt, LHP
Projected: 1-1, 6.04 ERA, 1 SV/3 SVO
Actual: 4-3, 3.51 ERA, 0 SV/4 SVO
Result: So I underestimated Affeldt; for most of the season he was a decent seventh/eighth inning guy out of the pen before hitting a major wall in September. Still, he wasn't as shitaceous as I was grimly expecting him to be (come on, he's an ex-Royal like Mark "All Star" Redman). Miss.

Manny Corpas, RHP
Projected: 3-2, 3.34 ERA, 2 SV/3 SVO
Actual: 4-2, 2.08 ERA, 19 SV/22 SVO
Result: Clearly, I did not foresee Corpas becoming Studly McStudlerson at closer after Fuentes turned into Choky McChokerson, but so it happened. Manny became a legit flamethrower and a true ninth-inning guy with the mental toughness needed to make everyone feel really confident when he got the ball to close it out. I'll happily take a Miss on this one.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP
Projected: 1-1, 4.77 ERA, 2 SV/ 5 SVO
Actual: 2-5, 3.42 ERA, 0 SV/5 SVO
Result: He's LaTroy Hawkins, what can you say? He comes to pieces if you attempt to use him as a closer or in any inning later than the eighth, but as a seventh-inning guy, he's generally useful. We can bring him back, maybe, if he takes a pay cut and is used in his proper role. Miss.

Note that I don't have any numbers to toss around for late-season studs Ubaldo Jimenez, Franklin Morales, Ryan Speier, etc. They opened the season in Triple-A and weren't marked for promotion, and when Speier was first up, he sucked, so he was quickly sent back. Elmer Dessens, Mark Redman, Ramon Ortiz, et all, aside from being names that I hope I never have to hear in conjunction with the words Colorado Rockies again, were late-season additions. Tom Martin was FINALLY given his walking papers after being as bad as everyone, including me, predicted ( 2-3, 5.64 ERA were my choices, 0-0, 4.91 was the actual). But Jimenez and Morales figure to play a big role next year, and Speier will be back if they don't retain Affeldt/Hawkins et all, and may be back on his own merits as well. 2008 will definitely be an interesting season... as long as Dan O'Dowd does not shoot himself in the foot first by re-signing Shawn Chacon and/or signing Brett Tomko (seriously, I heard he was thinking about that). In what universe and under the influence of what drug is that improvement, Dealin' Dan?

Okay. Now for the hitters.

Todd Helton, 1B
Projected: .318 AVG, 21 HR, 90 RBI, .430 OBP, .490 SLG, .920 OPS
Actual: .321 AVG, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .434 OBP, .494 SLG, .928 OPS
Result: Man, did I nail this one. I called the resurge in average, maintained the crazy OBP, gave ol' Todd a few too many homers, but other than that, I came within a few decimals on everything. Hit.

Jamey Carroll, 2B
Projected: .301 AVG, 2 HR, 27 RBI, .363 OBP, .390 SLG, .753 OPS
Actual: .225 AVG, 2 HR, 22 RBI, .317 OBP, .300 SLG, .617 OPS
Result: Okay, so in case I was thinking I was getting good at this from the success of Todd, here's Carroll to bring me back to earth. He hit at a miserly rate, had a terrible OBP/SLG, but oddly enough, I did get the power numbers right. Fell back to earth after a flukey 2006. Do not let him be the starting 2B next year with the likely departure of Kaz (to the Chicago Muthafriggin Cubs, who I hate with a passion unmatched... except for the Yankees). Miss.

Kaz Matsui, 2B
Projected: .262 AVG, 3 HR, 30 RBI, .327 OBP, .436 SLG, .763 OPS
Actual: .288 AVG, 4 HR, 37 RBI, .342 OBP, .405 SLG, .778 OPS
Result: I'll say I came closer to a hit than a miss on this. I underestimated the strong season Kaz would put together on the rebound in terms of batting average, but HR total, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OPS were all fairly close to what I called, his higher OBP and lower SLG equaling out to quite close on the OPS. Hit.

Clint Barmes, "SS"
Projected: .237 AVG, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .270 OBP, .330 SLG, .600 OPS
Actual: .216 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, .237 OBP, .297 SLG, .534 OPS
Result: Dear God, Clint Barmes. He makes me shudder. When I gave him these generous totals, I was assuming he might, due to Hurdle's maddening love for him, take away playing time from Tulo. Instead, he was even more nauseating than my underwhelming numbers, which says a lot about that Miss. Do not, in the name of all that is holy, make the Rockies brass think that he will be an even barely acceptable fill-in for Kaz next year.

Troy Tulowitzki, Zeus
Projected: .282 AVG, 8 HR, 45 RBI, .330 OBP, .340 SLG, .670 OPS
Actual: .291 AVG, 24 HR, 99 RBI, .359 OBP, .479 SLG, .838 OPS
Result: Erm... hem... HOO BOY. I was wow-really-sorry-Tulo-let-me-bear-your-children-in-apology off on this one... I have learned my lesson. Purple Baby Jesus is the truth. And no Team Jesus jokes. Thank you. Clint Barmes-esque Miss.

Garrett Atkins, 3B
Projected: .331 AVG, 33 HR, 130 RBI, .400 OBP, .567 SLG, .967 OPS
Actual: .301 AVG, 25 HR, 111 RBI, .367 SLG, .486 SLG, .853 OPS
Result: I overvalued Atkins, but he would have come quite a bit closer to my totals if he hadn't spent the first two months of the season in a horrid slump -- he got untracked after that and hit something like .340+ after the All-Star Break. Although not the MVP-caliber I thought, still a solid season. Miss, but only due to May.

Brad Hawpe, RF
Projected: .301 AVG, 27 HR, 95 RBI, .399 OBP, .530 SLG, .929 OPS
Actual: .291 AVG, 29 HR, 116 RBI, .387 OBP, .539 SLG, .926 OPS
Result: I actually came fairly close on dear ol' Brad. I clearly should have called that average for Atkins, and Hawpe didn't ever make it north of .300, but I was within 2 on the homers and extremely close on OBP/SLG/OPS, only undervaluing him on RBI. Hit.

Jeff Baker, RF
Projected: .312 AVG, 14 HR, 46 RBI, .385 OBP, .477 SLG, .862 OPS
Actual: .222 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .296 OBP, .347 SLG, .643 OPS
Result: Holy flying Batman underpants. I guess the fact that Baker hit .368 after his 2006 call-up blinded me to the fact that he is not, in fact, Dante Bichette reincarnated. Seeing as I was expecting him to play much more than he did, and to be a whole lot better than he is, it makes sense as to why I Missed fairly badly here.

Ryan Spilborghs, RF/CF
Projected: .270 AVG, 5 HR, 25 RBI, .330 OBP, .415 SLG, .745 OPS
Actual: .299 AVG, 11 HR, 51 RBI, .363 OBP, .485 SLG, .848 OPS
Result: Yet another case in which I'm perfectly happy to be wrong. Spilborghs arrived and provided an immediate spark, although he faded badly down the stretch when he had to play every day. Still, he's a very valued part to have-- good fourth outfielders are underrated, and I'll again be fine with taking a Miss here.

Cory Sullivan, CF
Projected: .272 AVG, 3 HR, 31 RBI, .317 OBP, .375 SLG, .692 OPS
Actual: .286 AVG, 2 HR, 14 RBI, .336 OBP, .386 SLG, .722 OPS
Result: Sullivan did slightly better than I gave him credit for in all categories, and provided singles-hitting skills off the bench if very minimal power. I really missed in RBI/OBP, but otherwise the projection is close enough that I'm going to call this a Hit, dammit.

Willy Taveras, CF
Projected: .260 AVG, 1 HR, 17 RBI, .314 OBP, .323 SLG, .637 OPS
Actual: .320 AVG, 2 HR, 24 RBI, .367 OBP, .382 SLG, .749 OPS
Result: I undervalued Willy T, but it didn't look like I had at first; he had an awful start to the season and couldn't get on base to save his life. Then came a 5-for-6 April 25 game against the Mets (which I happen to have attended) and he was off and running, literally, as his biggest impact came on the basepaths (33 stolen bases). Still, he needs to find a way to a) get on aside from beating out bunts, and b) stay healthy. His speed does us no good if he keeps getting something wrong with his legs. Miss.

Matt Holliday, LF
Projected: .339 AVG, 38 HR, 125 RBI, .390 OBP, .600 SLG, .990 OPS
Actual: .340 AVG, 36 HR, 137 RBI, .405 OBP, .607 SLG, 1.012 OPS
Result: Called it. Holliday's transformation from middling minor-league maybe-shoulda-played-quarterback prospect to legit MVP candidate (who won't get it, judging by the way the Rockies have been robbed blind this offseason) is complete. He was almost completely in line with what I called for him in February, and dear God, can Scott Boras just go away so we can re-sign him? (Yes, I also enjoy beating my head on brick walls). Hit.

Yorvit Torrealba, C
Projected: .250 AVG, 6 HR, 44 RBI, .299 OBP, .405 SLG, .704 OPS
Actual: .255 AVG, 8 HR, 47 RBI, .323 OBP, .376 SLG, .699 OPS
Result: Yeah, my prediction looks pretty similar to the actual production, and until the deal fell through at the eleventh hour, the Mets were actually prepared to pay 3 years/14.4 million for this. Also, he let 61 of 76 runners steal... good lord. Redeeming factor: Great with the pitchers, especially all the Latino youngsters. Still, time to move on. Hit.

Chris Iannetta, C
Projected: .270 AVG, 8 HR, 50 RBI, .375 OBP, .387 SLG, .762 OPS
Actual: .218 AVG, 4 HR, 27 RBI, .330 OBP, .350 SLG, .680 OPS
Result: Yeah, I missed it, but Iannetta was given only a minimum of playing time and seemed unready in the early going. However, he matured during the season and after a brief demotion in August, hit .348 the rest of the way down the stretch, proving that he is capable of learning at and playing at this level. Still only 24 and looked to as the Rockies' catcher of the future. Which means they'll sign some crappy veteran Kendall/Barrett/et al to take his place again. Poor Ian. Pretty face. Miss.

Overall: I came quite close on some, missed badly on others, and, like everyone else, didn't foresee the 21-of-22 surge or the fact that they actually won the NL Pennant before getting creamed by the Red Sox. Still, it was quite a thrilling and magical season that I'm extremely glad to have been a part of, and I eagerly await 2008. *

* Now if Chacon/Tomko/et all get signed, or Carroll/Barmes/Quintanilla is dubbed the starting second baseman, I reserve the right to change my opinion...

** Oh what the hell. If I wanted to jump off, I could have done so before now...

*** Although as everyone knows, being a Rockies fan is hard.

**** Shut up, Charlie/Dick Monfort.

Tulo vs. Rollins/Braun -- WHAZZA?

Anyone who has followed baseball on more than a superficial level for the past few years can name you a list of the sport's perpetual doormats – the Cubs, the Royals, the Cubs, the Devil Rays, the Cubs, the Rockies – or not. Hold the phone, at least on the last two. While the comically inept North Siders are still waiting to cash a world championship check for the first time since 1908, the Royals are held in the thrall of David Glass, and the Devil Rays are hoping that a long-term rebuilding plan with young stars Scott Kazmir, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and Evan Longoria propels them from zero to hero in a brutal AL East, the Rockies are finally reaping the rewards of their own retooling plan.

The Rockies, brought to baseball's exclusive fraternity in 1993, won a wild card in 1995 on the strength of the Blake Street Bombers – Castilla, Walker, Bichette – and their helium-inflated statistics, taking advantage of a home park that played like a pinball field to offset suspect pitching and raise fans' hopes for a glorious future for the toddler franchise. Unfortunately, the promise never materialized, and watching their brothers in expansion, the Marlins, capture a championship two years later stuck in their craw. It must have required the Heimlich when the Fish did it again in 2003, earning a World Series MVP performance from some kid named Josh Beckett and upsetting the heavily favored Yankees in six games, Aaron Boone's previous ALCS heroics notwithstanding.

While the Marlins were building a winning product and then promptly dismantling it, the Rockies were struggling to build anything at all. They clambered over the ledge of respectability exactly once after 1995, carving out an 82-80 ledge in 2000 back when Coors Field was still Coors Canaveral and pitchers dreaded entering the thin air for the inevitable 10-9 slugfest. The problem was that the Rockies lacked any good arms of their own, a deficiency they attempted to remedy after 2000 by two of the most justifiably mocked free-agent deals in history, ludicrous 7-year/$120 million and 5-year/$51 million pacts to Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle, respectively (two names that cause Rockies fans to exhibit a Pavlovian twitch, close seconds being Lance Painter, Shawn Chacon-as-closer, and Jose Mesa).

Unsurprisingly, the deals failed; nobody could pitch in Coors, or at least not well. After the 2002 season, the Rockies attempted a new solution, storing their baseballs in a climate-controlled humidor to stop them from shrinking, drying out, and consequently traveling 400 feet over the outfield fences (the deepest of any park in baseball for this very reason) if connected with a bat. This solution worked at least in theory, but it didn't matter if nobody on the team could throw them past said bats. Signing free agents to big deals in the era of overspending had left the Rockies' farm system shallow on talent and offering no quick fixes for a team destined to bottom-feeding in a weak NL West (dubbed the Worst after the Padres nabbed a playoff spot in 2005 with an 82-80 mark).

2005 was a year significant for other reasons, although the organization didn't yet realize it. With their seventh overall first-round pick in the June amateur draft, they took Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who had fortunately dropped low enough on the table for them to pick him up; the Seattle Mariners were seriously considering him and passed at the last minute, taking catcher Jeff Clement instead. At 6'3" and 205 pounds, Tulowitzki was a big shortstop in the vein of Cal Ripken. He'd later prove that this was an apt comparison in more ways than one.

Tabbed as a decent-to-good MLB player sometime in the future, Tulowitzki took every expectation and ran with it. He spent the shortest amount of time in the minor leagues of any Rockies player, ever, never played an inning at Triple-A Colorado Springs, and first arrived in Denver in August 2006 for a late-season showing, hoping to unseat incumbent Clint Barmes for the starting shortstop job. Tulowitzki hit .240 with one home run and six RBIs in 96 at-bats over August and the remainder of September; not completely terrible, but highly touted prospects had certainly done better, leading manager Clint Hurdle to announce that it was a "competition" for Tulowitzki and Barmes coming into Spring Training 2007.

Barmes himself had once been heralded as the shortstop of the future after starting 2005 (again, a significant year) batting .400, but after the unfortunate and much-mocked "deer meat" incident where he broke his collarbone returning from a hunting trip, he was a ghost of his old self and barely cleared the Mendoza line on his return to the big leagues. But as soon as camp convened in Tucson the next year, it became clear that he was the one headed to Colorado Springs, not Tulowitzki. The 22-year-old impressed with his poise, maturity, intuition, and raw skill, and broke camp as the starting shortstop.

Unfortunately, both rookie and team started out in their accustomed rut; Tulowitzki hit sub-.200 for the first few weeks of the season and the Rockies languished to 18-27 out of the gate. Then Tulowitzki, a rookie never afraid to play the role of a veteran, let his teammates know that the losing which they'd been so used to was no longer acceptable.

The result? The best record in the NL, and second-best in baseball to the Yankees, from May 22 (70-49). The best team batting average in baseball (.280) at the end of the season, now with the humidor cutting down on the cartoonish video-game numbers. The best ERA (3.65) after the All-Star Break. And a phenomenal rookie shortstop centering the middle of the infield which became integral to the best-fielding team of all time – the Rockies' cumulative .989 fielding percentage edged out the short-held record (by the 2006 Boston Red Sox) by a few decimals. Surely Tulowitzki would be rewarded with the NL Gold Glove (despite a long-held bias against giving it to rookies) or the NL Rookie of the Year against top competition Ryan Braun.

The result? He got neither.

The Gold Gloves failed to recognize Tulowitzki's stellar glovework up the middle, instead awarding it to Jimmy Rollins. While Rollins became something of a media darling for his self-assured pronouncement that the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East (and then making good on it – while aided largely by the Mets' spectacular collapse reminiscent of Philadelphia's own team in 1964) he was an inferior defender to Tulowitzki, who pioneered the spinning, across-body throws ala his hero, Derek Jeter, that routinely landed him on SportsCenter.

Not convinced? Let's take a look at the numbers. Rollins started every one of the Phillies' 162 games at shortstop. He had 717 total chances, handling 706 of them cleanly while recording 227 putouts and 479 assists and turning 110 double plays with second baseman Chase Utley. This was good for a .985 fielding percentage (third in the NL behind Tulowitzki and San Francisco's Omar Vizquel) and a 13.23 range factor (measuring the balls outside of his numerical range that he reached instead of the third baseman or the second baseman). He had a zone rating of .824; all in all, a solid defender and a key component of the Phillies' defense (which made 89 miscues for a .986 overall FP). But Gold Glove? Not if you believe the award should go to the best defender at every position.

Tulowitzki started 155 games at shortstop, missing one or two during his early-season woes and when manager Hurdle decided to give old stalwart Barmes a shot. Despite this, he had 834 total chances, 117 more than Rollins, handling 823 of them cleanly – in other words, he made the same amount of errors in almost 13% more opportunities. Tulowitzki recorded 262 putouts, 35 more than Rollins, and had a whopping 630 assists, beating Rollins by 151. He was part of 139 double plays with second-sacker Kaz Matsui, edging Rollins/Utley by 29, and in all these categories, he was tops in the NL. His .987 fielding percentage in the hole again led all of baseball at his position.

And if this wasn't enough, his range factor beat out Rollins again; Tulowitzki reached close to 16% (16.16) of the balls that weren't in shortstop territory. His zone rating was .866, bettering Rollins by 0.042. And oh yeah, there was that fact of the best-fielding team ever (the Rockies made 68 errors for a .989 FP. In an equally egregious oversight, Todd Helton, who made 2 errors all year for an almost-stellar .999 mark, was somehow passed up for the Gold Glove in favor of Chicago's Derrek Lee, who made 7).

And yet, no Gold Glove for the mantelpiece for the rookie sensation. In a text message to the Denver Post, Tulowitzki shrugged it off, jokingly asking if he'd won the Silver Glove and pointing out that the Rockies captured the NL pennant while the Phillies watched on TBS after being upturned in three during the division series. But he still had a shot to claim postseason hardware in the NL Rookie of the Year category, considered a two-horse race between himself and Milwaukee third baseman Ryan Braun (early favorite Hunter Pence dropped out of sight after a midseason wrist injury).

Tulowitzki lost.

True, it was in one of the closest ROY votes in history (winner Braun edged Tulowitzki by two votes). It's hard to ignore the 23-year-old Braun's epic offensive season; called up on May 25, he hit .324 in 451 at-bats, with a .370 on-base percentage, a .634 slugging percentage, 34 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 26 doubles. He scored 91 runs, walked 29 times and struck out 110 times.

In contrast, Tulowitzki hit .291 in 609 at-bats, with a .359 OBP and a .479 SLG. While setting the NL rookie shortstop record for homers, he hit 24 of them, with 99 RBIs and 33 doubles, scoring 104 runs. He walked 57 times and struck out 130 times; while he had a tendency to chase, as evidenced by the high K rate, his eye was clearly better than Braun's. If judged purely on offensive merits, this was Braun's award; Tulowitzki was good but Braun was better, a pure hitter who seemed only primed to improve.

The problem was that this is an award who should recognize the most complete player, and that's where the complications begin to develop. To use the word defense for what Braun did at third base was charitable. Tulowitzki's stellar glovework has been covered; Braun, in contrast, made 26 errors in 112 games at third base (in 248 chances) for a historically bad .895 fielding percentage. To show how poor this is, consider this: Gary Sheffield fielded just under .900 with the Marlins in limited duty as a third baseman in 1993, but the last regular position player to field under .900 was 1978 Red Sox third baseman Butch Hobson at .899. And before him, you have to look back to 1916 and third baseman (there seems to be a trend) Charlie Pick of the Philadelphia Athletics, also .899. And Braun was lower than all of them. He was the worst defensive every day third baseman in a long, long time.

Consider these numbers: a 6.34 range factor and a .697 zone rating for Braun, who was routinely taken out for a defensive replacement in close games with the Brewers ahead, no matter the offense lost with his bat. And then there's this: the plus/minus rating system to judge the difference between defenders. Braun had a -41 rating, the worst for any player in baseball, which meant that he made 41 fewer plays than the average third baseman. Tulowitzki's was +35, the highest at his position again – he made 35 more plays than the average shortstop. That equals out to 80 plays and almost 50 runs a year. Braun is a player made for the AL and the fielding-shielded designated hitter.

And then again, there's this. The Brewers folded up the tent in the second half of the season, allowing the miserable Cubs to take the Central (and be rolled three-and-out by the Diamondbacks in the opening playoff round). All the Rockies did was make history with an unprecedented 21-of-22 run, at one point winning 11 in a row before having their win streak snapped by Brandon Webb on September 28 to put them in the position of having to win their last two games (and have the San Diego Padres lose their last two – and most coincidentally, against the Brewers) just to force a one-game playoff.

That night, Tulowitzki hit a grand slam and the Rockies rolled to an 11-1 win over the Diamondbacks and edged out a 4-3 victory the next day. The Brewers beat the Padres that night and then again, setting up a showdown between Colorado and San Diego on October 1 at Coors Field.

The Rockies fought valiantly for 12 innings with the score tied at 6, having a home run taken away from Garrett Atkins and incorrectly ruled a double, and then they put in Jorge Julio, who promptly served up a two-run homer to Scott Hairston. The Rockies seemed destined for a disappointing exit. Then came the bottom of the 13th inning, facing a do-or-die situation against all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman.

Kazuo Matsui led off with a double. Tulowitzki shot another one in between Scott Hairston and Mike Cameron (who, playing with a broken hand, likely couldn't have corralled it anyway) to bring the Rockies to within 8-7. Very shortly, he scored the tying run on Matt Holliday's triple, and a few minutes and a disputed slide later, the Rockies were the NL Wild Card winners at 90-73, one year after finishing a dismal 10 games south of .500 at 76-86. Don't get the Rockies wrong, they appreciate the Brewers' contribution – but Tulowitzki brought fire, skill, intangibles, a never-say-die attitude, and raw presence to the team, and yet couldn't be rewarded with anything for it? It's a shame.

Goodnight, Season

Congratulations to the 2007 World Champion Boston Red Sox. That sentence stings to type, but it's true. At the end of the day they were the better team -- they pitched better and hit better, and that's the formula that wins you championships. Our Cinderella story wasn't enough to get us over the hump over a team that's us in 2 or 3 years -- a finished product with the right mix of experience and youth. Perhaps the layoff did affect us after all, as I do not think we played the way we are capable of playing, but it's true that the Red Sox were just better.

This Series hurt and wasn't much fun to watch. I can't say I enjoyed it. But nothing can take away from what we did this year, not even slavering Sox fans and mediots claiming this proves their point about the superiority of the AL. It's still been an almost even trade-off between NL and AL for championships. AL, NL, AL, NL, AL, AL, NL, AL.

How odd it is to love a baseball team. How strange and tender I feel now... just tired, sad, and relieved, slightly hollowed out, in undeniable pain, in relief to have it end, despair of the offseason and hope for next year. Strangely enough, I love the Rockies more than ever, my devotion to them becomes fierce, my love completely untested and part of me forever. Defeat does not break me. The gloating might bother me (as I may have mentioned, the most annoying person on my campus is a Red Sox fan and I do not think that is by accident). Brian Fuentes may have single-handedly killed the last two games for us and it's time for him to be shown the door (once a season-killer, always a season-killer). I've heard tantalizing rumors about us pursuing Ian Snell. And nothing came of it, but that eighth-inning home run by Atkins still made me want to bear his children.

I find myself wondering what it is, over and over, what makes us tick as baseball fans. Pain and pleasure alike have been a big part of October, as is always. We lost the war, but we won this battle; we are the NL champs and nothing can take that away from us. What we did was unprecedented and I look forward to building on it next year. The day after the World Series is like the day after Christmas. Such a letdown... time to bring on the hot stove and see if we can improve upon the pieces we have in place. Our kids have postseason experience and hopefully won't be deer in the headlights. And we didn't choke. While admittedly not playing our best by a long shot, we just ran into a team that was hot at the right time and did the right things.

Let nobody disparage this Colorado Rockies team for how it ended. They were a part of the last game of 2007. They've climbed the peak for the first time, and I don't expect them to be content with mediocrity, now that they've had a taste of rarified air. They will be back. If nothing else, Tulo won't take this.

I love them brutally, so much that it does things like this to me. Next year can't come soon enough. I want to be back there, I hope that what they've done this year will entice others to come as well. The year is over now, I feel very sad and upset about its close, and of course I wish it could have ended differently, but if anything else, this has intensified the deep love that I will and always bear for my Colorado boys.

See you next year, Red Sox. Goodnight, season. Come soon, spring training. The offseason is dark and cold.

I submit my resignation

from Purple Row, this blog, and associated other mediums, at least for the next few days. I just cannot do this anymore. After struggling with depression over the summer, I managed to boot it when I went back to school, but it's coming back now with a vengeance (before the Series started, I might add) and I just have zero emotional energy to spare for the arguing, attacking, wrangling, weaving rollercoaster that this is putting me through.

It's sucked all the life out of something (Rockies baseball) that I love more than just about anything, and I have other things that need to be dealt with instead. Staying in bed until 3pm because I have no desire to get up, always feeling tired, depression, loneliness, homesickness, et all are the tip of the iceberg and that's all I really care to say because I'm tired of fighting about that as well. Tired of hearing that something I'm passionate about is somehow inferior, wrong, twisted, broken, not up to par, etc. Nothing against you all, but it's time for me to step back. I may watch the games, I don't know that I'll post. Happy trails.

Ouch

I disdain saying more, except: It has to get better from here. 0-1. Pah. Nothing. We'll go back to Coors 1-1 and it'll be okay.

That said, tonight felt like being sodomized with a broken bat and a fistful of tacks.

I make no apologies for that mental image.

Night all.

Well, Now We Know

And frankly, once the Indians lost Game 5, I wasn't too surprised. They had a chance to close it out at home with their ace on the mound, and choked, then went to Fenway and lost again with their other ace on the mound, and neither of them impressed at all. You just kind of knew the Sox were going to win tonight, no matter how much you hoped otherwise, and well, they did. The Boston Yankees, I should say. Arrogant fans, arrogant jerkwad players, buying up everything they need, no longer the lovable underdog, they're just the Evil Empire redux. May they be pwninated in four.

I'm sure everyone and his brother will pick the Sox in four or five. Hell, I hope they pick the Sox in "three" -- we know how well that worked for the Tigers last year. Because they're the big, bad, AL, because ESPN loves that one of their media juggernauts made it, because they have Josh Freakin' Beckett. Well, anybody bother to check the stats? Seems to me we outscored the Sawx 20-5 at Fenway in June, put a world of hurt on Schilling and Beckett, and took two out of three. See, we've been playing well since BEFORE September.

A few reasons the Rockies are going to rock the Sox:

-- Since May 22, we've had baseball's best record at 79-45; we just had to turn on the afterburners for that final hump into September.

-- We were 21-12 against the AL the past two seasons, a .636 winning percentage, and that was before we were razing everything in our path.

-- The Red Sox play in the AL, sure. They also play in the East. I bet we could have won 96 games if we got to face the Blue Jays, Devil Rays, and Orioles (the first one mediocre, the latter two totally inept) 50 or 60 times a year.

-- The Rockies have lost exactly one game since the middle of September. Why are we going to lose four in a week and a half?

-- We have better speed and defense.

-- The Red Sox aren't equipped to play at Coors. Manny in the cavernous left field? Ortiz at first base? Wakefield's knuckler isn't going to break in the thin air, and Dice-K will be thrown off by pitching at altitude. Let's not tell him about the humidor.

The one problem: the hitting. We have a .242 average in the postseason and we're going to need to turn it on against the Beantown Bombers. Hopefully, the pitching can continue the trend of damping the fuse against high-octane offenses, but the hitting is going to need to bring the sticks. But all year, and especially in October, they've found a way to get it done, however and whenever. National League Champion Rockies sounds surreal enough, but it's not the final stop for the Purple Express. I expect they'll drop the first one against Beckett (but then again, who knows?) then turn on the jets, rip off four, and win the damn thing at home in a game that Denver will always remember.

Rockies in five.

This Is Where I Wish I Was Last Night

to see this:



I wish I could teleport.

Colorado Rockies: 2007 National League Champions

It's downright crazy. I don't know that I believe it. My reaction was rather subdued; I must be dreaming. Matt Holliday getting hit by a pitch and turning into the Incredible Hulk the next at-bat, as he did tonight, crushing a monster three-run blast to make it 6-1 after Seth Smith had a pinch-hit, two-run double and Kaz had an RBI single. Of course, if I thought it was going to be easy from there, I was wrong. The shakes and the hyperventilating from when Bad Brian Fuentes reared his ugly head to allow a three-run homer to Chris Snyder in the eighth -- making it 6-4 -- are barely subsiding. Especially after that, Fuentes allows a triple, Manny Corpas comes in, strikes out Tony Clark, and for the top of the ninth -- groundout, double, popout (on 3-0) and groundout, from local goat Eric Byrnes, to punch the Rockies' ticket to their first World Series ever.

I need to not go broke on NL Champs gear. I love them all. I want to read everything about this magical night. I want four more wins and a parade through Denver. And no, I don't think this is too much. We just may be that team of destiny, and I've waited for this. And nothing will ever stop me from wishing passionately I was in Colorado, screw school and everything else. I yearn to be on 20th and Blake with all the other fans who love this team the way I do.

COLORADO ROCKIES.

2007 NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONS

Let that one settle in for a while. I sure need to.

Come On. You Knew It.

So the Rockies, a few weeks ago, were one strike away from being eliminated in a game they weren't even playing in. Trevor Hoffman against Tony Gwynn, Jr. The son of arguably the most famous Padre ever delivered the tying triple, the Brewers went on to win, and since then, the purple power has bordered on the absolutely insane. And yet again, they proved it tonight. High-scoring offenses? Hitter's parks? Slugfest predictions? Phillies in 5? Screw 'em all. The Rockies won 2-1 tonight, on the back of an RBI triple from Kaz and a pinch-hit, tiebreaking RBI single from Jeff Baker (not to mention an absolutely stellar performance from Ubaldo Jimenez, in the game of his life) to sweep the Phillies and advance to a NLCS matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Say it. Believe it. The Colorado Rockies, with four more wins, will be the National League champions.

Wrap your mind around it. The morons at TBS, aside from openly shilling for the Phils the whole time, certainly couldn't.

Breathe that purple air. Dream in a violet haze. Love your team. Believe in them. I have to say, we're looking an awful lot like destiny right now.

A lot of things can change between now and the four days some idiot decided to allocate in between the NLDS and NLCS. The Wild Wild West is no longer the Worst, it is the Best. D-backs vs. Rox, an NL winner I can get behind in the Series either way. This is crazy. I can't describe what they're doing. It's amazing, and I love it.

And I don't want to hear anything about the Phillies choking this series away. They showed up to play and they got beaten by a better team. Give them credit, it actually does happen. The Rockies were the ones that managed to stay hot following their incredible late-season surge, and to jump through hoops to avoid giving them credit and insisting the Phillies beat themselves is just lame. The Rockies hit, pitched, and played defense, and that is how you win championships.

Rocktober, baby. Keep the faith.

Add Another Chapter to the Cinderella Story

This Colorado Rockies season has already progressed beyond believability for even the cheesiest, schmaltziest sports movie. Come on, they're the (possibly, depending on your proclivities and/or geographic orientation) lovable underdogs coming into the 2007 season, their only playoff appearance a distant 12-year-old memory in which they won exactly one game before being four-and-out to the eventual Series champion Braves. They were generally picked to finish last, and I gave them a five-game improvement to a break-even 81-81 mark. (In my preseason predictions, I also really, really underestimated Tulo. I am so sorry, Troy. Call me, and we'll get an arrangement worked out for me to bear your children. Wait, what? [whistles]).

Anyway, this year, they start off 18-27, making all the naysayers look pretty much dead accurate. Then, from May 22, they have the best record in baseball second only to those damn Yankees. They never lead the Wild Card all year and on the last day of the season they manage to scratch into a tie. They play a tiebreaker at home, go down 8-6 in the bottom of the 13th against the all-time saves leader, then win on a play at the plate that will likely go down in postseason lore as The Slide (as compared to Jeremy Giambi, which was The (Non) Slide). Then they win the wild card and meet a similarly hot team in the Phillies, who went 13-4 down the stretch to blow over the hollow-men Mets. Then they win the first two on the road in front of the notoriously (un)friendly Philly crowd, including getting a grand slam from their second baseman Matsui, who hit four homers all year and whose Major League total stands at a whopping 17. Now they go home to a Coors that will be on fire, sold out, and ready to cheer their boys onto their first-ever NLCS (knock on wood).

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, of course. 2-0 is great, but it's not 3-0. We're still nine innings away from the Pre-Pre-Promised Land (Championship) series, 36 innings away from the Pre-Promised Land (the NL pennant) and a further 36 innings away from the Promised Land (World Series victory). What the team has done in terms of bearing down and focusing on each game at a time, instead of trying to comprehend the fact that they've now won 16 of 17 to close the season and charge into the spot they're currently in, cannot be understated. This is a group of young guys playing with maturity and focus beyond their years, a group that finished .5 games behind the D-backs (if both teams can hang on to their respective 2-all edges, they'll be on target to collide in a Wild Wild West NLCS, probably the sports networks' worst nightmare) for the best record in the NL. A group led by a wily veteran (Helton) up-and-coming mashers who are finally getting the attention they deserve (Holliday, Hawpe, Atkins) and a true rookie superstar (Troy Tulowitzki) they are also a supreme example of class, grace, and dignity off the field.

Here's why: The Rockies voted, unanimously, to allocate a full playoff share to Amanda Coolbaugh, the pregnant widow of AA coach Mike, killed July 22 while coaching first base for the Drillers, their minor-league affiliate. This is made even more touching and heartbreaking by the fact that Coolbaugh only joined the organization a few weeks before he died, and only a few players personally knew him, yet they are stepping up to help out those he left behind. Amanda, aside from expecting her third child any day now, has two pre-school-aged sons; Joseph, 5, and Jacob, 3. You can imagine that an AA coach isn't making very much, and the players receive 60% of the gate take for each playoff game. If they go on to the World Series, this amount could be as much as $362,000. For comparison, Atkins makes $400,000 -- that's almost doubling his salary.

And yet this group of young players, without telling the media, without being prodded by management to repair their image, quietly chose to give it to someone who needed it more than they do. For comparison, the Rockies' payroll is $54.4 million, and 30% of that ($16.6 million) is going to Todd. A fair number of them are making the league minimum, and the second-highest-paid player after Helton is Holliday, who's making $4.4 million (the potential and deserving NL MVP, folks). It is so incredibly rare to hear about players voluntarily turning down more money and giving it to someone who doesn't have as much, in a time of great need, that it's just an amazingly classy gesture by a team of not just players, but friends, fellow community members, and men. These players directly passed on padding their own pockets like so many of their peers, and it shines a spotlight on the quality of the character in that clubhouse.

Contrast this to the main Broncos story, which features Travis Henry getting arrested again for marijuana possession and the revelation he has nine children by nine different women. (Wow, the football version of Elijah Dukes). The Rockies are not only winners, they are the epitome of humbleness, class, and selflessness. I could simply not be more proud of them (but I'm sure that if they kept moving up, it might be possible...) To judge from the comments on ESPN, the Rockies not only pulled off a miraculous late-season run, they are winning the hearts of America by reminding us that not all professional athletes are lowlife thugs. It is a refreshing and truly touching change. I salute them.

One other thing, in case you're having different ideas about where this altruism stems from: You may have heard a lot about the erroneous "Team Jesus" article that got published in USA Today, suggesting the Rockies only draft Christian players and that their clubhouse is some weird version of Bible camp, where Maxims, Playboys, and sexually explicit music are banned and they spend all their time praying and reading Scripture. I feel as if I have to refute this misperception at every turn, so here we go again: That article was a factually incorrect exaggeration based on the beliefs of the front office and a few of the players. And even those players (Cook, Helton, Holliday) aren't happy at all with that story and how they were portrayed.

Fact is, despite the great diversity of backgrounds and ethnic origins, there is no schism among the guys whatsoever; as Cook puts it, "I've never even seen a Bible out in the open in the clubhouse." And far from proselytizing every chance he gets, Holliday, who is religious, likes to keep it quiet and doesn't think it has to do with baseball. The guys in the clubhouse love each other and pull for each other hard. And we look for players with character as well as talent, just so we don't end up with Kyle Farnsworth-like @$$holes on the team (and if even that was so important, how did Jose Mesa end up here for one brief and deeply forgettable season?) Not necessarily religious. There are a few guys who are, as there are on any club, but it's by no means the "Team Jesus" that certain bloggers would have you believe. We're not sanctimonious holier-than-thou missionaries, we're a diverse blend of young guys having fun. Jason Hirsh, who is Jewish, was asked about the supposed Christianity bias in an interview with MLB Trade Rumors a while back, and said he hadn't noticed a thing, and had never played with a nicer and more welcoming group of guys. He was excited to be a Rockie, and this was well before our fairy tale run, so all the more power to him...

Anybody and everybody is welcome in the clubhouse, which is fantastically tight-knit and supportive of all comers. Not all the guys are Christians, and those that are are the best kind, of outreaching, supportive, genuinely nice and humble individuals instead of narrow-minded, vitriol-spewing bigots. Those that are religious are not unduly dragging it into the public eye. You should wikipedia the Rockies and read their response to the article, published in the Denver Post, and if you watched the Rockies Spotlight on Holliday, you'll see him roll his eyes and refer to the USA Today reporter as "that guy." This is not some sort of exclusive "good ol' boys" club.

Hopefully we got that straightened out; I'm tired of having to refute it at every turn. And no matter what started it, the gesture to a grieving widow was a fantastically classy, mature, and professional thing to do, and hopefully the boys can go out in front of a fanatically supportive home crowd and finish the job in three, moving on again with their fairytale season. Coolbaugh's two sons will be throwing out the first pitch -- how more Hollywood can you get?! -- and since Denver has gone deep purple with Rockies fever, it would be great to nail the thing down on the first crack. God, so nervous.

P.S. Colorado niceness has to go out the window. I want people above the 'pen razzing Jamie Moyer during his warmups, and I want Rollins to be as viciously treated as Holliday was in Philly. We're real baseball fans now, not just people going to a game to spend an evening, and it needs to be recognized. Besides, if we lose Game 3, Mark Redman is starting a potential Game 4, and the last thing we want is to send the series back to Philly tied and Cole Hamels on the hill for the clincher. Beating him once was great, but let's not count on having to do it again.

GO ROCKIES!

Purple Fever Believer

Jesus Fucking Tapdancing Christ on a Toaster.

It's 3 am and thank God I have no class tomorrow, because I doubt I can sleep. The adrenaline is kind of wearing off. Kind of. After waking up on the heels of 4 hours of sleep for morning class, feeling too apprehensive to eat anything except from a croissant in the morning and some chicken fingers and an apple in the evening. I went to class in the morning. I didn't eat lunch because I felt too sick with nerves. I almost passed out with exhaustion in my afternoon class, and my focus wandered badly as we finished up the last leg of 2 hours of psychology. Knowing I was going to need all the fortitude I could muster for the night's forthcoming tilt, I went home and slept for three hours or so, from 3:45 until 6:45. I woke up at dusk, feeling so nervous I could barely breathe, and added the Rockies jersey and hat to my shirt, necklace, and jacket. Then, scared but hopeful, I sallied forth to find my friend Nick and the TV he had promised to purloin for us. We chased off, or briefly assimilated, certain annoying Red Sox fans who wanted to hijack it to watch Monday Night Football (the Pats won again, of course, and who the fuck cares about them? This is my team fighting for October, people).

Game started. I was whooping, rooting, cheering, and cursing like a sailor. I was pleased as hell to see the two runs off Peavy in the first inning on a deep sac fly by Mr. Rockie Todd Helton and and an RBI single by Garrett, was stunned (but in a good way) when Yorvit actually hit a homer, and then felt like axe-chopping something when Dragon Slayer Josh Fogg lost his sword and gave up a grand slam to Adrian Gonzalez. Another run on a forceout made it 5-3, and with Peavy on the mound, you might think this was a problem.

It was not. Peavy was mortal. He yielded a solo shot to Helton in the fourth, and then a combination of ROY double/MVP single tied the game in the fifth. In the bottom of the sixth, pinch-hitter Seth Smith blasted a triple and scored on Kaz's sac fly; thanks to another defensive miscue by replacement Pods center fielder Brady Clark, Tulo hit the second triple of the inning, but failed to score when Holliday struck out. Every time he was up, however, the whole stadium was chanting, "M-V-P." It was amazing, chill-inducing, and insane.

In the bottom of the seventh, the umps blatantly missed a call on Atkins, ruling that his ball that went over the wall, hit a chair and bounced back, was a double instead of a homer. Poor Garrett has been fucked out of two homers this year, and yet again, the Rockies couldn't go for the jugular, sitting on a 6-5 advantage into the eighth. Brian Fuentes came in, admittedly got into a little trouble, and should have gotten out of the inning intact, but Holliday completely misplayed a Brian Giles fly ball and let it go over his head for a double. I slapped my hand to my face and moaned, as all the while the morons broadcasting the game on TBS salivated and continued to ride Padre jock hard enough to leave carpet burns. The Rockies couldn't come through in the eighth and Manny Corpas blew through a six-pitch ninth inning; that should have closed the game out in regulation, but since the umps had, of course, fucked poor Garrett out of his homer, it dragged on, and on, and on, close to five hours of a grueling emotional marathon. Matt Herges wriggled out of jams, the Rockies couldn't touch a ridiculous Padres 'pen, and when Jorge Julio came on for the thirteenth, I groaned aloud.

Sure enough, Julio bore out my bad feeling, walking the first hitter he faced before allowing a two-run homer to Scott Hairston, for the love of Christ. It made me sick to see the Padres whooping it up in the dugout, and I admit it, I could not bear to see the season ended on a such a bitter note, losing a winnable game in front of our raucous and screaming home crowd, silenced forever and left to wonder what could have been. I left the TV room and began the long walk back to my dorm, feeling brutally upset and bitter, broken, hollow, and empty. Basically like shit, in other words, cursing the umps for missing Atkins' homer, Matty for missing the flyball, and Jorge Julio for existing. I flung down my stuff on my bed and naturally turned on Gameday, just to see how it would end. Ramon Ortiz, of all people, came in and snuffed the rally in the top of the thirteenth, and then Trevor Hoffman, he of the all-time saves record, came in to try to put the finishing touches on a monstrously aggravating and heartbreaking loss.

He didn't. Kaz Matsui fought off tough pitches and ripped a double deep into the left-center field gap. Coors began to make some noise again, after being deadened by the Hairston homer. Then the Rookie of the Year came up and set the torch to them again with a matching blast, scoring Matsui as he rolled into second with a double. And then...

Matty had been somewhat of a scapegoat earlier in the night for blowing the flyball and striking out twice with runners in scoring position. With one swing, he sent Coors off the edge. I'm not kidding. I was watching this on Gameday, but I saw the video and... the noise the crowd makes when he lights into that ball is unbelievable. It and Brian Giles bang off the right-field scoreboard, the place is in pandemonium, Tulo scores to tie it, and Matty is safe at third with a triple. As you can imagine, my phone began ringing right now, and the first call I fielded was from Nick. He made no bones about it, "GET BACK HERE! NOW!"

Another friend called as I tore down the stairs, fumbling for my keys. I sprinted across campus back to the TV room, and I went belting up the stairs in time to see a mosh pit on the TV -- Jamey Carroll, placed in to pinch-run for Atkins after it was a "double," came through with a shallow liner to right field, Holliday charged home, dived face-first, swiped the plate with his hand as Barrett dropped the ball (dodgy call, but hey, it was karmic justice, the game should have been over in regulation) and came up bloodied and dirtied, probably feeling the best he had in his life, as his team, his city, and his mates went absofuckinglutely berserk. I screamed and threw myself on Nick. I shook. I launched myself across the room to hug his friend, who I don't even know that well. I shrieked at the top of my lungs. My legs would not support me, I fell down. A few people came up the stairs to ask if I was all right, since I was screaming bloody murder. Nick was like, "The Rockies made the playoffs, it's cool."

I screamed. I threw myself in Nick's arms again. I held on. I fell to my knees. I had earlier promised to freak out on an epic level if the Rockies won, and they did. The Holliday call was justice for screwing Atkins out of the game-winning HR, and holy shit. Holy. Fucking. Shit. I have no classes tomorrow, won't be in bed before 4 and may sleep all day, have homework to do that's not getting done as I live and die with my team, and I don't care. This is amazing. The Colorado Rockies are one of four NL entrants still standing with a run that defies explanation. We didn't even lead the NL wild card. We weren't tied until yesterday. And we beat the best pitcher in baseball and the all-time saves leader. I swear, you can't script this. Even Hollywood would reject it as too corny.

I don't care if Holliday supposedly didn't touch the plate. We won. He lay there dazed, Tulo flung himself over Matty, then jumped into the mosh pit. Fireworks went off. A town believed. A team fulfilled a destiny. 90-73 and a wild-card spot into the postseason and a first-round matchup with Philly. Two strong offenses, two suspect pitching staffs, the first stop on the way to immortality.

Jeff Francis vs. Cole Hamels. 3 ET Wednesday.

See you in October.

GO ROCKIES!!!!!!!!!!!

D-Day

T-minus six hours, and I am a jumping, twitching, sick-with-nerves wreck. Can't eat, could barely sleep (I got about 4 hours, partly because of being too amped to lie down, and partly because some idiots with mowers decided 7:45 AM was the perfect time to do landscaping outside my window). Nervous as hell, already wearing my Rockies shirt, jacket, and necklace, with jersey and hat to be added at gametime. I'll be watching that with my friend Nick, and I'm pretty sure I'll have a coronary before it's over. I need to get off the Internet and stop reading about it; I know what it is, what is at stake, and I want it more than I've wanted anything, which is saying a lot. The Rockies are playing baseball in October but they need one more win, albeit off Jake Peavy with Josh Fogg up against him, in front of a sold-out, amped, raucous crowd that has the purple fever and just won't stop believin', to really play baseball in October. This is the third shot for the Padres, and the Rockies have been lawn-mowing everything in the way. Peavy may be pitching, but I think we still have the advantage.

I believe they will do it. I am dead set they will. That doesn't stop me from dying along the way.

GO ROCKIES!!!!!!!!!!